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Security Assessment and Early Warning of Potash Resources in China
Ting LUO 1( ), Yongqing ZHANG 1, Minggui ZHENG 2 , 3( ), Juan DONG 2
Advances in Earth Science 2022, 37 (6): 575- 587.

Potash is an important strategic mineral resource to ensure national food security. From the perspective of national security, we have constructed a security assessment and early warning index system for potash resources, evaluating the security of potash resources from 2001 to 2020 using constant weight and variable weight evaluation models. Based on this, we also conducted an early warning analysis from 2021 to 2030. The results show that from 2001 to 2007, potash resources have a high degree of security risk and are in a state of insecurity due to low reserve-production ratio and reserve index and high import dependence and concentration. With an increase in the reserve-production ratio and the decrease in import dependence and concentration, the degree of security risk of potash resources decreased slightly and is in the safe state from 2008 to 2020. The security early warning assessment value of potash resources is within the range of 5.08~6.28 from 2021 to 2030, and the early warning level shows a changing trend from blue to yellow and then to blue. From the perspective of risk warning, the public risk factors affecting the security of potash resources are the reserve index, import dependence, and concentration, which should be prevented.

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