国际能源消费特征比较分析及中国发展建议

随着低碳经济的兴起和国际能源形势的恶化,世界各国对能源问题愈加重视.以世界整体及能源消费量较大的几个国家为对照分析样本,以长序列统计值为基础分析数据,从世界和历史2个维度对比分析各国的能源消费特征,包括能源消费总量,消费结构和能源效率等,总结发达国家能源消费特点,分析中国能源消费历程及目前所处阶段,总结中国能源消费存在的主要问题.最后,提出中国能源可持续发展的建议,包括积极推进科技进步,优化能源结构,提高能源效率,发展低碳经济,理顺能源价格,提高清洁能源消费比例,以及注重与环境保护的协同效应等.

关键词: 能源消费, 能源结构, 能耗强度, 能源效率

With the rise of low carbon economy and the deterioration of the international energy situation, most countries in the world pay more attention to energy issues. In this paper, based on a comparison with several countries of large energy consumption, we used long sequence statistics to analyze the energy consumption characteristics from the world and the history, including energy consumption, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency, and then summed up the characteristics of energy consumption in developed countries, analyzed China's energy consumption process and the current stage, and found out the main problems of energy consumption in China. At last, countermeasures for the healthy development of China's energy were proposed, including actively promoting scientific and technological progress, upgrading energy structure, developing low carbon economy, rationalizing energy prices, improving the proportion of clean energy consumption and emphasizing synergistic effect on environment protection.

Key words: Energy consumption, Energy consumption structure, Energy consumption intensity, Energy efficiency.

中图分类号:

P963

图1 世界及各主要区域能源消费情况
数据来源于参考文献[1]

Fig.1 Energy consumption in the world and the major regions
The data derived from reference [1]

图2 各主要国家能源消费情况
数据来源于参考文献 ^{[

1
]}

Fig.2 Energy consumption in the major countries
The data derived from reference ^{[

1
]}

图3 各国人均能源消费情况
人口数量来自世界银行WDI数据库

Fig.3 Per capita energy consumption in the major countries
The population from the world bank WDI database

图4 各国2014年一次能源消费结构
数据来源于参考文献 ^{[

1
]}

Fig.4 Primary energy consumption structure in 2014 in the major countries
The data derived from reference ^{[

1
]}

图5 中国能源消费结构趋势
数据来源于参考文献 ^{[

1
]}

Fig.5 The trend of energy consumption structure in China
The data derived from reference ^{[

1
]}

图6 主要国家能耗强度发展趋势图
GDP以2005年不变价美元计,原始数据来自世界银行WDI数据库;能源数据来自参考文献 ^{[

1
]}

Fig.6 The Energy consumption intensity in the major countries
GDP were in constant 2005 dollars, the initial data from the world bank WDI database; The energy data derived from reference ^{[

1
]}

图7 主要国家能耗强度对比
数据来源于世界银行WDI数据库和IMF

Fig.7 The comparisons of the energy consumption intensity in the major countries
The population from the world bank WDI database and IMF

表1 物理能源效率比较(单位:%)

Tab.1 The comparison of physical energy efficiency in major countries(unit:%)

		1989	2000	2005	2008	2010	2011	ECE地区90年代初预计^{[ 16 ]}
开采效率η₁		31.1	33.0	33.3	35.0	35.9	35.9	59~70
中间环节效率η₂		72.4	68.5	70.8	69.9	70.6	70.7	67~75
终端利用效率	农业	28.0	32.0	33.0	33.0	34.0	35.0	33~36
	工业	40.5	46.0	47.3	49.3	50.5	51.2	65
	交通运输	25.4	28.9	29.2	28.8	29.1	29.2	25~30
	民用和商业	42.5	66.0	68.4	71.2	71.4	72.4	0~65
	合计η₃	38.7	46.7	48.3	50.0	50.6	51.1	51~55
能源效率 (η₂×η₃)		28.0	32.0	34.2	35.0	35.7	36.1	34~41
能源系统总效率 (η₁×η₂×η₃)		8.7	10.6	11.4	12.3	12.8	13.0	20~30

表1 物理能源效率比较(单位:%)

Tab.1 The comparison of physical energy efficiency in major countries(unit:%)

		1989	2000	2005	2008	2010	2011	ECE地区90年代初预计^{[ 16 ]}
开采效率η₁		31.1	33.0	33.3	35.0	35.9	35.9	59~70
中间环节效率η₂		72.4	68.5	70.8	69.9	70.6	70.7	67~75
终端利用效率	农业	28.0	32.0	33.0	33.0	34.0	35.0	33~36
	工业	40.5	46.0	47.3	49.3	50.5	51.2	65
	交通运输	25.4	28.9	29.2	28.8	29.1	29.2	25~30
	民用和商业	42.5	66.0	68.4	71.2	71.4	72.4	0~65
	合计η₃	38.7	46.7	48.3	50.0	50.6	51.1	51~55
能源效率 (η₂×η₃)		28.0	32.0	34.2	35.0	35.7	36.1	34~41
能源系统总效率 (η₁×η₂×η₃)		8.7	10.6	11.4	12.3	12.8	13.0	20~30

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摘要

Comparative Analysis of International Energy Consumption Characteristics and China's Countermeasures