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地球科学进展  2017, Vol. 32 Issue (1): 44-55    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.01.0044
综述与评述     
基于数值天气模式及其模式输出的闪电预报研究进展
王昊亮1, 刘玉宝2, 3*, *, 赵天良1, 郭凤霞1, 冯双磊2, 王勃2
1.气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京信息工程大学,江苏 南京 210044;
2.新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室,中国电力科学研究院,北京 100085;
3.应用研究实验室,美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR), Boulder,Colorado,USA 80307
Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs
Wang Haoliang1, Liu Yubao2, 3, *, Zhao Tianliang1, Guo Fengxia1, Feng Shuanglei2, Wang Bo2
1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2.State Key Laboratory of Control and Operation of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China;
3.Research Application Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, America
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摘要: 鉴于闪电对人类生命、设备安全的威胁、对强对流天气的指示作用及其在大气化学反应链中的重要角色,国内外大量研究人员在中尺度数值天气模式、全球气候模式中开展了闪电预报的研究工作。在数值天气模式中,闪电预报方法可以分为3种:基于闪电活动发生时的天气背景场统计关系的闪电数值诊断预报;依据云动力、微物理场与起电活动的关系建立闪电率参数化方案;在数值天气模式中耦合详细的起电、放电参数化方案。详细综述了这3种预报方法的研究进展,总结了它们各自的特点,并且对现存的难点问题及未来的发展方向进行了探讨。
关键词: 强对流天气大气化学模式闪电参数化方案数值天气模式闪电预报    
Abstract: Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.
Key words: Numerical weather model    Lightning parameterization scheme    Atmospheric chemistry model.    Sever convective weather    Lightning forecast
收稿日期: 2016-08-13 出版日期: 2017-01-10
ZTFLH:  P457  
基金资助: *国家电网公司科学技术项目“基于集合四维资料同化的电力气象多尺度数值预报技术研究及应用”(编号:SGTYHT/14-JS-188); 江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生科研创新计划项目“基于中尺度数值天气模式的闪电资料同化技术”(编号:KYLX16_0939)资助.
通讯作者: 刘玉宝(1963-),男,江苏宿迁人,教授,主要从事云尺度数值天气预报、灾害性天气过程、电力气象、台风、业务气象预报系统的研究.E-mail:yliu@ucar.edu   
作者简介: 王昊亮(1989-),男,青海平安人,博士研究生,主要从事闪电活动数值模拟的研究.E-mail:whl198969@163.com
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引用本文:

王昊亮, 刘玉宝, 赵天良, 郭凤霞, 冯双磊, 王勃. 基于数值天气模式及其模式输出的闪电预报研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 44-55.

Wang Haoliang, Liu Yubao, Zhao Tianliang, Guo Fengxia, Feng Shuanglei, Wang Bo. Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs. Advances in Earth Science, 2017, 32(1): 44-55.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.01.0044        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2017/V32/I1/44

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