地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 1090 -1104. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1090

上一篇    

中国全球业务化海洋学预报系统的发展和应用
王辉 1, 2( ), 万莉颖 1, 2, 秦英豪 1,,A; *( ), 王毅 1, 杨学联 1, 刘洋 1, 邢建勇 1, 陈莉 1, 王彰贵 1, 仉天宇 1, 刘桂梅 1, 杨清华 1, 吴湘玉 1, 刘钦燕 3, 王东晓 3   
  1. 1.国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081
    2.国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081
    3.热带海洋环境国家重点实验室,中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广东 广州 510301
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-10 修回日期:2016-09-12 出版日期:2016-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 秦英豪 E-mail:wangh@nmefc.gov.cn;qinyh@nmefc.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“热带太平洋三种增暖事件次表层海温演变特征及机理研究”(编号:41406042);热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所)开放课题项目“全球海洋资料同化系统在热带太平洋三种不同海水增暖事件中盐度变化特征分析”(编号:LTO1303)资助

Development and Application of the Chinese Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System

Hui Wang 1, 2( ), Liying Wan 1, 2, Yinghao Qin 1, *( ), Yi Wang 1, Xuelian Yang 1, Yang Liu 1, Jianyong Xing 1, Li Chen 1, Zhanggui Wang 1, Tianyu Zhang 1, Guimei Liu 1, Qinghua Yang 1, Xiangyu Wu 1, Qinyan Liu 3, Dongxiao Wang 3   

  1. 1.National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081, China
    2.Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
    3.State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
  • Received:2016-07-10 Revised:2016-09-12 Online:2016-10-20 Published:2016-10-20
  • Contact: Yinghao Qin E-mail:wangh@nmefc.gov.cn;qinyh@nmefc.gov.cn
  • About author:

    First author:Wang Hui(1962-), male,Suixi City, Anhui Province, Professor. Research areas include ocean forecasting, operational oceanography and ocean dynamics.E-mail:wangh@nmefc.gov.cn

    *Corresponding author:Qin Yinghao(1983-), male, Jiaozuo City, Henan Province,Associate professor. Research areas include data assimilation, numerical simulation and ocean forecasting.E-mail:qinyh@nmefc.gov.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Spatial and temporal variability of sub-surface temperature in the three kinds of Pacific Ocean warming events and associated dynamic mechanisms”(No.41406042);The State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences “Salinity variability in the three kinds of Pacific Ocean warming events using a global ocean data assimilation system”(No.LTO1303)
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中国全球业务化海洋学预报系统是国家海洋环境预报中心在国内首次构建的全球—大洋—近海3级嵌套的全球业务化海洋学预报系统体系,系统稳定高效业务运行,通过多种方式实时提供和发布全球多尺度多要素的海流、海浪、海温、海冰、海面风场等预报产品,实现了全球海域范围内从百公里级到公里级空间分辨率的一体化预报业务全覆盖。全球业务化海洋学预报系统从全球尺度、大洋尺度到中国周边海域包括8个子系统:全球海面风场数值预报子系统、全球海洋环流数值预报子系统、全球海浪数值预报子系统、全球潮汐潮流数值预报子系统、印度洋海域海洋环境数值预报子系统、极地海冰数值预报子系统、中国周边海域精细化海洋环境数值预报子系统、全球海洋环境预报业务化集成支撑子系统。该系统紧密结合我国经济社会发展和军事保障需求,在“雪龙号”极地遇险脱困预报保障、马航MH370失联飞机搜救预报保障、“蛟龙号”多次深潜海试预报保障、日本福岛“3.11”地震海啸核泄漏影响评估等重大事件的预报保障任务中发挥了至关重要的作用,为我国实施海洋强国战略,维护国家海洋权益、保障涉海安全生产、应对海上突发事件等提供有力的科技支撑。

