Research Progress on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution, Formation Mechanism and Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Winds

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.082

Advances in Earth Science ›› 2024, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1097-1111.DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.082

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Research Progress on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution, Formation Mechanism and Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Winds

Jianhua SUN¹^,²(), Fuyou TIAN³, Rudi XIA⁴, Linlin ZHENG⁵, Yue HUANG¹^,²

^1.Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
^2.University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^3.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
^4.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
^5.Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2024-09-10 Revised:2024-10-02 Online:2024-11-10 Published:2025-01-17
About author:SUN Jianhua, research areas include mesoscale meteorology and disaster weather. E-mail: sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn
Supported by:
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375008);The Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation(8222079);Jianghuai Meteorological Joint Project of Anhui Natural Science Foundation(2208085UQ11)

雷暴大风的时空分布、形成机理和预报方法研究进展

孙建华¹^,²(), 田付友³, 夏茹娣⁴, 郑淋淋⁵, 黄玥¹^,²

^1.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室，北京 100029
^2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
^3.国家气象中心，北京 100081
^4.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081
^5.安徽省气象台，安徽合肥 230031

作者简介:孙建华，主要从事灾害天气和中尺度气象学的研究. E-mail：sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42375008);北京市自然科学基金项目(8222079);安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金项目(2208085UQ11)

Abstract

Abstract:

Significant advances in the formation mechanism and forecasting methods of severe convective winds and related convective systems were reviewed to improve understanding of the formation mechanism and forecast accuracy of severe convective winds. First, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of severe convective winds worldwide are briefly described. Next, the relationship between the organizational types and structural features of the parent convective systems that generate severe convective winds is then summarized, as well as the impact of atmospheric environmental conditions and topography, and forecasting methods. Finally, the current issues and future research directions associated with severe convective winds are discussed.

Key words: Severe convective wind, Organizational mode, Atmospheric environmental condition, Prediction method

摘要：

雷暴大风是预报难度较大的强对流天气之一，为了提高对雷暴大风形成机理的认识和预报准确率，对国内外雷暴大风和相关对流系统的形成机理与预报方法的重要成果进行了回顾。简要介绍了世界上雷暴大风的时空分布特征，中国的雷暴大风主要发生在东部地区，华北北部、东北中南部和广东为高发区。概述了产生雷暴大风的母对流系统的组织类型、结构特征以及雷暴大风的形成机制：飑线和弓状回波是产生雷暴大风的主要对流系统之一，且容易产生强雷暴大风；飑线或者弓状回波中的后向入流、γ-中尺度涡旋等系统是产生地面大风的重要结构特征。总结了雷暴大风发生的大气环境条件和预报方法：大气环境的有关热力和动力因子都会影响雷暴大风的产生和强度，但对流活动的强度主要依赖于对流有效位能和垂直风切变的共变关系；数值预报、基于物理理解的方法（配料法）和深度学习/机器学习方法是目前在雷暴大风的短临、短期预报业务中采用的主要方法。最后指出针对我国雷暴大风，在精细的时空分布特征、不同大气环境条件下形成机理和预报方法等方面仍有待进一步研究。

关键词: 雷暴大风, 组织类型, 大气环境条件, 预报方法

CLC Number:

P435

Jianhua SUN, Fuyou TIAN, Rudi XIA, Linlin ZHENG, Yue HUANG. Research Progress on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution, Formation Mechanism and Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Winds[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2024, 39(11): 1097-1111.

孙建华, 田付友, 夏茹娣, 郑淋淋, 黄玥. 雷暴大风的时空分布、形成机理和预报方法研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2024, 39(11): 1097-1111.

Figures/Tables 4

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of the occurrence frequency of convective weather in North China during the warm season from 2011 to 2020（a） All severe convective wind；（b） Ordinary severe convective wind；（c） Significant severe convective wind

Fig. 2 Schematic diagram of severe convective wind and organizational modes of convective systems in North ChinaThe colored shading being the radar echo and wind barb representing the severe convective wind

Fig. 3 Schematic diagram of formation of the severe convection wind by line-shape convective systems（a） Schematic diagram illustrating damaging and nondamaging mesovortices formed within a bow echo［68］；（b） Schematic showing proposed effect of low-level mesovortices on QLCS structure and also their role in the production of damaging surface winds. Black stippling on the south-southwest flank of this mesovortex shows the area of instantaneous damaging “straight line” winds driven by the vortex circulation. A lesser area， or a narrow strip of such winds， is indicated well southeast of the vortex， at the apex of the primary bowing segment. These winds are due to a rear-inflow jet that descends to the ground， represented by the black streamlines in the other vertical plane［67］

Fig. 4 Conceptual model for the generation of near-surface high winds ［71］（a）The early stage；（b）The merger stage

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Research Progress on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution, Formation Mechanism and Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Winds

雷暴大风的时空分布、形成机理和预报方法研究进展

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