环状模概念

“环状模”（Annular Mode）是大气遥相关领域一个新兴的气候学概念,目前已被广泛接受并应用。它表征热带外地区中纬度和高纬度间大气质量的“跷跷板”现象,为热带外地区最主要的大气变率,影响包括我国在内的中高纬度地区、甚至部分热带地区的近地层气候。它对整个北半球气候的影响之大,从根本上改变了气候学家对北极气候模型的理解,也被称为“北极厄尔尼诺”。可见,“环状模”概念的提出具有重要的科学意义。

然而，“环状模”这一气候学概念的提出和推广过程并不平顺。多派学者曾围绕这一新兴概念，展开过近年来气候学领域内少有、激烈和精彩的辩论。而这场辩论是“环状模”概念提出和发展过程中的重要一环，它最终促使更多的学者了解并接受了“环状模”这一新兴的气候学概念。这场辩论的焦点主要围绕“‘环状模’是否真实存在”、“‘环状模’信号是否源自于平流层” 和“‘北半球环状模’与‘北大西洋涛动’究竟谁更适合于代表北半球热带外行星尺度扰动最主要的模态”等3个问题。辩论的具体过程，不仅展示了相关的学者们高超的研究水平和技巧，还折射出他们对真理不懈追求的科学精神；而辩论的最终结果，不但增强了人们对“环状模”概念的理解，还催生了人们对大气环流基本活动规律认识的突破。厘清这场辩论的主要思路和观点，不仅可以增强我们对“环状模”概念以及基本大气环流过程的理解，而且对分析和解决其他类似的科学问题同样具有重要的启示性作用。因此，力图通过综述的方式，围绕“环状模”概念的由来和争论，与读者一起回顾 “环状模”这一重要气候学概念的提出和推广过程。

关键词: 大气科学, 大气遥相关, 环状模, 北大西洋涛动, 争论

Annular Mode is a newly-developed concept in atmospheric teleconnection, which is accepted and implemented widely by the climate community. Annular Mode is a “mass seesaw” between the middle and high latitudes, representing the primary atmospheric variability in extra-tropics, impacting the climate of near surface on both the tropics and the extra-tropics, including the East Asia and China. It is also called as the “The North’s ‘El Niño’”. Therefore, the Annular Mode is a very important concept in atmospheric science.

However, the introduction of the Annular Mode has elicited different reactions in different parts of the community. The arguments among them are not only exiting but also splendid, which are rarely happened in previous modern climate researches. These arguments or debates make the concept of Annular Mode well-known, which is an important step in popularizing the concept of Annular Mode. Three questions become the core topics of these debates, including “whether the Annular Mode is real or not?”, “Whether the signals of Annular Mode originate in stratospheric or not?”, “Whether the NAM paradigm or NAO paradigm is a better representation of the preferred mode of planetary-scale fluctuations in extra-tropics of Northern Hemisphere?” The processes of the debates on the Annular Mode are not only a resemblance of high levels and skills of research of relevant scientists, but also a resemblance of their spirits of seeking the truth. Review and clarification of the primary ideas and points of these debates are important, which would not only augment the existing knowledge for better understanding the general circulation, but also gave us some important enlightenment in the handling of similar questions. Thus, this review summarizes the introduction to the processes of Annular Mode, paying specially attention to the primary ideas and points about the debates on the Annular Modes.

Key words: Atmospheric Science, Teleconnection, Annular Mode, NAO, Debate

中图分类号:

图1 通过EOF分解热带外SLP场得到的(a)北半球环状模和(b)南半球环状模空间形态示意图 ^{[

1
,

2
]}

Figure 1 The schematic diagrams of (a) NAM and (b) SAM represented by the leading EOF mode of extra-topical SLP ^{[

1
,

2
]}

图2 A点SLP与全球SLP场的总相关（a）及偏相关（b） ^{[

40
]} 图（a）偏相关场为去除SLP的PC2之后的残余SLP场与A点 SLP的相关场。等值线间隔为0.2,虚线代表负值

Fig.2 The correlation (a) and partial (b) correlation map between the SLP in point A and global SLP ^{[

40
]} The partical correlation map in （a） panel is the crrelation after the removal of signals of PC2. Contours interval is 0.2, dash line denote the negative correlation

图3 北半球中高纬大气环状活动带示意图 ^{[

34
]}

Fig.3 The schemetic diagram of the Annular Belts of Action in middle and high latitudes ^{[

34
]}

图4 北半球冬季平均SLP异常场与环状模指数的相关图 (a) NAMI^{[

14
]}和 (b) AO/NAM 指数^{[

1
]};等值线间隔为0.1,红（蓝）阴影指示通过99.9%置信度检验

Figure 4. The correlation maps between the winter mean SLP anomalies and NAM indexes (a) is NAMI^{[

14
]} and (b) is AO/NAM index ^{[

1
]};The contour interval is 0.1, areas with significant trends at the 0.01 level are shaded in color (red/blue)

图5 环状模正位相时概念示意图 (a)为AO/NAM ^{[

14
]},(b)为AAO/SAM^{[

48
]}

Fig. 5 The schemetic diagrams of the postive phases ( a) AO/NAM ^{[

14
]}and AAO/SAM^{[

48
]}

图6 1998—1999年北半球环状模逐日指数高度-时间剖面图 ^{[

74
]} 蓝色表示正值（强极涡）,红色表示负值（极涡偏弱）。等值线间隔0.5,绝对值小于0.5以下的等值线没有画出;水平细实线表示平流层与对流层之间的大致位置

Figure 6. TheTime-height development of the northern annular mode during the winter of 1998—1999 Blue corresponds to positive values (strong polar vortex), and red corresponds to negative values (weak polar vortex). The contour interval is 0.5, with values between 20.5 and 0.5 unshaded. The thin horizontal line indicates the approximate boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere

表1 各种NAO指数及环状模指数之间的交叉相关系数矩阵 ^{[

25
]}

Table 1 Matrix of correlations between various indexes of the NAO ^{[

25
]}

	WB	P-I	N-G	PC1	U55	p45
WB	-	0.97	0.98	0.99	0.94	0.97
P-I		-	0.92	0.97	0.94	0.94
N-G			-	0.98	0.92	0.96
PC1				-	0.95	0.97
U55					-	0.98
p45						-

表1 各种NAO指数及环状模指数之间的交叉相关系数矩阵 ^{[

25
]}

Table 1 Matrix of correlations between various indexes of the NAO ^{[

25
]}

	WB	P-I	N-G	PC1	U55	p45
WB	-	0.97	0.98	0.99	0.94	0.97
P-I		-	0.92	0.97	0.94	0.94
N-G			-	0.98	0.92	0.96
PC1				-	0.95	0.97
U55					-	0.98
p45						-

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