ADEARTH

Advances in Earth Science >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 10: 987 - 1002

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.076

Review and Prospects of International Integrated Risk Governance Research

  • Peijun SHI ,
  • Qian YE ,
  • Carlo JAEGER
Expand
  • 1.National Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Disaster Risk Prevention, Beijing 100875, China
    2.Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Guangdong 519087, China
    3.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    4.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    5.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education (Beijing Normal University), Beijing 100875, China
    6.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam D-14473, Germany
SHI Peijun, research areas include environmental change and natural disaster studies. E-mail: spj@bnu.edu.cn

Received date: 2025-08-01

  Revised date: 2025-09-26

  Online published: 2025-09-21

Supported by

the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42330502)

Fold

Abstract

This paper reviews the 15-year development process of the Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP) under IHDP/Future Earth, summarizes its major research achievements, and provides prospects for future research directions in this field. The first five years of IRGP (2010-2014) were carried out under the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), focusing on global integrated risk governance research. Six main research themes were included: social-ecologic system, model and modeling, entry mechanism, early warning system, case comparison, risk governance paradigms. Over the past ten years, IRGP has continued under the framework of the Future Earth (FE), jointly initiated and led by the International Science Council (ISC, formed through the merger of ICSU and ISSC) and United Nations system organizations such as UNESCO, UNEP, and UNU. Its main research directions have included: natural disaster and advanced technology risks, climate change risks in coastal regions, risks from urbanization and agriculture, financial and global systemic risks, as well as green growth and integrated risk management. Major achievements of IRGP include: the paradigm of comprehensive disaster reduction and risk defense—the consilience model, compilation of the Atlas of Natural Disasters in China, compilation of the World Atlas of Natural Disasters, comprehensive rapid assessment studies of global compound chain disasters and mega-disaster risks, construction of the global environmental risk governance paradigm, and systematic analyses of Earth environmental risk prevention and control. Comparing IRGP’s 15-year research progress with the trends of international political, economic, social, environmental, and technological development, future integrated risk governance research should address systemic risks of the Earth and the world, focusing on the trinity of tackling global climate change, reducing disaster risks, and achieving sustainable development. It is advisable to promptly establish an international science programme for integrated disaster risk prevention based on the successful experience and existing work of IRGP, as it is highly essential for ensuring the security and sustainable development of the community with a shared future for mankind.

Key words： Integrated risk governance research; Earth and world systematic risks; Comprehensive risk prevention and control; Future Earth; Future world

Cite this article

Peijun SHI , Qian YE , Carlo JAEGER . Review and Prospects of International Integrated Risk Governance Research[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2025 , 40(10) : 987 -1002 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.076

