地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.037   cstr: 32269.14.adearth.CN62-1091/P.2026.037

   

基于深度学习的云特性短临预报研究与应用进展
房宸蔚1,史月琴1*,谭超1,沈淑婧1,李扬2   
  1. (1. 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室,中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京 100081;2. 南京气象科技创新研究院,中国气象科学研究院—江苏省气象局,江苏 南京 210041)
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(编号:U2342222);中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室创新基金项目(编号:2024CPML-C020);中国气象局人工影响天气中心创新团队项目(编号:WMC2023IT01)

Development and Applications in Deep Learning‑Based Nowcasting for Cloud Characteristics

Fang Chenwei1, Shi Yueqin1*, Tan Chao1, Shen Shujing1, Li Yang2   

  1. (1. China Meteorological Administration Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification Key Laboratory (CPML), China Meteorological Administration Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Nanjing Innovation Institute for Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences-Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210041, China)
  • About author:Fang Chenwei, research areas include deep learning-based cloud nowcasting and weather modification research.E-mail: fangcw@cma.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U2342222); The Innovation Fund of the Key Laboratory of Cloud and Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No.2024CPML-C020); The Innovation Team Project of the Weather Modification Center, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No.WMC2023IT01).
云宏微观特性的短临变化是未来天气演变的重要表征,深度学习方法相较于数值模式和光流法等实况外推法,更能满足云特性短临预报在时效性、空间分辨率和准确性等方面的要求。相较于针对雷达、降水等变量的深度学习短临预测,深度学习在云属性外推的研究与应用虽然较少,但各类模型架构和数据已通过多种融合方式运用到特定任务目标,这些工作亟须系统性分类和讨论。鉴于人工影响天气、航空安全、能源预报等多个领域对云特性短临预报需求的持续增长,在评估不同深度学习架构与云相关任务适配性的基础上,分别总结了以云宏观和微观特性为目标的国内外最新研究进展。同时,深入探讨了深度学习和数值模式云微物理方案融合的不同技术方法,并归纳了全球范围内以深度学习为基础的云产品业务建设进展。通过分析云宏微观量短临预测的技术难点,指出未来云宏观量预报应引入云生消物理机制并发展概率性预报,云微观量短临预报可探索基于高质量云微物理量反演产品的时序预测、宏—微观量跨尺度迁移学习以及深度学 习与云微物理参数化方案耦合等发展路径。
Abstract: The short-term evolution of macrophysical and microphysical cloud properties serves as a crucial indicator of future weather evolution. Compared with numerical models and optical flow-based nowcasting methods, Deep Learning (DL) approaches better meet the requirements of cloud-condition nowcasting in terms of timeliness, spatial resolution, and accuracy. Although DL-based research on cloud properties remains less extensive than that aimed at radar reflectivity and precipitation nowcasting, a growing variety of model architectures and data fusion strategies has emerged to address specific task objectives, necessitating a systematic classification and comprehensive review of existing studies. Driven by the increasing demand for cloud nowcasting across weather modification, aviation safety, solar power forecasting, and disaster prevention and mitigation, this paper first evaluates the suitability of major DL architectures for cloud-related tasks. Recent domestic and international research advances targeting both cloud macrophysical (e.g., cloud top height, cloud cover, and cloud optical depth) and microphysical properties (e.g., liquid water content, ice water content, and droplet number concentration) are reviewed separately, covering model architectures, input data sources, and task-specific methodologies. This is followed by an in-depth examination of different technical approaches for integrating DL models with cloud physics parameterization schemes in numerical models, which offers a complementary pathway to improving the explicit forecast of cloud liquid water content, ice water content, and related variables. Furthermore, DL-based cloud-related operational systems implemented or under development in major meteorological services worldwide are summarized. Based on an analysis of the key technical challenges in short-term nowcasting of cloud macrophysical and microphysical variables, this review identifies promising directions for future development. For cloud macrophysical nowcasting, future efforts should focus on incorporating more complete physical mechanisms governing cloud formation and dissipation, as well as advancing probabilistic forecast frameworks based on generative models. For cloud microphysical nowcasting, which remains at an early stage, potential directions include developing time-series prediction models leveraging high-quality cloud microphysical retrieval products as training data, exploiting macro-to-micro cross-scale transfer learning by pretraining on abundant cloud macrophysical observations, and fine-tuning with scarce microphysical retrievals, and improving NWP-driven microphysical nowcasting through DL-microphysics scheme coupling.

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