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地球科学进展  2018, Vol. 33 Issue (2): 131-140    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.02.0131
综述与评述     
全球业务化海洋预报进展与展望
刘娜(), 王辉, 凌铁军, 祖子清
国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京 100081
Review and Prospect of Global Operational Ocean Forecasting
Na Liu(), Hui Wang, Tiejun Ling, Ziqing Zu
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
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摘要:

海洋环境预报在经济发展和基础设施建设等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用,涉及到海上安全、海洋能源开发与保护、远洋运输和海洋渔业等许多领域和方面。近年来,各国的全球海洋预报取得了显著的进展。全球海洋数据同化实验(GODAE)OceanView计划为各国提供协调和技术支持,发展并建立全球业务化海洋预报系统,将全球海洋预报的概念实现业务化运行。全球业务化海洋预报系统以海洋动力数值模式作为动力框架,将近实时高质量的观测输入场通过资料同化融入到模式中,实现对全球范围多时空尺度的海洋状况提供未来演替的预测,并对产品表现不间断地进行监测以保证预报服务的质量。简要介绍和回顾GODAE OceanView所涵盖的全球海洋预报系统的发展历程和现状,并对全球海洋预报未来发展的难点与问题给予展望。

关键词: 全球海洋预报业务化海洋学海洋数据同化GODAE OceanView    
Abstract:

The marine environmental forecast plays an increasingly important role in economic growth and infrastructure development, and touches upon many fields and aspects, including marine security, energy resources development and protection, ocean shipping and fisheries. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView supports the national research groups providing them with coordination and technical support among the partners. Forecasting centers develop and establish global operational ocean forecast systems. The global operational ocean forecasting system uses the ocean dynamic numerical model as the dynamic framework, and the near real-time high-quality observation input field is integrated into the model by data assimilation to realize the future environmental forecasts of the marine conditions covering the multi-time scale. The products are routinely validated with observations in order to assess their quality. This paper briefly introduced and reviewed the development process and current situation of the global ocean forecasting system covered by GODAE OceanView, and outlined the future development of global ocean forecasting.

Key words: Global ocean forecasting    Operational oceanography    Data assimilation    GODAE OceanView.
收稿日期: 2017-08-31 出版日期: 2018-04-02
ZTFLH:  P731.3  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目“两类ENSO对太平洋北赤道流分叉年际变化的影响”(编号: 41406013)和“中国周边海域SST日变化及其对区域气候的影响”(编号:41376016)资助
作者简介:

作者简介:刘娜(1982-),女,山东青岛人,副研究员,主要从事海洋环流动力学、海洋预报理论与方法等研究.E-mail:liuna@nmefc.cn

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引用本文:

刘娜, 王辉, 凌铁军, 祖子清. 全球业务化海洋预报进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(2): 131-140.

Na Liu, Hui Wang, Tiejun Ling, Ziqing Zu. Review and Prospect of Global Operational Ocean Forecasting. Advances in Earth Science, 2018, 33(2): 131-140.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.02.0131        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I2/131

图1  各国全球业务化海洋预报系统发展历程
系统名称 国家 海洋模式 水平分辨率 垂向层数/层 数据同化方案 海冰模式 大气强迫 预报时效/天
RTOFS 美国 HYCOM 1/12° 32 NCODA
(3DVAR)
Energy Loan NCEP GFS 3 h
HWRF
8
GOFS 美国 HYCOM 1/12° 32 NCODA
(3DVAR)
海军全球环境模式
NAVGEM
7
PSY4 法国 NEMO 3.1 1/12° 50 SAM2V1-3DVAR
大尺度温度、盐度误差订正
LIM2_EVP ECMWF 3 h分析
场和预报场
14
FOAM 英国 NEMO 3.2 1/4° 75 NEMOVAR
(3DVAR)
CICE Met Office 3 h数值
天气预报
7
ECMWF 欧洲 NEMO 3.0 42 NEMOVAR
(3DVAR-FGAT)
ECMWF业务
数值预报场
18
MOVE/MRI.
COM-G
日本 MRI.COM
v3.4
0.3°~1° 50 MOVE(3DVAR) 气候态月
平均
JRA55-JCDAS 6 h 30
Ocean-MAPS 澳大利亚 MOM4 1/10°~1° 51 BODAS
(ensenble OI)
ACCESS-GAPS1
ERA-Interim
7
CGOFS 中国 MOM4 1/4° 50 3DVAR NCEP GFS 6 h 7
CONCEPTS 加拿大 NEMO 3.1 1/4° 50 SAM2-ice 3DVAR CICE GEM 逐小时 10
INDOFOS 印度 MOM4 1/2°×(1/3°~1°) 40 3DVAR NCEP GFS 6 h 5
表1  国内外全球业务化海洋预报系统
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