Advances in Earth Science ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 165-176. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.010

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Application of Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Methods in the Targeting Observations and Field Campaigns of Tropical Cyclones

Wansuo DUAN 1 , 2( ), Xiaohao QIN 1( )   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China
    2.College of Marine Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 101408,China
  • Received:2021-12-22 Revised:2022-01-19 Online:2022-02-10 Published:2022-03-08
  • Contact: Xiaohao QIN E-mail:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn;xhqin@lasg.iap.ac.cn
  • About author:DUAN Wansuo
    DUAN Wansuo (1973-), Yangcheng County, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include air-sea interaction, as well as the predictability, targeting observation, data assimilation and ensemble forecasts of high-impact weather and climate events. E-mail: duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
    QIN Xiaohao. Application of nonlinear optimal perturbation methods in the targeting observations and field campaigns of tropical cyclones[J].
  • Supported by:
    the National Key Research and Development Program "Targeting observation research on typhoons"(2018YFC1506402);The National Natural Science Foundation of China "The nonlinear forcing singular vector-ensemble forecast method and its application in the predictability study in El Ni?o and tropical cyclone"(41930971)

Wansuo DUAN, Xiaohao QIN. Application of Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Methods in the Targeting Observations and Field Campaigns of Tropical Cyclones[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2022, 37(2): 165-176.

The authors review the major progresses in the targeting observations and field campaigns for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) using their proposed nonlinear optimal perturbation methods. They used condition nonlinear optimal perturbation, which aims at reducing the initial errors for numerical models, to identify the sensitive regions for TC track and intensity forecasts. This guides both FY-4 satellite and dropsonde in the field campaigns to effectively collect valuable observation data. Furthermore, they investigated the sensitivity of TC intensity forecast to model errors using nonlinear forcing singular vector, which indicates both the sensitive regions and variables in troposphere and the sensitive regions of sea surface temperature. Simultaneously, they also identified the sensitive regions and variables in the boundary layer during a rapid intensification process of a TC using ensemble perturbation method. In final the unresolved problems, possible solutions, and future recommendations in the targeting observations for TCs are discussed.

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