关键词: 业务化海洋学, 全球海洋预报, 业务化应用, 三级嵌套, 资料同化

Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS) is configured in three levels of nested grids from global ocean, open ocean to offshore. This global operational oceanography forecasting system architecture is firstly bulit in China by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). It has been put into operational forecasting at NMEFC, providing real-time forecasting of multi-scale ocean current, temperature, salinity, wave, sea surface wind, etc. All the ocean forecasting products are released in many ways and made available through the online, realizing full-range coverage in resolution from hundreds kilometer to several kilometer. The CGOFS includes 8 subsystems: global sea-surface wind numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean wave numerical forecasting subsystem, global tide and tidal current forecasting subsystem, Indian Ocean marine environment numerical forecasting subsystem, polar sea ice numerical forecasting subsystem, refined marine environment numerical forecasting for China’s surrounding waters,and integration management subsystem for operational support service of the CGOFS. Operational applications of the CGOFS are closely connected with China’s economic-social development and military security needs. For example, the CGOFS palys a crucial role in environmental forecasting for Chinese research vessel and icebreaker Xuelong, MH370 Searching, submersible “Jiaolong” exploration and nuclear contaminant transport from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, providing important scientific support for developing an ocean power, protecting national maritime rights, ensuring marine safety and coping with ocean problems in emergency.

Key words: Operational oceanography, Global ocean forecasting, Operational application, Three-level nested-grid model, Data assimilation.

中图分类号: 

