Security Assessment and Early Warning of Potash Resources in China
Received date: 2021-12-26
Revised date: 2022-02-10
Online published: 2022-06-20
Supported by
the National Social Science Foundation of China “Research on the national security assessment and early warning system of China’s strategic mineral resources (2020-2050)”(18AGL002);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Evaluation theory, method and application in big data environment”(71631006)
Potash is an important strategic mineral resource to ensure national food security. From the perspective of national security, we have constructed a security assessment and early warning index system for potash resources, evaluating the security of potash resources from 2001 to 2020 using constant weight and variable weight evaluation models. Based on this, we also conducted an early warning analysis from 2021 to 2030. The results show that from 2001 to 2007, potash resources have a high degree of security risk and are in a state of insecurity due to low reserve-production ratio and reserve index and high import dependence and concentration. With an increase in the reserve-production ratio and the decrease in import dependence and concentration, the degree of security risk of potash resources decreased slightly and is in the safe state from 2008 to 2020. The security early warning assessment value of potash resources is within the range of 5.08~6.28 from 2021 to 2030, and the early warning level shows a changing trend from blue to yellow and then to blue. From the perspective of risk warning, the public risk factors affecting the security of potash resources are the reserve index, import dependence, and concentration, which should be prevented.
Key words: Potash; Resource security; Assessment; Early warning
Ting LUO , Yongqing ZHANG , Minggui ZHENG , Juan DONG . Security Assessment and Early Warning of Potash Resources in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2022 , 37(6) : 575 -587 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.017
1 | WANG Chunlian, LIU Chenglin, WANG Licheng, et al. Reviews on potash deposit metallogenic conditions [J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(9): 976-987. |
1 | 王春连,刘成林,王立成,等.钾盐矿床成矿条件研究若干进展[J].地球科学进展, 2013, 28(9): 976-987. |
2 | ZHENG Mianping, ZHANG Yongsheng, SHANG Wenjun, et al. Discovery of a new type of polyhalite potassium ore in Puguang region, northeastern Sichuan[J]. Geology in China, 2018, 45(5): 1 074-1 075. |
2 | 郑绵平,张永生,商雯君,等. 川东北普光地区发现新型杂卤石钾盐矿[J].中国地质, 2018, 45(5): 1 074-1 075. |
3 | YANG Fuqiang, CHEN Kegui, HUANG Changbing, et al. Application of PSO-LIBSVM in recognition of potassium salt deposits[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2019, 34(7): 757-764. |
3 | 杨福强,陈科贵,黄长兵,等.PSO-LIBSVM在钾盐矿层识别中的应用研究[J].地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 757-764. |
4 | ZHANG Yongsheng, ZHENG Mianping. Metallogenic models of potassium ore deposits in China and demonstration of deep exploration technology[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2021, 28(6): 1-9. |
4 | 张永生,郑绵平. 中国钾盐矿产基地成矿规律与深部探测技术示范[J].地学前缘, 2021, 28(6): 1-9. |
5 | ZHENG Mianping, YUAN Heran, ZHANG Yongsheng, et al. Regional distribution and prospects of potash in China [J]. Acta Geologica Sinica, 2010, 84(11): 1 523-1 553. |
5 | 郑绵平,袁鹤然,张永生,等.中国钾盐区域分布与找钾远景[J].地质学报, 2010, 84(11): 1 523-1 553. |
6 | APERC. A quest for energy security in the 21st century [R]. Singapore: Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, 2007. |
7 | JANSEN J C, SEEBREGTS A J. Long-term energy services security: what is it and how can it be measured and valued? [J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(4): 1 654-1 664. |
8 | LONG Ruyin, YANG Jiahui. Research status and prospect of national mineral resource security [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3): 465-476. |
8 | 龙如银, 杨家慧.国家矿产资源安全研究现状及展望[J].资源科学, 2018, 40(3): 465-476. |
9 | KNOBLOCH V, ZIMMERMANN T, G??LING-REISEMANN S. From criticality to vulnerability of resource supply: the case of the automobile industry [J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2018,138: 272-282. |
10 | WU Qiaosheng, ZHOU Na, CHENG Jinhua. A review and prospects of the supply security of strategic key minerals [J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(8):1 439-1 451. |
10 | 吴巧生,周娜,成金华.战略性关键矿产资源供给安全研究综述与展望[J].资源科学, 2020,42(8):1 439-1 451. |
11 | LI Zhongshan, YANG Yongqiang, WANG Xiaoliang. Planning sylvite resources at home and abroad as a whole to reverse and demand situation of potash in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22(Suppl.1): 319-321. |