References

[1] SHI P J， YE T， WANG Y， et al. Disaster risk science： a geographical perspective and a research framework［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science， 2020， 11（4）： 426-440.
[2] BAI X M， SHI P J. China’s urbanization at a turning point—challenges and opportunities［J］. Science， 2025， 388（6 747）. DOI： 10.1126/science.adw3443 .
[3] SHI P J， LIU F G， MENG X M， et al. Recent Jishishan earthquake ripple hazard provides a new explanation for the destruction of the prehistoric Lajia Settlement 4000a B.P.［J］. Scientific Reports， 2024， 14. DOI： 10.1038/s41598-024-60433-8 .
[4] YANITES B J， CLARK M K， ROERING J J， et al. Cascading land surface hazards as a nexus in the Earth system［J］. Science， 2025， 388（6 754）. DOI： 10.1126/science.adp9559
[5] United Nations. Kobe declaration［R］. Geneva： World Conference on Disaster Reduction， 2005.
[6] United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction （UNISDR）. Hyogo framework for action 2005-2015： building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters［R］. Geneva： United Nations， 2005.
[7] United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction （UNDRR）. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction： resilience pays—financing and investing for our future［R］. Geneva： United Nations， 2025.
[8] United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction （UNDRR）. Midterm review of the sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030［R］. Geneva： United Nations， 2023.
[9] CUTTER S L， ASH K D， EMRICH C T. The geographies of community disaster resilience［J］. Global Environmental Change， 2014， 29： 65-77.
[10] AVEN T. Risk assessment and risk management： review of recent advances on their foundation［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2016， 253（1）： 1-13.
[11] GALL M， NGUYEN K H， CUTTER S L. Integrated research on disaster risk： is it really integrated［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction， 2015， 12： 255-267.
[12] PESCAROLI G， ALEXANDER D. Critical infrastructure， panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters［J］. Natural Hazards， 2016， 82（1）： 175-192.
[13] CLARK W C， van KERKHOFF L， LEBEL L， et al. Crafting usable knowledge for sustainable development［J］. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America， 2016， 113（17）： 4 570-4 578.
[14] SHI Peijun， JAEGER Carlo， YE Qian. Comprehensive risk prevention： the core scientific plan of IHDP comprehensive risk prevention and the research on comprehensive catastrophe risk prevention［M］. Beijing： Beijing Normal University Press， 2012.
  史培军， JAEGER Carlo， 叶谦. 综合风险防范——IHDP综合风险防范核心科学计划与综合巨灾风险防范研究［M］. 北京： 北京师范大学出版社， 2012.
[15] SHI P J， JAEGER C. IHDP/Future Earth-integrated risk governance project series［M］. Beijing： Beijing Normal University Press； Singapore： Springer Nature Singapore Pte. Ltd.， 2012.
[16] ZHOU Tianjun. Progresses of the implementation of future earth project in China［J］. Climate Change Research， 2016， 12（5）： 355-356.
  周天军. 未来地球科学计划及其在中国的组织实施［J］. 气候变化研究进展， 2016， 12（5）： 355-356.
[17] SHI Peijun， WANG Ming， HU Xiaobing， et al. Integrated risk governance consilience mode of social-ecological systems［J］. Acta Geographica Sinica， 2014， 6（69）： 863-876.
  史培军， 汪明， 胡小兵， 等. 社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式［J］. 地理学报， 2014， 6（69）： 863-876.
[18] SHI Peijun， HU Xiaobing， GUO Hao， et al. Theory and practice of cohesion in comprehensive disaster risk prevention［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2020.
  史培军， 胡小兵， 郭浩， 等. 综合灾害风险防范：凝聚力理论与实践［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2020.
[19] SHI P J. Disaster risk science ［M］. Beijing： Beijing Normal University Press； Singapore： Springer Nature Singapore Pte. Ltd.， 2017.
[20] SHI Peijun. Disaster risk science［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2016.
  史培军. 灾害风险科学［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2016.
[21] BAI X M， SHI P J， LIU Y S. Society： realizing China’s urban dream［J］. Nature， 2014， 509（7 499）： 158-160.
[22] BAI X M， CHEN J， SHI P J. Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China： positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas［J］. Environmental Science & Technology， 2012， 46（1）： 132-139.
[23] HE C Y， HUANG Q X， BAI X M， et al. A global analysis of the relationship between urbanization and fatalities in earthquake-prone areas［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science， 2021， 12（6）： 805-820.
