Articles

Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction

  • Wang Chenghai ,
  • Wang Zhilan ,
  • Guo Yipeng
Expand
  • 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster  of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, Chnia;
    2.Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, Chnia

Received date: 2011-12-19

  Revised date: 2012-05-29

  Online published: 2012-09-10

Abstract

A new drought index, which is based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was proposed. The GEV index’s theory and method was introduced. By using the monthly precipitation data of 160 sites during 19512010, the drought events calculated and observed are compared and validated. By predicting the drought events occurred during 20092010, the prediction performances of the GEV drought index is validated on monthly scale. The results show that the GEV method has well performances for drought monitoring and prediction, which also has good agreement with CI index, which is widely used for drought monitoring practices. Meanwhile, this drought index can be used for the predication of drought climatology and categorizing of the drought severity. The results also show that the index has good performances in observation sites density regions, but it has some errors in sitesparse regions.

Cite this article

Wang Chenghai , Wang Zhilan , Guo Yipeng . Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2012 , 27(9) : 957 -968 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.09.0957

References

[1]Qian Zheng’an, Wu Tongwen, Song Minhong,et al. Arid disaster and advances in arid climate researches over Northwest China[J]. Advances in Earth Sciences, 2001,16(1):28-38.[钱正安,吴统文,宋敏红,等. 干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题[J]. 地球科学进展,2001,16(1):28-38.]

[2]Wang Chenghai. Climate Change and Desertification[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press, 2003.[王澄海.气候变化与荒漠化[M].北京:气象出版社,2003. ]

[3]Barry R G. The past and present of drought climate[C]∥World Desert Studies. Chongqing: Chongqing Branch of Scientific and Technique Press, 1985:16-19.[ Barry R G. 干旱气候的过去和现在[C]∥世界沙漠研究.重庆: 科学技术出版社重庆分社, 1985:16-19. ]

[4]Druyan L M. Advances in the study of sub-Saharan drought[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1989,9(1):77-90, doi:10.1002/joc.3370090107.

[5]Charney J G. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the sahel[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1975, 101(428): 193-202.

[6]Webb R S, Rosenzweig C E, Levine E R. Specifying land surface characteristics in general circulation models: Soil profile dataset and derived water-holding capacities[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1993,7(1):97-108.

[7]Wang Chenghai, Wang Leidi. Characteristics of sensible and latent heat fluxes in semi-arid region of Northwest China and change trend in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2010,29(4): 849-854.[王澄海,王蕾迪. 西北半干旱区感、潜热通量特征及近50年来的变化趋势[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):849-854.]

[8]Wang Chenghai, Wang Shigong, Yang Debao, et al. The correlation between the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and precipitation over NW China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2002,18(4):374-382.[王澄海,王式功,杨德保,等.中国西北春季降水与太平洋海温相关特征的研究[J].热带气象学报,2002,18(4):374-382.]

[9]Wang Chenghai, Dong Wenjie, Wei Zhigang, et al. The simulation and analysis of land-surface processes on the typical arid area[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2002,21(5):466-472.[王澄海,董文杰,韦志刚,等.典型干旱地区陆面特征的模拟及分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(5):466-472.]

[10]Zhang Cunjie, Wang Baoling, Liu Dexiang, et al. Research on drought and flood indices in the Northwest China[J]. Plateau Meteorology,1998,17(4):381-389.[〖CX〗张存杰,王宝灵,刘德祥,等. 西北地区旱涝指标的研究[J].高原气象,1998,17(4): 381-389.]

[11]Yuan Wenping, Zhou Guangsheng. Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):523-529.[袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标和Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.]

[12]Wang Jinsong, Guo Jiangyong, Zhou Yuewu, et al. Progress and prospect on drought indices research[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2007,30(1):60-65.[王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等. 干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1): 60-65.]

[13]Yuan Wenping, Zhou Guangsheng. Theoretical study and research prospect on drought indices[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2004,19(6):982-991.[袁文平,周广胜. 干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望[J]. 地球科学进展,2004,19(6): 982-991.]

[14]Zhang Qiang, Zhang Liang, Cui Xiancheng,et al. Progresses and challenges in drought assessment and monitoring[J].Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(7): 763-778. [张强,张良,崔显成,等. 干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J]. 地球科学进展,2011,26(7):763-778.]

[15]Huang Ronghui, Chen Jilong, Zhou Liantong,et al. Studies on the relationship between the severe climate disasters in China and the East Asia climate system[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, 27(4): 770-787.[黄荣辉,陈际龙,周连童,等. 关于中国重大气候灾害与东亚气候系统之间关系的研究[J].大气科学,2003,27(4): 770-787.]

[16]Wang Chenghai, Hui Xiaoying. Borderline variations of desertification and grassland over China viewed from NDVI 0.12[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2005, 25(1):88-92.[王澄海,惠小英. 以植被指数0.12为指标看我国的荒漠化与草原界限的变化[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(1): 88-92.]

[17]Palmer W C. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No.45[R]. Washington DC:Deptartment of Commerce,1965.

[18]McKee T B, Doesken N J, Khist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]∥Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology.1993:179-184.

[19]Keyantash J, Dracup J A. The qualification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society,2002, 83:1 167-1 180.

