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地球科学进展  2014, Vol. 29 Issue (5): 632-639    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0632
研究简报     
民勤县经济发展与生态环境的定量关系研究
张惠1, 张志强3
1. 兰州文理学院,甘肃 兰州 730000; 2. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070; 3.中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心,甘肃 兰州 730000
Studies on the Quantitative Relation Between Economic Development and Ecological Environment of Minqin County
Zhang Hui1, 2, Zhang Zhiqiang3
1. Lanzhou University of Arts and Science, Lanzhou 730000,China; 2 Geography and Environment College of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070,China.; 3.Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, Lanzhou 730000,China
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摘要:

环境压力和经济增长之间的关系问题是一个长期争论的话题。环境保护与经济发展是对立而又统一的2个方面,环境为人类的生存和发展提供了物质基础,而人类活动和经济发展又给生态和环境带来了污染与破坏。对于经济发展相对缓慢、生态环境较为脆弱、环境压力与经济增长之间矛盾更为突出的石羊河流域,此问题更加严峻。选择生态足迹作为表征环境压力的指标,计算了1978—2012年生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字情况,利用STIRPAT模型拟合人均生态足迹和经济发展之间的关系,用岭回归和偏最小二乘回归(PLS)分别计算经济发展与生态环境之间的耦合协调关系。结果表明:①1978—2012年民勤县生态足迹与人均生态足迹均呈上升趋势,生态赤字逐渐严重,35年间增加了719.62%;②影响生态环境变化的因素中人均GDP的变化对其影响较大,城镇化率次之,人口数和放牧量增加影响较小,第一产业产值比重的增加对生态环境恶化具有减缓作用;③耦合度在0.2759~0.4987之间,协调度在0.1263~0.3090之间,经济增长为粗放型,对生态环境的变化具有负作用。

关键词: 耦合协调环境压力STIRPAT模型内陆河流域    
Abstract:

Relationship between environmental pressure and economic growth is a long debated topic. Environmental protection and economic development are two aspects of the unity of opposites. Environment offers material basis for survival and development of human, but human activities and economic development has brought pollution and damage to the ecology and environment. This problem is more severe in Shiyang River Basin which has slow economy relatively, eco-environment is instable, and contradictions are more prominent between environmental pressures and economic growth. This paper choosed the ecological footprint as indicators of environmental pressure, and calculated the Ecological Footprint (EF), Ecological Capacity (EC) and Ecological Deficit (ED) from 1978 to 2012 of Minqin County. Then, we used STIRPAT model to simulate the impact of per capita ecological footprint on economic development. And we use ridge regression and PLS regression to find out the coupling and coordinative characteristics between economic growth and environment. The results show that: ①Ecological footprint and per capita ecological footprint of Minqin County increased from 1978 to 2012, and ecological deficit becomes serious gradually that it has increased 719.62% in the past 31 years; ② The changes of per capita GDP and per capita GDP squared have influence on environment, and followed by urbanization level. The changes of population and grassland utilization intensity have little impact on environment. The increase of proportion of primary industry can mitigate environment change; ③ The degree range of coupling and coordinative is 0.2759~0.4987 and 0.1263~0.3090. The economic development is extensive growth. And it has a negative effect on environment change.

Key words: Environment stress    Coupling and coordinate    Inland river basin.    STIRPAT model
出版日期: 2014-05-10
:  F062.2  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“西北内陆河流域生态补偿机制研究——以石羊河流域为例”(编号:41171116)资助

作者简介: 张惠(1983-),女,甘肃兰州人,博士研究生,主要从事生态经济学与可持续发展研究. E-mail:zhang_h1009@163.com
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引用本文:

张惠, 张志强. 民勤县经济发展与生态环境的定量关系研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(5): 632-639.

Zhang Hui,,Zhang Zhiqiang. Studies on the Quantitative Relation Between Economic Development and Ecological Environment of Minqin County. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(5): 632-639.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0632        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2014/V29/I5/632

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