[24] BAI X M， NAGENDRA H， SHI P J， et al. Cities： build networks and share plans to emerge stronger from COVID-19［J］. Nature， 2020， 584（7 822）： 517-520.
[25] WANG W P， YANG S N， STANLEY H E， et al. Local floods induce large-scale abrupt failures of road networks［J］. Nature Communications， 2019， 10（1）： 2114. DOI： 10.1038/s41467-019-10063-w .
[26] HU X B， SHI P J， WANG M， et al. Towards quantitatively understanding the complexity of social-ecological systems—from connection to consilience［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science， 2017， 8（4）： 343-356.
[27] WIEK A， GUSTON D， van der LEEUW S， et al. Nanotechnology in the city： sustainability challenges and anticipatory governance［J］. Journal of Urban Technology， 2013， 20（2）： 45-62.
[28] DEARING J A， BRAIMOH A K， REENBERG A， et al. Complex land systems： the need for long time perspectives to assess their future［J］. Ecology and Society， 2010， 15（4）： 21. DOI： 10.5751/ES-03645-150421 .
[29] HE Y， FANG J Y， XU W， et al. Substantial increase of compound droughts and heatwaves in wheat growing seasons worldwide［J］. International Journal of Climatology， 2022， 42（10）： 5 038-5 054.
[30] HE Y， HU X K， XU W， et al. Increased probability and severity of compound dry and hot growing seasons over world’s major croplands［J］. Science of the Total Environment， 2022， 824. DOI： 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153885 .
[31] HU Jinpeng， HE Yan， SHI Peijun. Research progress and prospects on the impacts of compound hot and dry events on wheat yield［J］. Climate Change Research， 2025， 21（5）： 625-640.
  胡金鹏， 何研， 史培军. 复合干热事件对小麦产量影响的研究进展与展望［J］. 气候变化研究进展， 2025， 21（5）： 625-640.
[32] HU J P， LI Y C， SHI P J. Impact of future climate trend and fluctuation on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain and adaptation strategies［J］. Scientific Reports， 2025， 15（1）： 21882. DOI： 10.1038/s41598-025-06370-6 .
[33] HAAS A. Ten prerequisites for a better understanding of the contemporary financial crisis［J］. Complexity Economics， 2013， 2（1）： 107-112.
[34] YAN W L， GALLOWAY W， SHAW R. Resilient and adaptive Tokyo： towards sustainable urbanization in perspective of food-energy-water nexus［M］. Singapore： Springer Nature Singapore Pte. Ltd.， 2024.
[35] SHI P J， WANG Y， XU W， et al. Atlas of global change risk of population and economic systems［M］. Singapore： Springer Nature Singapore Pte. Ltd.， 2022.
[36] CHEN Y Q， ZHANG G F， CHEN Z Y， et al. A warming climate may reduce health risks of hypoxia on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau［J］. Science Bulletin， 2022， 67（4）： 341-344.
[37] SHI P J， ZHANG Y， CHEN Y Q， et al. Factors contributing to the oxygen concentration over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its contribution rate calculation［J］. Science China： Earth Sciences， 2024， 67（2）： 497-509.
[38] SUN Y L， ZHANG G F， LIU W H， et al. Mitigation strategies for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic after reopening from the global perspective［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction， 2024， 100. DOI： 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104187 .
[39] SUN Y L， LIU W H， ZHANG G F， et al. The inverted U-Shaped relationship between socio-economic status and infections during the COVID-19 pandemic［J］. GeoHealth， 2024， 8（5）. DOI： 10.1029/2024GH001025 .
[40] WANG K C， DICKINSON R E. A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration： observation， modeling， climatology， and climatic variability［J］. Reviews of Geophysics， 2012， 50（2）. DOI： 10.1029/2011RG000373 .
[41] FANG J Y， NICHOLLS R J， BROWN S， et al. Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China［J］. Nature Communications， 2022， 13（1）. DOI： 10.1038/s41467-022-34525 .
[42] DONG W J， YUAN W P， LIU S G， et al. China-Russia gas deal for a cleaner China［J］. Nature Climate Change， 2014， 4（11）： 940-942.
[43] BRYAN B A， GAO L， YE Y Q， et al. China’s response to a national land-system sustainability emergency［J］. Nature， 2018， 559（7 713）： 193-204.
[44] WANG K C， DICKINSON R E. Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land［J］. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， 2013， 110（37）： 14 877-14 882.
[45] WEI T， YANG S L， MOORE J C， et al. Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation［J］. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， 2012， 109（32）： 12 911-12 915.