表1
Table 1 The global and regional operational oceanography forecasting system
系统名称 海洋模式 模式区域 水平分辨率 垂直层数 同化方案 预报时效 大气强迫
美国海军
GOFSv3.0		 HYCOM 全球 1/12° 32层 NCODA-3DVAR 7 d 海军全球环境模式
NAVGEM
美国NCEP
RTOFS		 HYCOM 全球 1/12° 32层 NCODA-3 DVAR 8 d NCEP GFS 3-hourly,
HWRF (Hurricane WRF)
北大西洋 1/12°,美国近岸
4~6 km		 26层 2DVAR(horizontal)
1 DVAR (Vertical)		 6 d
法国
(Mecator-Ocean)		 NEMO 全球 1/12° 50层 SAM2-3DVar,基于SEEK方
程的降阶卡尔曼滤波对温
度和盐度作误差订正		 14 d ECMWF 3 hourly
分析场和预报场
北大西洋+
地中海		 20°S~80°N 50层 7 d
欧洲
ECMWF		 NEMO3.0 全球 1°,赤道加密 42层 NEMOVAR (3DVar-FGAT) 51成员集合预报,18 d (每天),
32 d (每周), 7 mon (每月)		 ECMWF
业务数值预报场
英国
FOAMv12		 NEMO 全球 1/4° 75层 NEMOVAR (3DVar-FGAT) 7 d Met Office 3-hourly
数值天气预报
北大西洋、印度洋、
地中海		 1/12° 50层
澳大利亚
Bluelink OFAM3		 MOM4 准全球
75°S~75°N		 1/10° 51层 BODASv8.3 7 d ACCESS-G, APS1
ERA-Interim
日本
MOVE/MRI.COM		 MRI.COM v3.4 全球 1° 54层 3DVAR 30 d(西北太平洋) JRA55-JCDAS 6 hourly
北太平洋 1/2° 54层
西北太平洋 1/10° 26层 4DVAR
加拿大
CONCEPTS		 NEMO3.1 全球 1/4° 50层 海洋 SAM2
海冰 3DVAR-FGAT		 10 d GEM (Canadian Meteorological
Centre) hourly
北极、北大西洋 1/12°
印度
INDOFOS		 MOM4
ROMS		 全球 0.5°×(0.33°~1°) 40 z层 3DVAR 5 d GFS 6 hourly
印度洋 1/8° 40 σ层 OI NCMRWF 6 hourly
巴西
REMO		 HYCOM 大西洋 1/4° 21层 集合OI 6 d NCEP GFS 0.5° 3 hourly
CHM -COSMO 0.1° 3 hourly
南大西洋 1/12° 5 d
西南大西洋 1/24° 4 d
图1 全球业务化海洋学预报系统区域子系统海区覆盖图
红色实线为印度洋海洋环流数值预报子系统,红色点线为印度洋海浪数值预报子系统,黑色实线为西北太平洋海洋环流数值预报子系统,黑色点线为西北太平洋海浪数值预报子系统,绿色实线为中国近海海浪数值预报子系统,青色实线为南海海洋环流数值预报子系统,品红实线为渤、黄、东海海洋环流数值预报子系统
Fig.1 Spatial domains for the regional forecasting systems of Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System
The red solid lines indicate Indian Ocean circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, red dotted lines indicate Indian Ocean wave numerical forecasting subsystem, black solid lines indicate Northwest Pacific Ocean circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, black dotted lines indicate Northwest wave numerical forecasting subsystem, green solid lines indicate China offshore wave numerical forecasting subsystem, cyan solid lines indicate South China Sea circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, magenta solid lines indicate Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea circulation numerical forecasting subsystem
表2
Table 2 Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System(CGOFS)
CGOFS
三级结构		 CGOFS
子系统名称		 数值
模式		 模式区域 模式地形 水平
分辨率		 垂直层数 大气
强迫		 同化
方案		 同化
资料		 预报
时效
/h		 预报要素
全球尺度 全球海面风场
数值预报子系统		 GSM 全球 USGS
DEM		 T382 sigma混合
坐标/64层		 NMEFC & GFS
6-hourly		 GSI
3DVAR		 常规观测
卫星辐射		 120 海面风场
海面温度
全球海洋环流
数值预报子系统		 MOM4 全球 OCCAM 0.2 1/4° Z坐标
50层		 NMEFC & GFS
6-hourly		 3DVAR SST SLA
Argo廓线		 120 温度 盐度
海流
全球海浪
数值预报子系统		 NWW3 全球 TerrainBase
1/12°		 1/3° NMEFC & GFS
6-hourly		 OI HY-2 120 有效波高
平均波向
全球潮汐潮流
数值预报子系统		 FVCOM 全球 DBDB5 1/6°
~0.9°		 sigma混合
坐标/40层		 NMEFC & GFS
6-hourly		 Nudging Jason2 120 水位
流场
大洋尺度 印度洋海洋环流
数值预报子系统		 ROMS 39°~125°E
5°S~27°N		 GEBCO_08
0.5'		 1/12° 20层 NMEFC
6-hourly		 EnOI SST
SLA		 120 温度 盐度
海流
印度洋海浪
数值预报子系统		 NWW3 30°~122°E
15°S~27°N		 TerrainBase
1/12 °		 1/6° NMEFC
6-hourly		 OI HY-2 120 有效波高
平均波向
极地海冰
数值预报子系统		 MITgcm 北极区域
开边界在大西洋和太平洋55°N附近		 ETOPO2 18 km 50层 GFS
6-hourly		 Nudging SSMIS
AMSR2		 120 海冰密集度
中国
周边海域		 中国近海海洋环流
数值预报子系统		 ROMS 渤、黄、东海
22°~41°N, 114°~133°E
南海4.5°S~28.4°N ,99°~145°E		 GEBCO_08 0.5' 1/30° 渤黄东海
30层
南海36层		 NMEFC
6-hourly		 EnOI SST SLA
Argo
廓线		 120 温度 盐度
海流
中国近海海浪
数值预报子系统		 SWAN 5°~45°N
105°~130°E		 ETOPO2 1/30° NMEFC
6-hourly		 120 有效波高
平均波向
西北太平洋海洋环
流数值预报子系统		 ROMS 3°~52°N
99°~158°E		 GEBCO_08
0.5'		 1/20° 22层 NMEFC & GFS
6-hourly		 EnOI SST
SLA		 120 温度 盐度
海流
西北太平洋海浪
数值预报子系统		 SWAN 5°~45°N
105°~155°E		 ETOPO2 1/10° NMEFC
6-hourly		 120 有效波高
平均波向
图2 全球业务化海洋学预报系统框架流程图
Fig.2 The flow chart of Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System
图3 全球海洋流场流线可视化效果对比 [ 82 ]
Fig.3 Comparison of global marine fluid flow streamline visualization [ 82 ]
图4 极地大气数值预报系统对“雪龙”号所在位置风向风速的预报示意图 [ 83 ]
Fig.4 Wind tendency to the location of the R/V Xuelong from PWNFS [ 83 ]
图5 铯-137表层浓度的模式预测 [ 86 ]
(a)第二年,(b)第8年
Fig.5 Model predictions of Cs-137 surface concentration [ 86 ]
(a) 2 nd year; (b) 8 th year
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