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Advances in Earth Science  2012, Vol. 27 Issue (9): 957-968    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.09.0957
Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction
Wang Chenghai1, Wang Zhilan2, Guo Yipeng1
1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster  of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, Chnia;
2.Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, Chnia
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A new drought index, which is based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was proposed. The GEV index’s theory and method was introduced. By using the monthly precipitation data of 160 sites during 19512010, the drought events calculated and observed are compared and validated. By predicting the drought events occurred during 20092010, the prediction performances of the GEV drought index is validated on monthly scale. The results show that the GEV method has well performances for drought monitoring and prediction, which also has good agreement with CI index, which is widely used for drought monitoring practices. Meanwhile, this drought index can be used for the predication of drought climatology and categorizing of the drought severity. The results also show that the index has good performances in observation sites density regions, but it has some errors in sitesparse regions.

Key words:  GEV distribution      Drought Index      Drought Monitoring     
Received:  19 December 2011      Published:  10 September 2012
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Wang Chenghai
Wang Zhilan
Guo Yipeng

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Wang Chenghai, Wang Zhilan, Guo Yipeng. Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction. Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(9): 957-968.

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