基于副热带高压异常活动个例的动力模型重构与变异特性剖析

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.11.1250

针对1998年夏季造成我国严重洪涝灾害的副热带高压异常活动, 基于动力系统重构思想和遗传算法, 从1998年观测资料时间序列中反演重构了副热带高压活动的非线性动力模型, 并结合天气实况进行了副热带高压活动变异的动力特性分析。结果表明, 针对副热带高压异常个例实际观测资料反演重构的副热带高压活动的非线性动力模型, 可客观描述副热带高压活动(特别是异常活动)特征并予以合理的机理解释。进一步的分析讨论表明, 随着强迫参数的逐渐增加, 副热带高压动力系统将会发生平衡态的分岔、突变, 平衡态的上述变化与实际天气过程中的副热带高压北跳、南落以及副热带高压双脊线现象有很好的对应关联, 并可对其进行合理的机理解释, 进而为副热带高压等难以准确构建解析模型的复杂天气系统的机理分析和动力特性讨论提供参考。

关键词: 副热带高压, 遗传算法, 动力模型重构, 分岔突变

Aiming at the abnormal activity of West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) inducing the serious flood disaster in 1998, and considering the complex seasonal activity of WPSH in summer, based on the actual geopotential height field time series observational data in 1998, a non-linear dynamic model of WPSH was reconstructed by using the idea of dynamic system retrieval and genetic algorithms. Combined with the synchronous actual weather process, the corresponding dynamic characteristics and variation mechanism of WPSH, such as the equilibrium state destabilization and bifurcation of the WPSH system, were analyzed and discussed. The research showed that due to the advantages of global optimization and parallel calculation of GA, a nonlinear dynamic model could be reasonably and quickly reconstructed, and the reconstructed nonlinear dynamic model of WPSH derived from the actual abnormal case data could be used for describing objectively and explaining reasonably the basic characteristics and the abnormal activity process of WPSH. The dynamic discussion showed that the configuration and diversification of WPSH system equilibriums, such as bifurcation, catastrophe had a good matching with the actual medium short period abnormal activity of WPSH, such as northward jumping and southward droping, as well as double-ridge line pattern. The modality of WPSH geopotential height field induced by multi-equilibriums destabilization was more complex than that of by single-equilibriums bifurcation, and their exhibition patterns were more different. With the forcing parameters increaseing, closing with and exceeding critical value, the WPSH system equilibrium state destabilization or bifurcation would occur. Especially, when the equilibrium state jump/drop from low/high to the high/low value, corresponding WPSH system behaved as a leap northward /fall southward, moreover, when the stable equilibriums state from 1 to 2, corresponds with the pattern of “double-ridges” phenomenon of WPSH, contrariwise, “double-ridges” phenomenon would disappear. A meaningful technique route was provided to the mechanism research and dynamic characteristic discussion for the complex weather system of hardly modeling such as WPSH.

Key words: Subtropical high, Genetic algorithms, Dynamic model reconstruction, Bifurcation and Catastrophe.

中图分类号:

P433

Fig.1 The flow chart of subtropical high dynamic modeling and mechanism research

图2 1998年夏半年500 hPa位势高度场EOF分解的前三个空间模态及相应的时间系数序列

Fig.2 The EOF spatial modes and corresponding time coefficients series of 500 hPa geopotential height field in summer of 1998

图3 EOF时间系数的(0, 0, 0)和(13191, -151, -1629)平衡态解对应的EOF重组500 hPa位势场

Fig. 3 The EOF reconstructed 500 hPa geopotential height field corresponding of EOF time coefficient equilibrium state

图4 1998年夏季副高活动态势 (a)副高脊线指数;(b)副高东西位置指数

Fig.4 The activity trends of subtropical high in summer of 1998 (a)Ridge line (above);(b)Zonal position (below) index of WPSH

图5 副高位势场平衡态解(纵轴：无量纲参数)随外参数 a₁₂(横轴：无量纲参数)的分布

Fig.5 The pattern of subtropical high equilibrium state(Ordinate) abrupt with the parameter a12(Abscissa)

图6 位势场分岔突变图

Fig.6 The pattern of geopotential height field bifurcation.

图7 副高位势场平衡态(纵轴：无量纲参数)随外参数 b₁₂(横轴：无量纲参数)的分布

Fig.7 The pattern of subtropical high equilibrium state(Ordinate)abrupt with the parameter b12(Abscissa)

图8 位势场分岔突变图突变前的2个稳定平衡态(a)、(b)及其副高系统迭加(c);突变后副高位势场稳定平衡态(d)

Fig.8 The pattern of geopotential height field bifurcation The stable equilibrium state before jump(a, b) and after jump(d) and its superposition with subtropical high(c)

图9 副高位势场平衡态(纵轴：无量纲参数)随外参数 b ₁₃(横轴：无量纲参数)的分布

Fig.9 The pattern of subtropical high equilibrium state(Ordinate)abrupt with the parameter b13(Abscissa)

图10 位势场分岔突变图

Fig.10 The pattern of geopotential height field bifurcation The stable equilibrium state before jump(a) and after jump(b, c) and its superposition with subtropical high(d)

图11 副高位势场平衡态(纵轴：无量纲参数)随外参数 c ₁₃(横轴：无量纲参数)的分布

Fig.11 The pattern of subtropical high equilibrium state(Ordinate)abrupt with the parameter c13(Abscissa)

图12 位势场分岔突变图突变前稳定平衡态(a)与第一次分岔后的稳定平衡态(b)和第二次分岔后的平衡态解(c)

Fig.12 The pattern of geopotential height field bifurcation The stable equilibrium state before jump(a) and its first bifurcation (b) and the second bifurcation(c)

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摘要

Dynamic Model Re-construction and Corresponding Abnormal Characteristics Anatomy of Subtropical High based on Actual DataTime SeriesSamples