[20]Sun Anjian, Gao Bo. A diagnostic analyses of serious flood/drought during summer season in the North China plane[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2000, 24(3):393-402.[孙安键,高波. 华北平原地区夏季严重旱涝特征诊断分析[J].大气科学,2000,24(3): 393-402.]

[21]Wang Zhiwei, Zhai Panmao. Climate change in drought over Northern China during 1950-2000[J]. Acta Geographical Sinica,2003,58(Suppl.1): 61-68.[王志伟,翟盘茂. 中国北方近50年干旱特征变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊1): 61-68.]

[22]Zou Xukai, Ren Guoyu, Zhang Qiang. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):371-378.[邹旭恺,任国玉,张强.基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):371-378.]

[23]Dai A, Trenberth K E, Qian T. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004,5:1 117-1 130.

[24]Dai A, Trenberth K E, Karl T. Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1998, 25(17):3 367-3 370.

[25]Zhao Xuchun, Wang Chenghai, Zhang Yongsheng, et al. Application, comparison and research of two kinds of grade indices of drought analysis in Wuhai area[J]. Scientia Meteorological Sinica, 2007, 27(Suppl.1):162-168.[赵旭春,王澄海,张永生,等. 两种干旱指标在乌海地区干旱分析中的应用比较研究[J].气象科学,2007,27(增刊1):162-168.]

[26]Ding Jing, Yuan Peng, Yang Rongfu,et al. Stochastic analysis of the drought properties of the main rivers in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1997, 52(4): 374-381.[丁晶,袁鹏,杨荣富,等. 中国主要河流干旱特征的统计分析[J].地理学报,1997,52(4): 374-381.]

[27]American Meteorological Society (AMS) . Meteorological drought—Policy statement[J]. Bullin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997,78:847-849.

[28]Wilhite D A. Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions[C]∥Wilhite D A ed. Droughts: Global Assessment. London: Routledge, 2000: 3-18.

[29]Ding Yuguo. Theoretical basis for discussing disaster disciplinarian—The probability of extreme climate event[J]. Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research, 2006, 29(1): 44-50.[丁裕国. 探讨灾害规律的理论基础——极端气候事件概率[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(1): 44-50.]

[30]Jenkinson A F. The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) of meteorological elements[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1955, 81(348):158-171.

[31]Stedinger J R. Estimating a regional flood frequency distribution[J]. Water Resource Research, 1983, 19(2):503-510.

[32]Jin Guangyan. General extreme value distribution and its application to hydrology[J]. Hydrology, 1998,(2):9-15.[金光炎. 广义极值分布及其在水文中的应用[J].水文,1998,(2): 9-15.]

[33]Liu Cong, Qin Weiliang, Jiang Zhihong. Computation of design basic wind velocity and its confidence limits based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition), 2006,36(2):331-334.[刘聪,秦伟良, 江志红. 基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算[J]. 东南大学学报: 自然科学版,2006,36(2): 331-334.]

[34]Luo Chun, Wang Zhujuan. The estimates of the parameters of Gumbel distribution and their application to the analysis of the water level data[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statisties, 2005, 21(2): 169-175.[罗纯,王筑娟. Gumbel 分布参数估计及在水位资料中的运用[J].运用概率统计,2005,21(2): 169-175.]

[35]Chen Zishen, Liu Zengmei, Lu Jianfei,et al. Calculation of design wave heights based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2011, 30 (3): 24-29. [陈子燊,刘曾美,路剑飞,等. 基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算[J].热带海洋学报,2011,30(3):24-29.]

[36]Su Buda, Jiang Tong. Distribution feature of time series of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2008,20(1):123-128. [苏布达,姜彤. 长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(1): 123-128.]

[37]Yao Yubi, Dong Anxiang, Zhang Xiuyun, et al. Comparison research on characteristics of regional drought in summer over China[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2009,27(1):248-253.[姚玉璧,董安祥,张秀云,等. 中国夏季区域干旱特征比较研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(1): 248-253.]

[38]Song Guiying, Pan Jinjun, Wang Demin, et al. Analysis of the moisture transportation characteristics on summer drought in Inner Mongolia[J].Meterological Monthly,2007,33(6):75-81.[宋桂英,潘进军,王德民,等. 内蒙古夏季干旱的水汽输送特征分析[J].气象,2007,33(6):75-81.]

[39]Huang Ronghui, Xu Yuhong, Zhou Liantong. The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China [J]. Plateau Meterology, 1999, 18(4): 465-476.[黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童. 我国夏季降水年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):465-476.]

[40]Wei Fengying, Zhang Xiangong. Dryness and wetness grades series during 1991-2000 in China[J]. Meteorology,2001,27(2):46-50.[魏凤英,张先恭. 1991—2000年中国旱涝等级资料[J].气象,2001,27(2):46-50.]

[41]Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Hu Ruji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002,24(3): 220-226.[施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):220-226.]

[42]Wang Jinsong, Guo Jiangyong, Qing Jizu. Application of a kind of K drought analysis in northwest China[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2007,22(5): 709-717.[王劲松,郭江勇,倾继祖. 一种K干旱指数在西北地区春旱分析中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(5):709-717.]

[43]World Meteorological Organization. International Meteorological Vocabulary[R]. WMO, 1992:784.

Outlines

/