SARS传播时间过程的参数反演和趋势预测

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.06.0925

地球科学进展 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (6): 925 -930. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.06.0925

韩卫国 ^{1, 2};王劲峰 ¹;刘旭华 ^{1, 2}

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室，北京 100101；中国科学院研究生院，北京 100039

收稿日期:2004-01-29 修回日期:2004-05-24 出版日期:2004-12-20
通讯作者: 韩卫国（1976-），男，山西省夏县人，博士研究生，主要从事空间分析、时空数据挖掘、GIS应用与开发方面研究. E-mail:E-mail: hanwg@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）项目“SARS流行病学资料的实时收集、分析和趋势预测”（编号：2003AA208401）；国家自然科学基金项目“SARS传播时空模型研究”（编号：40341002）资助.

BACK ANALYZING PARAMETERS AND PREDICTING TREND OF SARS TRANSMISSION

HAN Wei-guo ^{1, 2}, WANG Jin-feng ¹, LIU Xu-hua ^{1, 2}

1.State Key Laboratory of Resources & Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China

Received:2004-01-29 Revised:2004-05-24 Online:2004-12-20 Published:2004-12-01

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以公布的香港和北京SARS疫情数据为实例，采用SIR模型对SARS传播的时间过程进行参数反演，获取两地SARS高峰期、住院人数、移出系数等重要参数，模型计算结果与实际数据基本相符，通过参数反演很好地解释了SARS时间传播过程，说明SIR模型可以用于SARS传播的数据拟合、趋势预测和过程模拟。

关键词: 模拟退火法, 刚性问题, 非线性极值, SIR模型

This paper uses SIR model to back-analyze the parameters of SARS transmission based on the data released by the health authorities of Beijing and Hong Kong, we get the important parameters such as the peak period, the hospitalized cases and the removed parameter. It can be seen that these parameters of the model allow for better understanding of the SARS transmission because the result fits the actual data approximately. As a result, SIR model could be used to fit data, predict trend and simulate process of SARS transmission.

Key words: Simulated Anneal Algorithm, Non-linear Extremum., SIR Model, Stiff Problem

中图分类号:

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