Advances in Earth Science ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 376-385. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.04.0376

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Study Progress in Prediction Strategy and Methodology on Numerical Model

REN Hong-li 1,2,CHOU Ji-fan 2   

  • Received:2006-09-18 Revised:2007-01-31 Online:2007-04-10 Published:2007-04-10

REN Hong-li,CHOU Ji-fan. Study Progress in Prediction Strategy and Methodology on Numerical Model[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(4): 376-385.

At present, numerical prediction has been a primary technique for objective forecast after half a century's development. Under the circumstance of model and data given, the improvement of predictive level is to great extent dependent on the prediction strategy and method that are employed. In the present paper, the study progress in prediction strategy and methodology on numerical model in the world, which primarily includes the correction of prediction errors, ensemble prediction techniques and so on, has been comprehensively reviewed. It is suggested that there exist a feasible approach to improving predictive level based on prediction strategy by combining statistical and dynamical methods together and extracting information from historical data. Moreover, on the basis of summarizing previous work, the studies on the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction developed in recent years are also introduced, especially including situations of prediction experiments in complex operational model.

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