地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.006

   

世界铜资源产业链供应链贸易网络韧性演化研究
郑明贵,张林兴,董娟   
  1. (江西理工大学 矿业发展研究中心,江西 赣州 341000)
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(编号:22XGL003);江西省社会科学基金项目(编号:25YJ35);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(编号:JD25028)资助.

Research on Resilience Evolution of the World Copper Resources Industry Chain, Supply Chain and Trade Network

Zheng Minggui, Zhang Linxing, Dong Juan   

  1. (Research Center of Mining Development, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China)
  • About author:Zheng Minggui, research areas include resource economy and management. E-mail: mgz268@sina.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 22XGL003); Jiangxi Provincial Social Science Foundation Project (Grant No. 25YJ35); Key Research Base Project of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities of Jiangxi Province (Grant No. JD25028).
在世界大国资源竞争与资源国政策调整背景下,铜资源产业链供应链面临巨大的不确定性风险,研究铜资源产业链供应链贸易网络韧性对保障其安全意义重大。综合考虑铜资源产业链供应链全环节产品,通过描述网络节点和结构的各项能力及特征,刻画铜资源产业链供应链网络韧性演化特征。研究表明:节点韧性层面,中国上游和中游优势显著,但下游呈下降趋势,资源禀赋国仅上游和中游韧性较高,德国和美国等工业强国全环节韧性突出;静态结构韧性层面,全环节 皆呈现降低趋势,恢复能力皆表现不佳,上游和下游抵抗能力较强;动态结构韧性层面,上游和下游网络极化效应有所削弱,其稳定能力有待提升,中游贸易日渐集中于重要连边,导致抵抗攻击能力下降,贸易枢纽国家主导潜在新联系的建立且具备更强的重构能力。
Abstract: Under the backdrop of resource competition among world powers and policy adjustments in resource-rich countries, the strategic attributes and significance of copper resources have become increasingly prominent. The competition among major powers over resources has intensified, and the copper resource industry chain and supply chain are facing significant uncertainties and risks. Studying the resilience of the copper resource industry chain and supply chain trade network is of great significance for ensuring the security of copper resources and the stability of the global copper resource industry chain and supply chain. By comprehensively considering all products in the entire copper resource industry chain and supply chain, including upstream mining, midstream smelting, and downstream processing, an analysis framework for the resilience of the international trade network is constructed. Through describing the capabilities and characteristics of network nodes and structures, the evolution characteristics of the resilience of the copper resource industry chain and supply chain network are depicted from both dynamic and static dimensions. The research shows that at the node resilience level, China has a significant advantage in the upstream and midstream, but the downstream is showing a downward trend. Resource-endowed countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile have high resilience in the upstream and midstream due to their resource advantages, but their performance in the downstream is not outstanding. Industrial powers such as Germany and the United States have seen a decline in their upstream resilience, but their overall resilience across the entire chain is relatively prominent, and they still hold important positions in the upstream, midstream, and downstream. At the static structural resilience level, resilience in all links is showing a downward trend, and recovery capabilities are all inadequate, with stronger resistance capabilities in the upstream and downstream. At the dynamic structural resilience level, the polarization effect of the upstream and downstream networks has weakened, and their stability capabilities need to be improved. Midstream trade is increasingly concentrated on important links, leading to a decline in resistance to attacks. In the entire chain, the motivation for re-establishing trade links stems primarily from a country's existing status as a trade hub. Trade hub countries dominate the establishment of potential new links and have stronger reconstruction capabilities.

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