[46] YUAN W P， LIU S G， DONG W J， et al. Differentiating moss from higher plants is critical in studying the carbon cycle of the boreal biome［J］. Nature Communications， 2014， 5（1）. DOI： 10.1038/ncomms5270 .
[47] REN Q， HE C Y， HUANG Q X， et al. Impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats in global drylands［J］. Nature Sustainability， 2022， 5（10）： 869-878.
[48] LI Z Q， NIU F， FAN J W， et al. Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation［J］. Nature Geoscience， 2011， 4（12）： 888-894.
[49] GRINSTED A， MOORE J C， JEVREJEVA S. Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures［J］. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， 2013， 110（14）： 5 369-5 373.
[50] GRINSTED A， MOORE J C， JEVREJEVA S. Reply to Kennedy，et al.： Katrina storm records in tide gauges［J］. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， 2013， 110（29）. DOI： 10.1073/pnas.1306503110 .
[51] HINKEL J， JAEGER C， NICHOLLS R J， et al. Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management［J］. Nature Climate Change， 2015， 5（3）： 188-190.
[52] MOORE J C， GRINSTED A， ZWINGER T， et al. Semiempirical and process—based global sea level projections［J］. Reviews of Geophysics， 2013， 51（3）： 484-522.
[53] SHI P J. Natural disasters in China［M］. Berlin Heidelberg： Springer， 2016.
[54] GHEORGHE A V， MASERA M， KATINA P F. Infranomics： sustainability， engineering design and governance［M］. Cham： Springer International Publishing， 2014.
[55] SHI P J， KASPERSON R. World atlas of natural disaster risk［M］. Berlin Heidelberg： Springer， 2015.
[56] SHI P J， JAEGER C， YE Q. Integrated risk governance： science plan and case studies of large-scale disasters［M］. Berlin Heidelberg： Springer， 2012.
[57] SHI Peijun. Atlas of natural disaster risk in China （in both English and Chinese）［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  史培军. 中国自然灾害风险地图集（中英文对照版）［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[58] SHI Peijun， WANG Aihui， SUN Fubao， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： study on the risk formation mechanism and evaluation of global change population and economic system［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2022.
  史培军， 王爱慧， 孙福宝， 等. 综合风险防范——全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2022.
[59] SHI Peijun， SUN Jianqi， LI Ning， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： the relationship between global change and environmental risk and its adaptive paradigm［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2016.
  史培军， 孙建奇， 李宁， 等. 综合风险防范——全球变化与环境风险关系及其适应性范式［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2016.
[60] WANG Jing’ai， ZHANG Xingming， GUO Hao. Comprehensive risk prevention： drought risk assessment and map of major crops in the world［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2016.
  王静爱， 张兴明， 郭浩. 综合风险防范——世界主要农作物旱灾风险评价与图谱［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2016.
[61] YE Tao， SHI Peijun， WANG Jun， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： agricultural natural disaster insurance zoning and technology［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2016.
  叶涛， 史培军， 王俊， 等. 综合风险防范——农业自然灾害保险区划与技术［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2016.
[62] SHI Peijun， WANG Jing’ai， FANG Xiuqi， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment and mapping in the Yangtze River Delta region［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2014.
  史培军， 王静爱， 方修琦， 等. 综合风险防范——长江三角洲地区综合自然灾害风险评估与制图［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2014.
[63] XU Wei， TIAN Yugang， ZHANG Yong， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： natural disaster-causing factors and risk grade evaluation in the Yangtze River Delta［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2014.
  徐伟， 田玉刚， 张勇， 等. 综合风险防范——长江三角洲地区自然致灾因子与风险等级评估［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2014.
[64] WANG Jing’ai. Regional disaster system and typhoon disaster chain risk prevention model： a case study of Guangdong［M］. Beijing： China Environmental Science Press， 2013.
  王静爱. 区域灾害系统与台风灾害链风险防范模式——以广东为例［M］. 北京： 中国环境科学出版社， 2013.
