北大西洋涛动—欧洲阻塞及其对极端暴雪影响的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.06.0581.

地球科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 581 -594. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.06.0581.

所属专题：极端天气；

北大西洋涛动—欧洲阻塞及其对极端暴雪影响的研究进展

姚遥 ¹(

), 罗德海 ^1, ²

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所,东亚区域气候—环境重点实验室, 北京 100029
2.海洋科学与技术青岛协同创新中心,中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100

收稿日期:2016-04-14 修回日期:2016-05-28 出版日期:2016-06-20
基金资助:
*国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“欧洲阻塞的形态特征及其对欧亚极端天气的影响”(编号:41505075);国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球气候变化下北半球低频模态的演变特征和机理以及与极端天气事件之间的关系”(编号:41430533)资助

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Europe Blocking and Their Impacts on Extreme Snowstorms: A Review

Yao Yao ¹( ), Dehai Luo ^1, ²

1.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, MOE, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100,China

Received:2016-04-14 Revised:2016-05-28 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-10
About author:
First author:Yao Yao(1985-), male, Tai’an City, Shandong Province, Research Assistant. Research areas include climate dynamic and extreme climate.E-mail:yaoyao@tea.ac.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Pattern characteristics of Europe blocking and its impact on Eurasia extreme weather” (No.41505075);The Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Evolution characteristics and mechanisms of low-frequency modes in the Northern Hemisphere under global climate and its relation with extreme weather events” (No.41430533)

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北大西洋涛动(NAO)和阻塞等大气大尺度低频模态对北半球天气气候起着重要的调控作用。首先回顾了NAO年代际变率物理机制的研究进展,并从季节内尺度NAO位相转换的角度讨论了其对NAO年代际变率的影响。介绍了NAO与阻塞时空关系的研究进展,讨论了年代际NAO变率对阻塞时空分布的可能影响。另外,以2次极端暴雪天气事件为例,从观测事实方面讨论了NAO和阻塞对极端暴雪天气的影响机制,同时从理论模型方面部分解释了其可能的物理机制。总结了有关NAO和阻塞理论模式的研究进展,介绍了非线性多尺度相互作用模型的发展过程和应用。最后,基于对以上研究进展的总结,给出了NAO-阻塞—极端暴雪天气的机制示意图,概括部分研究的特点和不同之处,并提出了该领域有待解决的几个问题和未来可能的研究方向,为相关的研究提供参考。

关键词: 北大西洋涛动(NAO), 欧洲阻塞, 变率, 极端暴雪, 理论模型

Large-scale, low frequency modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and blocking, have an important modulation on the northern hemisphere weather and climate. In this paper, the physical mechanism studies on inter-decadal and decadal variability of NAO and blocking were summarized. The relationship between NAO regime transitions and the interannual variability of NAO in winter during was examined by using a statistical approach. The time-space relationship between NAO and European blocking were discussed. Based on two extreme cold and snowstorm events, the impacts on local weather especially the extreme events within the life cycle (two weeks) of the NAO and blocking were further examined. It was found that the frequently occurrence of the Eurasian extreme snowstorm was closely related to the special combination of NAO and blocking regime. In addition, the development of theoretical modes for NAO and blocking was discussed and issues that remain to be solved were proposed.

Key words: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Europe blocking, Variability, Extreme snowstorms, Theoretical model.

中图分类号:

P426.63+4

图1 NAO的空间结构和时间变化序列
(a)冬季(NDJFM)平均NAO指数与北半球500 hPa位势高度距平场回归所得空间分布(单位:gpm),是从20°N开始绘制,纬度线间隔为5°;(b)1970—2011年对应的PC标准化(std dev)冬季(NDJFM)年平均NAO指数(据参考文献[38]修改)其中 P1代表1978 —1994年,P2代表1995 —2011年,红色直线代表2 个阶段的线性趋势线,黑色虚线代表2 次5点平滑曲线

Fig.1 The NAO pattern and its time series
(a)NAO pattern obtained by applying the winter monthly NAO index regression onto the 500 hPa geopotential height (unit: gpm) anomalies,the latitude lines are at 5 degree intervals starting with 20°N at the edges in (a); (b) Time series of normalized winter-mean NAO index obtained from PC for five months from November to March (NDJFM) from 1970 to 2011 (modified after reference[38]),P1 represents 1978-1994 and P2 represents 1995-2011, the red line represents the linear trend for P1 and P2

