北极海冰消融及其对欧亚冬季低温影响的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.08.0913

21世纪以来北极气候系统正在发生着剧烈变化。北极海冰史无前例的急剧消融是其中最重要的指示和衡量标志。北极海冰的急剧消融与北极气温升高紧密联系, 在近年来欧亚大陆频发的冬季低温事件中也扮演着关键角色。首先介绍了北极海冰的季节特征及近年来的消融现状, 并从动力学和热力学2个方面总结了海冰急剧消融的可能原因。阐述了北极增温的季节特点及其与北极海冰消融的关系。分析了北极海冰消融与欧亚大陆冷冬频发的联系及其可能机理。基于对以上研究进展的总结, 提出了该研究领域尚需解决的几个问题, 为相关研究提供参考。

关键词: 北极增幅, 大气环流异常, 欧亚冷冬

The Arctic climate system has been changing dramatically since the 21st century, of which the most important indicator is the unprecedented declining of the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI). The low ASI is not only closely related with Arctic amplification, but also plays a central role in the frequent cold Eurasian winters. In this paper, the seasonal feature of ASI and the current situation are introduced, and the possible reasons for the rapid shrinking of ASI are analyzed both dynamically and thermodynamically. Furthermore, the seasonal feature of the Arctic warming and its connection with ASI declining are discussed. The impact of the ASI declining on the atmospheric circulation in the northern winter hemisphere is summarized. The relationship between the ASI declining and increased occurrence of cold winters in Eurasia, as well as the potential mechanisms, are investigated. Lastly, this study proposes several issues that remain to be solved in this area.

Key words: Arctic amplification, Atmospheric circulation anomaly, Cold Eurasian winters.

中图分类号:

P731.15

图1 北极（66.5°N以北）海冰密集度线性趋势（1979—2011）的年循环 ^{[

11
]}。长柱代表北极海冰密集度的年循环（1979—2011）, 单位为%。实线为哈德莱中心海冰密集度的变化趋势（1979—2011）, 单位为%/10年, 其中标记圆圈的月份通过了95%的置信度水平

Fig.1 Annual cycle of Arctic (north of 66.5°N) sea ice concentration trends, 1979—2011 The gray bars show the annual cycle of mean sea ice concentration (%).Trends (% per decade) are shown by month and averaged from Hadley Centre sea ice data north of 66.5°N (solid line). Dots show trends that are statistically significant at the 95% level or better.

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Arctic Sea Ice Declining and Its Impact on the Cold Eurasian Winters: A Review