[65] SHI Peijun. Comprehensive risk prevention： science， technology and demonstration［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  史培军. 综合风险防范——科学、技术与示范［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[66] YAO Qinghai， LI Ning， LIU Yufeng， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： standards， models and applications［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  姚庆海， 李宁， 刘玉峰， 等. 综合风险防范——标准、模型与应用［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[67] WANG Jing’ai， WU Jianjun， WANG Ping， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： search， simulation and mapping［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  王静爱， 武建军， 王平， 等. 综合风险防范——搜索、模拟与制图［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[68] FANG Weihua， WANG Jing’ai， SHI Peijun， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： database， risk map and network platform［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  方伟华， 王静爱， 史培军， 等. 综合风险防范——数据库、风险地图与网络平台［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[69] ZOU Ming， YUAN Yi， LIAO Yongfeng， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： China comprehensive natural disaster relief and guarantee system［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  邹铭， 袁艺， 廖永丰， 等. 综合风险防范——中国综合自然灾害救助保障体系［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[70] WEI Hualin， YAO Qinghai， TIAN Ling， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： China comprehensive natural disaster risk transfer system［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  魏华林， 姚庆海， 田玲， 等. 综合风险防范——中国综合自然灾害风险转移体系［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[71] WU Shaohong， DAI Erfu， GE Quansheng， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： comprehensive climate change risk in China［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  吴绍洪， 戴尔阜， 葛全胜， 等. 综合风险防范——中国综合气候变化风险［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[72] ZHENG Jingyun， WU Wenxiang， HU Xiulian， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： comprehensive energy and water resources security risk in China［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  郑景云， 吴文祥， 胡秀莲， 等. 综合风险防范——中国综合能源与水资源保障风险［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[73] WANG Yanglin， MENG Jijun， LIU Liming， et al. Comprehensive risk prevention： comprehensive ecological and food safety risks in China［M］. Beijing： Science Press， 2011.
  王仰麟， 蒙吉军， 刘黎明， 等. 综合风险防范——中国综合生态与食物安全风险［M］. 北京： 科学出版社， 2011.
[74] YE Qian. Ice age： unveiling the secrets of paleoclimate［M］. Qingdao： Qingdao Publishing House， 2024.
  叶谦. 冰川时代——揭开古气候的秘密［M］. 青岛： 青岛出版社， 2024.
[75] YE Qian. A brief history of Earth climate evolution［M］. Beijing： China Science and Technology Press， 2019.
  叶谦. 地球气候演化小史［M］. 北京： 中国科学技术出版社， 2019.
[76] Office of the Leading Group for the First National Comprehensive Survey on Natural Disaster Risks of the State Council. Bulletin of the first national comprehensive survey on natural disaster risks［R］. Beijing： Office of the Leading Group for the First National Comprehensive Survey on Natural Disaster Risks of the State Council， 2024.
  国务院第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查领导小组办公室. 第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查公报［R］. 北京： 国务院第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查领导小组办公室， 2024.
[77] SHAFRITZ J M， HYDE A C， eds. LIU J S translated. Public administration classic readings （7th edition?Chinese Edition）［M］. Beijing： China Renmin University Press， 2019.
  沙夫里茨， 艾伯特?C?海德， 主编. 刘俊生， 译. 公共行政学经典（第七版?中国版）［M］. 北京： 中国人民大学出版社， 2019.
[78] RENN O. Risk governance： coping with uncertainty in a complex world［M］. London： Routledge， 2008.
[79] OSTROM E， GARDNER R， WALKER J. Rules， games， and common-pool resources［M］. Michigan： University of Michigan Press， 1994.
[80] SINHA S， SINHA S. Evidence of universality for the May-Wigner stability theorem for random networks with local dynamics［J］. Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear and Soft Matter Physics， 2005， 71（2 Pt 1）. DOI： 10.1103/PhysRevE.71.020902 .
[81] ISRAEL J M. Touching the poor： re-thinking on millennium development goals by promoting participatory governance and local development［J］. Journal of Public Administration and Policy Research， 2014， 6（4）： 59-68.
[82] IPCC. Climate change 2023： synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I， II and III to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate changet［R］. Geneva： Switzerland， 2023.
[83] World Economic Forum （WEF）. Global risks report 2025［R］. Geneva： World Economic Forum， 2025.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉

Address: No. 8, Tianshui Middle Road, Lanzhou, Gansu
QQ：114723517
Tel：0931-8762293　E-mail：adearth@lzb.ac.cn
陇ICP备2021001824号-5　 甘公网安备62010202000687