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地球科学进展  2004, Vol. 19 Issue (6): 925-930    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.06.0925
韩卫国1, 2;王劲峰1;刘旭华1, 2
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京 100039
HAN Wei-guo1, 2, WANG Jin-feng1, LIU Xu-hua1, 2
1.State Key Laboratory of Resources & Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
 全文: PDF(145 KB)  


关键词: 模拟退火法刚性问题非线性极值SIR模型    

This paper uses SIR model to back-analyze the parameters of SARS transmission based on the data released by the health authorities of Beijing and Hong Kong, we get the important parameters such as the peak period, the hospitalized cases and the removed parameter. It can be seen that these parameters of the model allow for better understanding of the SARS transmission because the result fits the actual data approximately. As a result, SIR model could be used to fit data, predict trend and simulate process of SARS transmission.

Key words: Simulated Anneal Algorithm    Non-linear Extremum.    SIR Model    Stiff Problem
收稿日期: 2004-01-29 出版日期: 2004-12-01
:  TP79  


通讯作者: 韩卫国(1976-),男,山西省夏县人,博士研究生,主要从事空间分析、时空数据挖掘、GIS应用与开发方面研究.      E-mail: E-mail:
作者简介: 韩卫国(1976-),男,山西省夏县人,博士研究生,主要从事空间分析、时空数据挖掘、GIS应用与开发方面研究.E-mail:
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韩卫国;王劲峰;刘旭华. SARS传播时间过程的参数反演和趋势预测[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(6): 925-930.

HAN Wei-guo, WANG Jin-feng, LIU Xu-hua. BACK ANALYZING PARAMETERS AND PREDICTING TREND OF SARS TRANSMISSION. Advances in Earth Science, 2004, 19(6): 925-930.


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