11 | 李钟山,杨永强,王晓亮.统筹国内外钾盐资源扭转我国钾肥供需态势[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(): 319-321. |
12 | ZHOU Yunheng, CHEN Jiawei, YE Ruike, et al. Construction and application of national natural gas security indicator system [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2 645-2 654. |
12 | 周云亨, 陈佳巍,叶瑞克,等.国家天然气安全评价指标体系的构建与应用[J].自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2 645-2 654. |
13 | ZHANG Feng, SONG Xiaona. Resource endowment, technological progress and greenness transformation of manufacturing industry [J]. Statistics and Decision, 2020, 36(13): 98-102. |
13 | 张峰,宋晓娜.资源禀赋、技术进步与制造业绿色转型[J].统计与决策, 2020, 36(13): 98-102. |
14 | WU Xianming. Firm-specific advantages, internationalization motivations, and equity choices in overseas acquisitions: moderating effects of state-owned equity [J]. Business and Management Journal, 2017, 39(12): 41-57. |
14 | 吴先明.企业特定优势、国际化动因与海外并购的股权选择——国有股权的调节作用[J].经济管理, 2017, 39(12): 41-57. |
15 | LIU Litao, SHEN Lei, LIU Xiaojie, et al. Spatial-temporal features of China’s oil trade network and supply security simulation [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1 431-1 443. |
15 | 刘立涛,沈镭,刘晓洁,等.基于复杂网络理论的中国石油流动格局及供应安全分析[J].资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1 431-1 443. |
16 | LIU Quanwen, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, et al. Risk assessment and countermeasures of chromium resource supply in China [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3): 516-525. |
16 | 刘全文,沙景华,闫晶晶,等.中国铬资源供应风险评价与对策研究[J].资源科学,2018, 40(3): 516-525. |
17 | SHEN Lei, ZHONG Shuai, HU Shuhan. Opportunities and challenges of natural resources research of China in the New Era [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(8): 1 773-1 788. |
17 | 沈镭,钟帅,胡纾寒.新时代中国自然资源研究的机遇与挑战[J].自然资源学报,2020, 35(8): 1 773-1 788. |
18 | CUNADO J, GUPTA R, LAU C K M, et al. Time-varying impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [J]. Defence and Peace Economics, 2020, 31(6): 692-706. |
19 | ZHANG J S, ZOU S H. The three-factor model of evaluating mining rights of coal resources based on options [J]. Journal of Coal Science and Engineering (China), 2008, 14(3): 507-511. |
20 | YAN Jiyao, ZHAO Yuan, CUI Panpan, et al. Evolution of temporal and spatial pattern of China’s crude oil import trade from the perspective of petroleum security [J]. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(11): 112-120. |
20 | 鄢继尧,赵媛,崔盼盼,等.石油安全视角下中国原油进口贸易时空格局演化分析[J].经济地理,2020, 40(11): 112-120. |
21 | MA Yufang, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, et al. Safety assessment and countermeasures of nickel resource supply in China [J]. Resources Science, 2019,41(7): 1 317-1 328. |
21 | 马玉芳,沙景华,闫晶晶,等.中国镍资源供应安全评价与对策研究[J].资源科学,2019,41(7): 1 317-1 328. |
22 | SUN J W. Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: a complete decomposition model [J]. Energy Economics, 1998, 20(1): 85-100. |
23 | CORNILLIE J, FANKHAUSER S. The energy intensity of transition countries [J]. Energy Economics, 2004, 26(3): 283-295. |
24 | KONG Ting, SUN Linyan, HE Zhe. A study on regional industrial energy intensity: an empirical analysis based on panel data model of different provinces in China [J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(7): 1 222-1 229. |
24 | 孔婷,孙林岩,何哲.中国工业能源消耗强度的区域差异——基于省(市)面板数据模型的实证分析[J].资源科学, 2010, 32(7): 1 222-1 229. |
25 | WANG Zeyu, XU Jing, WANG Yanxi. Factor decomposition and spatio-temporal difference analysis in marine resource consumption intensity in China [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(2): 301-312. |
25 | 王泽宇,徐静,王焱熙.中国海洋资源消耗强度因素分解与时空差异分析[J].资源科学, 2019, 41(2): 301-312. |
26 | GORDON T, PEASE A. RT Delphi: an efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 73(4): 321-333. |
27 | ZHONG Yi, LIU Jiapeng. Study on the volatility spillover of economic policy uncertainty and financial instability. [J]. Inquiry Into Economic Issues, 2018(9): 21-30. |
27 | 钟意,刘家鹏.经济政策不确定性与金融不稳定的波动性外溢研究[J].经济问题探索,2018(9): 21-30. |
28 | DENG Qiping, CHEN Weijing, ZHANG Lingling, et al. Research fronts analysis of ai based on multidimensional feature measure [J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2020,39(3): 56-62. |
28 | 邓启平,陈卫静,张玲玲,等.基于多维特征测度的人工智能领域研究前沿分析[J].情报杂志,2020,39(3): 56-62. |
29 | WANG Limao. Influential factors and index system for appraising resources security [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002,17(4): 401-408. |
