地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.02.0147

地球科学进展 ›› 1999, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 147 -152. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.02.0147

地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向

张秋文,张培震

中国地震局地质研究所,北京 100029

收稿日期:1998-06-22 修回日期:1998-09-15 出版日期:1999-04-01
通讯作者: 张秋文,男,1968年7月生,助理研究员,研究方向为地震地质、水库诱发地震和GIS应用等。
基金资助:
中国地震局“九五”重点项目“重点监视防御区地震危险性定量评估方法与震级上限的确定原则”(95-04-10-07)部分成果。

PROGRESS AND PROSPECT IN THE STUDIES ON LONG AND MEDIUM-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

ZHANG Qiuwen, ZHANG Peizhen

Institute ofGeology,Seismological Bureau ofChina,Beijing 100029,China

Received:1998-06-22 Revised:1998-09-15 Online:1999-04-01 Published:1999-04-01

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综述了地震中长期预测的研究历史和发展现状、存在问题及发展方向。地震中长期预测研究大体可以划分为确定性预测研究和概率性预测研究两个主要发展阶段。已有的预测模型和方法在地震复发模式、不确定性分析、断裂之间的相互作用、单一学科面临的资料缺乏等方面存在许多问题。今后一个时期内,地震中长期预测研究的主要发展方向为:建立地震复发模式、建立大陆板内地震复发间隔的通用概率分布模型、活动断裂定量研究资料的应用、不确定性分析、断裂之间的相互作用及其对地震危险性分析的影响以及多学科、多手段的综合运用等。

关键词: 地震中长期预测, 地震复发模式, 断裂之间的相互作用, 不确定性分析, 活动断裂定量研究

The progress, problem and prospect of long and medium-term earthquake prediction research are outlined. The research history can be divided into two stages: definitive prediction and probability prediction. There are many problems in the existing models and methods such as earthquake recurrence model, analysis of non-definition, interaction between faults and short of information. So, in the future, the main research fields of long and medium-term earthquake prediction are as follows:①Establish earthquake recurrence model,②Establish a generic recurrence interval distribution model appropriate for intraplate earthquake,③Application of the quantitative research date of active fault,④Analysis of non-definition,⑤Interaction between faults and its effects, and⑥Application of multidisciplinary approach.

Key words: Long and medium-term earthquake prediction, Earthquake recurrence model, Interaction between faults, Quantitative research of active fault.

中图分类号:

P315·
2

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