地球科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 814 -825. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.08.0814

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

我国 1030天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策
金荣花( ),马杰( ),任宏昌,尹姗,蔡芗宁,黄威   
  1. 国家气象中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-24 修回日期:2019-07-19 出版日期:2019-08-10
  • 通讯作者: 马杰 E-mail:jinrh@cma.gov.cn;majie@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    夏季高温中期预报方法研究”(2015BAC03B04);气象预报业务关键技术发展专项“发展11-30天延伸期客观定量预报关键技术”(编号:YBGJXM(2018)04)

Advances and Development Countermeasures of 1030 days Extended-range Forecasting Technology in China

Ronghua Jin( ),Jie Ma( ),Hongchang Ren,Shan Yin,Xiangning Cai,Wei Huang   

  1. National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2019-04-24 Revised:2019-07-19 Online:2019-08-10 Published:2019-10-11
  • Contact: Jie Ma E-mail:jinrh@cma.gov.cn;majie@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • About author:Jin Ronghua (1969-), female, Mudanjiang City, Heilongjiang Province, Professor. Research areas include weather analysis and large-scale dynamic process research. E-mail: jinrh@cma.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Science and Technology Support Program "The study of medium range technological forecasting about heavy precipitation in typical rainy season and the heat wave process in summer"(2015BAC03B04);The Project for Development of Key Techniques in Meteorological Forecasting Operation “Development of objective quantitative forecasting key technology in the extend range from 11-30 days” (No.YBGJXM(2018)04)

10~30天延伸期预报技术是世界性难题,但是延伸期时效预报在我国气象防灾减灾决策服务和重大活动气象保障服务中起着非常重要的作用。近10年来,我国在10~30天延伸期预报技术领域进行了有益的探索,并取得了一定的进展。在总结延伸期预报理论和预报技术的基础上,系统介绍我国延伸期预报业务技术的进展;并结合数值模式发展趋势和未来延伸期预报的需求,分析我国延伸期预报业务中存在的具体技术问题和挑战,最后提出未来延伸期预报业务的发展思路。

The 10~30 days extended-range forecasting technology is a worldwide problem, but it plays a very important role in meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making services and meteorological support services for major activities in China. In the past decade, China has carried out beneficial explorations in 10-30 days extended-range forecasting theory and technology and made some progress. Based on the introduction of the theory and technology of extended-range forecast, this paper systematically introduced the technical progress of China’s extended-range forecasting service; combining with the development trend of numerical model and the demand of future extended-range forecast, here we analyzed the specific technical problems and challenges in China’s extended-range forecast service, and finally proposed the development ideas of future extended-range forecast service.

中图分类号: 

图1 无缝隙天气—气候预报示意图
Fig. 1 The schematic diagram of seamless prediction of weather and climate
表1 S2S数据集包含的 11个数值模式具体参数
Table 1 The specific parameters of 11 numerical models in S2S datasets
图2 ECMWF延伸期预报产品示例
Fig. 2 The example of extended-range forecast products in ECMWF
图3 NCEP延伸期预报产品示例
Fig. 3 The example of extended-range forecast products in NCEP
图4 中央气象台延伸期预报产品示例
Fig.4 The example schematic diagram from the National Meteorological Center of CMA
图5 20181796168 h暴雨TS评分
Fig.5 The score of TS above 50 mm in leading period from 96168 h from January to July in 2018
图6 延伸期时效后处理技术效果评估示例
Fig.6 The example schematic diagram for the model post-process technology performance in extended range
图7 延伸期预报业务技术体系架构图
Fig.7 The technical architecture diagram for the extended- range forecast operation
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