29 | 王礼茂.资源安全的影响因素与评估指标[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(4): 401-408. |
30 | FAN Songmei, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, et al. Risk assessment and management of iron ore resource supply in China [J]. Resources Science, 2018,40(3): 507-515. |
30 | 范松梅,沙景华,闫晶晶,等.中国铁矿石资源供应风险评价与治理研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(3): 507-515. |
31 | ZHANG Xiaoping, SUN Lei. Decomposition of energy intensity change in China’s industrial sub-sectors [J]. Resources Science, 2010,32(9): 1 685-1 691. |
31 | 张晓平,孙磊.中国工业能源消费强度变化的分解分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(9): 1 685-1 691. |
32 | QIN Haixu, DUAN Xuejun, ZHAO Haixia, et al. Research on monitoring and early warning of carrying capacity of resources and environment in Nanjing [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2020, 29(12): 2 727-2 736. |
32 | 秦海旭,段学军,赵海霞,等.南京市资源环境承载力监测预警研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(12): 2 727-2 736. |
33 | LI Hong, JIANG Longzhi, HE Siyu. Relative poverty identification system and monitoring and early warning mechanism in rural areas [J]. Rural Economy, 2020(11): 69-78. |
33 | 李洪,蒋龙志,何思妤.农村相对贫困识别体系与监测预警机制研究:来自四川省X县的数据[J].农村经济,2020(11): 69-78. |
34 | WANG Peizhuang. Fuzzy sets and random sets falling shadows [M]. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 1985. |
34 | 汪培庄.模糊集与随机集落影[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社, 1985. |
35 | LIU Wenqi. Balanced function and its application for variable weight synthesizing. [J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 1997,17(4): 58-64,74. |
35 | 刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践, 1997,17(4): 58-64,74. |
36 | LIU Wenqi. Punishment-incentive utility in variable weight synthesis [J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 1998,18(4): 41-47. |
36 | 刘文奇.变权综合中的惩罚:激励效用[J].系统工程理论与实践, 1998,18(4): 41-47. |
37 | WU Q, LI B, CHEN Y L. Vulnerability assessment of groundwater inrush from underlying aquifers based on variable weight model and its application [J]. Water Resources Management, 2016, 30(10): 3 331-3 345. |
38 | ZHANG Lulu, ZHENG Xinqi, ZHANG Chunxiao, et al. Early-warning of urban vulnerability in Tangshan city based on variable weight model [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(11): 1 858-1 870. |
38 | 张路路, 郑新奇, 张春晓, 等.基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(11): 1 858-1 870. |
39 | HAN Guoying, LIU Xiumei. Research on dynamic early warning of urban sustainable development based on penalty variable weight: taking Baotou, a resource-based city in inner Mongolia, as an example [J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2019, 34(1): 83-93. |
39 | 韩国莹,刘秀梅.基于惩罚型变权的城市可持续发展动态预警——以内蒙古资源型城市包头为例[J].统计与信息论坛, 2019, 34(1): 83-93. |
40 | China Industrial Economic Information Network. Current situation and demand forecast of China’s potash (fertilizer) industry [EB/OL]. (2019-08-27)[2021-12-18]. . |
40 | 中国产业经济信息网. 中国钾盐(肥)行业运行现状及需求预测[EB/OL]. (2019-08-27)[2021-12-18]. . |
41 | QI Zhaoying, QU Xiaorong, DU Shuangjiang, et al. Analysis on the operation of potash fertilizer industry in 2019 and its development trend in the next five years[J]. Phosphate & Compound Fertilizer, 2020, 35(4): 1-5. |
41 | 亓昭英,屈小荣,杜双江,等.2019年我国钾肥行业运行情况及未来5年发展趋势分析[J].磷肥与复肥, 2020, 35(4): 1-5. |
42 | United States Geological Survey (USGS). Mineral commodity summaries 2021[DB/OL]. (2021-01-29)[2021-12-18]. . |
43 | China Industry Overseas Development Association. Can the potash fertilizer market improve in 2020? [EB/OL]. (2020-03-09)[2021-12-18]. . |
43 | 中国产业海外发展协会:2020年钾肥市场能否好转?[EB/OL].(2020-03-09)[2021-12-18]. . |
44 | Research Group of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the CASS. Research on the potential growth of the Chinese economy in the next 15 years and the main goals and indicators of economic and social development during the 14th five-year plan period [J]. China Industrial Economics, 2020(4): 5-22. |
44 | 中国社会科学院宏观经济研究中心课题组.未来15年中国经济增长潜力与“十四五”时期经济社会发展主要目标及指标研究[J].中国工业经济,2020(4): 5-22. |
45 | Nations United, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division Population. World population prospects 2019[M/OL]. New York:United Nations, 2019[2021-12-18]. . |
46 | ZHANG Jinping, QIN Yaochen, ZHANG Yan, et al. Measurement of urban CO2 emission structure and low-carbon standard—a case study for Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing city [J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2010, 30(6): 874-879. |
46 | 张金萍, 秦耀辰, 张艳, 等.城市CO2排放结构与低碳水平测度——以京津沪渝为例[J].地理科学,2010, 30(6): 874-879. |
/
〈 |
|
〉 |