关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.07.0713

地球科学进展 ›› 2006, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (7): 713 -720. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.07.0713

胡永云

北京大学物理学院大气科学系暴雨与旱涝灾害实验室, 北京 100871

收稿日期:2006-01-26 修回日期:2006-05-25 出版日期:2006-07-15
通讯作者: 胡永云 E-mail:yyhu@pku.edu.cn.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目“北极平流层异常对亚洲及北太平洋地区的天气气候影响研究”（编号：40533016）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“使用全球气候模式研究冬季早期和晚期相反气候趋向”（编号：40575031）；教育部科学技术研究重点项目“冬季早期和晚期相反气候趋向的研究”（编号：106002）资助.

On the Influence of Stratospheric Anomalies on Tropospheric Weather Systems

Hu Yongyun

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University Laboratory of Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Peking University, Beijing 100871,China

Received:2006-01-26 Revised:2006-05-25 Online:2006-07-15 Published:2006-07-15

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人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响，但是，最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地，近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响，也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气，而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常，一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标，并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点，并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。

关键词: 北极涛动, 行星波, 天气预报, 波—流相互作用, 天气系统, 平流层—对流层相互作用

It was traditionally thought that the stratosphere has little influence on the troposphere. However, recent observational studies show that such a downward influence is significant and important. Especially, recent studies on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) greatly advanced the research in this problem. It is found that stratospheric anomalies can have important influences on tropospheric weather systems, that is, in winter negative AO anomalies in the stratosphere can trigger extremely cold weather events in the midlatitude troposphere, whereas positive stratospheric AO anomalies can lead to warm weather. It is even suggested that signals of stratospheric anomalies can be used to predict tropospheric weather in Northern-Hemisphere winter time, which can expand the time scale of weather prediction up to 3 weeks. The present paper reviews the progress in this research area, explains the physical mechanisms of stratospheric influences on tropospheric weather systems, summarizes controversial points of views, and suggests some problems for future research.

Key words: Planetary waves, Synoptic-scale systems, Weather prediction, Arctic Oscillation., Stratosphere-troposphere interaction, Wave-mean flow interaction

中图分类号:

P467

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