图2 北大西洋—欧洲地区1978—2011年冬季平均阻塞频率(%)的分布(据参考文献[38]修改)
图中频率单位为阻塞天数占总冬季天数的百分比(%)

Fig.2 Horizontal distributions of the winter-mean blocking frequency (%) over North Atlantic-Europe area during the periods from 1978 to 2011 (modified after reference[38])
The blocking frequency is defined as the number of days with blocking expressed as a percentage of total number of days for the winter (November-March)

图3 P2与P1阶段冬季平均阻塞频率的差异分布(P2减P1)(据参考文献[38]修改)
图中阴影部分为通过置信度95%检验的距平区域;深色为正距平,浅色为负距平

Fig.3 Horizontal distributions of the winter-mean blocking frequency (%)for the P2-P1 difference (modified after reference[38])
The dark (for positive) and light (for negative) shadings denote the regions above the 95% confidence level for a two-sided student’s-test

图4 极端暴雪事件的NAO指数和阻塞环流场
(a)2012年1月13日至2月15日逐日NAO指数序列 ^{[

34
]},(a)中红线为欧洲地区平均温度距平变化,黑实线、圈线及虚线分别代表海平面气压LW指数,500 hPa的LW指数以及PC指数; 蓝色标记线表示NAO+至ENAO-的位相转换过程; (b)2013年12月12日阻塞环流形式场 ^{[

58
]},(b)中实线代表500 hPa位势高度等值线,矢量箭头代表500 hPa的UV合成风场,蓝色阴影代表温度负距平,绿色代表降水区域。红色虚线代表急流轴位置,红色方框代表中东地区

Fig.4 The NAO indices and blocking flow for two extreme snowstrom eevents
(a) Time series of the normalized daily NAO index during the period from 13 January to 16 February,2012 ^{[

34
]},The PC index is marked with the dotted line, and the SLP (500 hPa) LW index is the solid line without (with) dots. The time series of the normalized SAT anomaly averaged over European continent is shown in red line. The NAO+ and ENAO- epochs are indicated with blue marker;(b) Horizontal fields distribution on 12 December 2013 ^{[

58
]},In (b), the height contours are drawn from 5 400 to 5 700 gpm precipitation area is indicated with green dots. The negative temperature anomalies are plotted with the blue shading. The red box shows the Middle East region and the red dashed line indicates the jet stream position

图5 基于NMI模式(CI=0.3)得到的一个NAO+事件的总流场( Ψ _T)演变过程(从第0天到第51天)(据参考文献[59]修改)
其中下游欧洲地区激发出一个阻塞环流结构 H代表反气旋, L代表气旋或者槽; x坐标的1.0处左边代表北大西洋地区,右边代表欧洲地区

Fig.5 Total streamfunction ( Ψ _T) fields (CI=0.3) of an NAO+ event obtained from the extended NMI model for the strong jet cases (modified after reference[59])
A blocking pattern is motivated in Europe region downstream the Atlantic region. H( L) denotes the ridge or anticyclone (trough or cyclone).The left (right) area of x=1.0 represents North Atlantic (European continent)

图6 NAO与欧洲阻塞对中东地区极端暴雪影响的物理机制示意图
图中左边大西洋地区(90°W~0°)对应NAO偶极子结构,下游欧洲地区(0°~60°E)为西北—东南向倾斜的阻塞偶极子结构。红色粗实线为西风急流的示意,细实线为暖空气(红色)和冷空气(蓝色)的入侵方式,绿色阴影区为暴雪区域示意

Fig.6 Schematic diagram of NAO and Europe blocking and their physical mechanism for the Middle East snowstorm
The dipole in left Atlantic region(90°W~0°)is the NAO pattern, downstream Europe region (0°~60°E) is the blocking dipole pattern with a northwest-southeast tilting. The thick red solid line represents the westerly jet and the thin solid line means the path for warm (in red color) and cold air (in blue color). Green shaded region indicates the snowstorm area

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