东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.09.0956

由于大气环流模式对东亚地区区域气候特征的模拟存在很大不足，采用区域气候模式模拟该地区特殊的季风气候成为目前发展的一个重要研究方向，并取得了显著的研究进展。通过回顾当前东亚地区区域气候模拟的现状，表明大部分区域气候模式都不同程度地模拟出了东亚季风区持续性洪涝现象的大尺度环流特征和演变过程，再现了东亚各主要气候区降水的年际、季节和季节内变化及主要雨带的季节进退和降水的时空演变特征。但是，大部分模式没能很好地模拟出大尺度特征的强度和量值，模拟的温度和降水存在系统性偏差。原因分析表明，进一步完善和改进区域气候模式的物理过程参数化方案及动力框架可以改善模拟效果。最后对区域气候模式未来的发展给出展望。

关键词: 区域气候模拟, 研究进展, 降水模拟, 东亚地区

In recent years, there are still some difficulties in reproducing the climatological property in East Asian region by means of the General Climate Models (GCMs). Therefore, the researches of adopting the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have become one significant aspect of simulating the special monsoon climatology in this region and make great progress. In this paper, firstly, the regional climate simulations in East Asia region are simply summarized. Research shows that a majority of RCMs are able to reproduce the climate characteristics of East Asia monsoon region with different extent success, including (1) the average circulation feature; (2) the large-scale features and the evolution processes of the severe and prolonged drought and flood events;(3) the inter-annual, seasonal and intra-seasonal precipitation variation in different monsoon climate region; (4) the seasonal march of major rain belt and the precipitation spatial-temporal characteristics. However, there are still a number of bias and deficiencies. It also emphasizes that (1) the intensity and magnitude of large-scale features are not reproduced flawlessly climatologically; (2) The simulated temperature and precipitation generally show some systematic biases, what's more, parts of the rain-belt are shifted northward about 2~3 latitude. Numerous investigations present that it will improve the simulation results of RCMs by ameliorating and perfecting the physical process parameterization schemes (including the cloud-radiation transfer process, the cumulus-convective precipitation process, the boundary layer physics process and the land surface process and so on) and the models' dynamical configurations (including the selection of research region, the lateral boundary condition and the spatial resolution and otherwise), as well as the appropriate treatment on the large-scale terrain features in the East Asian. In the end, the future prospect of RCMs is discussed.

Key words: East Asian region, Precipitation simulation., Regional climate modeling, Research progress

中图分类号:

P461

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The Progress of RCMs Simulation on East Asia Region