地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.049.

   

对流允许尺度区域气候模拟和未来预估的最新进展
熊雅婷1,2,董广涛1,2*   
  1. (1. 中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海 200030;2. 上海市气候中心,上海 200030)
  • 通讯作者: 董广涛,正研级高级工程师,主要从事区域气候模式研发及应用工作. E-mail: gtdong@163.com

New Advances in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation and Future Climate Projection

XIONG Yating1,2, DONG Guangtao1,2*   

  1. (1. Key Laboratory of Cities’ Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China; 2. Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China)
  • Contact: DONG Guangtao, Professor of senior engineering, research areas include regional climate model research, development and application. E-mail: gtdong@163.com
  • About author:XIONG Yating, Engineer, research areas include climate change modeling, assessment and future projections.E-mail: 1933900634@qq.com
摘要:伴随着近年来高性能计算资源的快速提高,模式的水平分辨率逐渐精细化。对流允许尺 度(分辨率为4 km及以上)模式已成为当前区域气候模式发展和应用的主要方向之一。通过文献 调研对对流允许尺度区域气候模式的4 种建模方式、相比于传统分辨率区域气候模式的增值能力 以及未来气候预估进行了回顾和总结。对流允许尺度区域气候模式无需使用对流参数化方案就 可以显式表示深对流过程,在一定程度上改善了模式对复杂地形和地表强迫的表现能力。对流允 许尺度区域气候模式在模拟降水特征(降水日变化、持续时间、次日尺度降水强度、短时强降水强 度), 积雪特征(雪深、覆盖率),中尺度对流系统特征(数量、周期)、热带气旋特征(强度、路径),城 市热岛形态等方面存在显著增值能力。目前,对流允许尺度区域气候模式仍然存在着诸多挑战和 不确定性,今后可利用更高分辨率数据集,改进的云微物理过程和边界层参数化方案以及更高性 能计算资源,进一步提高对流允许尺度区域气候模拟和应用能力。
With the rapid improvement of high-performance computational resources recently, the horizontal resolution of models is gradually refined. Convection-permitting (≤4 km) models (CPMs) have become one of the main directions in the development and application of regional climate models. This paper reviewed four CPMs modeling methods, added value of CPMs compared to regional climate models with traditional resolution, and future climate projections based on a comprehensive literature review. CPMs can explicitly represent deep convection processes without using convective parameterization schemes, which significantly improves the ability to represent complex topography and surface forcing. CPMs have added value in simulating characteristics of precipitation (precipitation diurnal cycle, duration, precipitation intensity at subdaily scale, intensity of extreme precipitation with short duration), characteristics of snow (snow depth, coverage), characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (number, duration), characteristics of tropical cyclone (intensity, track), patterns of urban heat island and effects of urbanization on precipitation. There are still some challenges and uncertainties in CPMs, and in the future, higher-resolution datasets, improved cloud microphysical processes and boundary layer parameterization schemes, higher-performance computational resources can be used to further improve the ability of convection permitting regional climate simulation and application.

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[1] 熊雅婷, 董广涛. 对流允许尺度区域气候模拟和未来预估的最新进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2024, 39(6): 576-588.
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[3] 胡娅敏,丁一汇. 东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(9): 956-964.
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