为探究区域尺度极端径流演变及其气候驱动机制，以对气候变化较为敏感的湟水流域为 例，搜集流域8 个站点日均流量数据，基于Mann-Kendall 趋势分析和突变检验等方法定量评估径流 极值年际变化特征及其与极端降水、极端高温之间的关联。结果表明：近几十年，以3 年为周期，极 端高流量指数波动下降而极端低流量指数波动上升，湟水流域径流极端性有所降低；两类指数分 别在2000 年与2010 年发生突变，2000 年以前极端高流量指数水平较高而极端低流量指数较低， 2010 年后二者呈相反状态，之间均处于较低水平。极端径流变化与近几十年流域整体极端降水强 度显著上升和极端高温增强有关；具体表现为极端高流量与极端降水正相关，与极端高温负相关； 极端低流量与极端高温正相关为主，与极端降水相关性不明显。研究结果可为气候、水资源敏感 区域应对气候变化策略及水资源可持续管理做参考。

To investigate the evolution of extreme runoff at the regional scale and its climatic driving mechanisms, the Huangshui River Basin, sensitive to climate change, was selected as a case study. Daily average flow data were collected from seven stations within the basin. Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend analysis and mutation tests were used to assess the interannual variation of extreme runoff and its associations with extreme precipitation and extreme high temperatures.The results show that over the past 60 years, the extreme high flow index in the basin has decreased significantly, while the extreme low flow index has increased notably. The frequency index did not show any significant trend, but all indices demonstrated persistence. A mutation in the high flow index occurred around 2000, while mutations in the low flow and frequency indices were noted in 2010. In terms of cycles, a short cycle of approximately three years was observed for all indices. Additionally, the frequency index exhibited a long cycle of 32.5 years. The variations in runoff were significantly related to an overall increase in extreme precipitation intensity, a decrease in precipitation duration, and the intensification of extreme high temperatures in the basin. Extreme high flow was positively correlated with extreme precipitation and negatively correlated with extreme high temperatures. In contrast, extreme low flow showed a primary positive correlation with extreme high temperatures, with a less significant correlation to extreme precipitation. These findings provide important insights for the utilization of water resources and flood disaster reduction in the Huangshui River Basin.