南亚高压低频振荡与长江中下游地区旱涝的关系

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.05.0529.

利用1960—2013年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和长江中下游地区164个气象站逐日降水资料,通过合成分析、小波分析和带通滤波等方法研究了夏季南亚高压低频振荡与长江中下游地区降水低频变化的关系。结果表明:在典型旱涝年,青藏高原200 hPa高度上u,v低频主周期与长江中下游地区夏季降水主周期一致。在降水偏多的夏季,青藏高原—中国中东部—西太平洋沿岸上空,自西向东存在气旋—反气旋—气旋的低频波列,低频反气旋控制着我国东部地区,低频气旋控制着青藏高原北部地区;降水偏少年则相反。涝年长江中下游地区低频降水与200 hPa青藏高原大气低频变化密切相关,当青藏高原东北部及长江中下游地区北风偏强、贝加尔湖地区南风偏强时,降水偏多;反之则偏少。这种低频振荡波列的传播主要是由中国东北北部—日本南部向中国西南方向频散传播。然而,在旱年两者关系不明确,需做更进一步的研究。

关键词: 长江中下游, 旱涝, 低频振荡, 南亚高压

Based on the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and the daily rainfall data of ground observation at 164 weather stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1960 to 2013, the relationship between South Asia high low frequency oscillation and the drought and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed using a composite analysis, wavelet analysis and band-pass filtering analysis method. The results indicated that in the typical drought and flood years, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 200 hPa atmosphere u, v low-frequency primary cycle and the summer rainfall cycle over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were the same. In more summer rainfall, from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to east China and west Pacific coast, there existed a cycle-anticyclone-cycle low frequency wave train. Low-frequency anticyclone controlled eastern China and the low-frequency cyclone controlled the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In drought years, results were opposite. In flood years, the precipitation of low frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and that of 200 hPa atmospheric low frequency change of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was closely related. When the northerly wind in the northeast part of the the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was strong, and Lake Baikal southerly wind was strong, there was more precipitation. On the contrary, precipitation was less. The low frequency oscillation wave train was mainly spread from the northeast of China and Japan's southern to China’s southwest. However, in drought years, the relationship between them was not clear and needed to be further studied.

Key words: Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, Drought and flood, Low-frequency oscillation, South Asia high.

中图分类号:

P424.3

图1 长江中下游地区164个气象站分布示意图

Fig.1 Locations of 164 weather stations in the middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

图2 1960—2013年长江中下游夏季降水标准化时间序列

Fig.2 Normalized time series of summer rainfall from 1960 to 2013 in the middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

表1 1960—2013年长江中下游夏季典型旱涝年份

Table 1 List of typical drought and flood years in summer from 1960 to 2013 in the middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

年型	典型年份
涝年	1969年、1980年、1993年、1995年、1996年、1998年、1999年、2002年
旱年	1961年、1966年、1971年、1972年、1978年、1981年、1985年、2013年

表1 1960—2013年长江中下游夏季典型旱涝年份

Table 1 List of typical drought and flood years in summer from 1960 to 2013 in the middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

年型	典型年份
涝年	1969年、1980年、1993年、1995年、1996年、1998年、1999年、2002年
旱年	1961年、1966年、1971年、1972年、1978年、1981年、1985年、2013年

图3 长江中下游涝年(a)、旱年(b)4~9月逐日降水合成序列的小波分析
阴影区表示通过90%的显著性检验,虚线表示边界影响

Fig.3 Wavelet analysis of daily rainfall amounts over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the period from April to September for flood years(a)and drought years(b)
Shaded areas denote areas exceeding the confidence level of 90%,and dashed lines represent the boundary effect

图4 30~60 d(a)和10~30 d(b)滤波的旱涝年长江中下游4~9月降水量序列
实心圆表示涝年,空心圆表示旱年

Fig.4 Time series of the 30~60 d oscillation(a) and the 10~30 d oscillation(b) of rainfall amounts during the period from April to September over the mid-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
Solid circles and hollow circles denote flood and drought years respectively

图5 青藏高原200 hPa风场小波分析和功率谱分析
(a)涝年纬向风小波分析;(b)涝年经向风小波分析;(c)旱年纬向风小波分析;(d)旱年经向风小波分析;(e)旱年经向风功率谱;(f)涝年经向风功率谱(阴影区通过90%的显著性检验,虚线表示边界影响,红色虚线表示通过95%的红噪声检验)

Fig.5 Wavelet analysis and power spectrum of the wind of the 200 hPa Tibet Plateau
(a)Wavelet analysis of flood years for zonal wind;(b)Wavelet analysis of flood years for meridional wind; (c)Wavelet analysis of drought years for zonal wind;(d)Wavelet analysis of drought years for meridional wind;(e)Power spectrum of drought years for meridional wind;(f)Power spectrum of flood years for meridional wind(shaded areas denote areas exceeding the confidence level of 90%,and dashed lines represent the boundary effect, red dashed lines represent exceeding the red noise confidence level of 95%)

图6 夏季平均低频风场(单位:m/s)
A代表低频反气旋,C代表低频气旋;(a)旱年10~30 d滤波的200 hPa风场;(b)涝年30~60 d滤波的200 hPa风场;(c) 旱年10~30 d滤波的850 hPa风场; (d) 涝年30~60 d滤波的850 hPa风场

Fig.6 Low-frequency wind field of summer(unit: m/s)
A denote low-frequency anticyclone,C denotes low-frequency cyclone;(a)10~30 d filtered 200 hPa winds in drought years;(b)30~60 d filtered 200 hPa winds in flood years; (c) 10~30 d filtered 850 hPa winds in drought years;(d) 30~60 d filtered 200 hPa winds in flood

图7 夏季平均低频垂直速度场(单位:Pa/s×1000)
(a) 旱年10~30 d滤波的850 hPa垂直速度场;(b)涝年30~60 d滤波的850 hPa垂直速度场

Fig.7 Low-frequency vertical velocity field of summer(unit: Pa/s×1000)
(a) 10~30 d filtered 850 hPa vertical velocity in drought years; (b) 30~60 d filtered 850 hPa vertical velocity in flood years

图8 夏季低频经向风沿30°N的时间—经度剖面图(单位:m/s)
(a)旱年10~30 d低频经向风沿30°N的时间—经度剖面图;(b)旱年30~60 d低频经向风沿30°N的时间—经度剖面图;(c)涝年10~30 d低频经向风沿30°N的时间—经度剖面图;(d)涝年30~60 d低频经向风沿30°N的时间—经度剖面图

Fig.8 Longitude-time cross-section over 30°N of low-frequency meridional wind (unit:m/s)
(a)Longitude-time cross-section over 30°N of 10~30 d low-frequency meridional wind in drought years; (b)Longitude-time cross-section over 30°N of 30~60 d low-frequency meridional wind in drought years; (c)Longitude-time cross-section over 30°N of 10~30 d low-frequency meridional wind in flood years; (d)Longitude-time cross-section over 30°N of 30~60 d low-frequency meridional wind in flood years

图9 30~60 d滤波的长江中下游低频降水时间序列与30~60 d滤波的低频200 hPa经向风场的时滞相关
阴影区为信度检验超过99%的显著相关区,负时滞天数表示经向风超前于降水;正时滞天数表示经向风落后于降水

Fig.9 Lagged correlations (shading) between the 30~60 d filtered the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River rainfall and the 30~60 d filtered 200 hPa meridional wind
Critical positive(negative) values of the correlation exceeding the 99% significance level are darkly(lightly) shaded, negative lag such as -20 indicates that the meridional wind leads the rainfall, the opposite for positive lag

图10 10~30 d滤波的长江中下游低频降水时间序列与10~30 d滤波的低频200 hPa经向风场的时滞相关
阴影区为信度检验超过99%的显著相关区,负时滞天数表示经向风超前于降水;正时滞天数表示经向风落后于降水

Fig.10 Lagged correlations (shading) between the 10~30 d filtered the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River rainfall and the 10~30 d filtered 200 hPa meridional wind
Critical positive(negative) values of the correlation exceeding the 99% significance level are darkly(lightly) shaded, negative lag such as -12 indicates that the meridional wind leads the rainfall, the opposite for positive lag

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Relationship between South Asia High Low Frequency Oscillation and the Drought and Flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

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Relationship between South Asia High Low Frequency Oscillation and the Drought and Flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River