BCC_CSM1.1气候模式对全球海表温度年代际变化的回报能力评估

doi:10.11867/j. issn. 1001-8166.2017.04.0396

地球科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 396 -408. doi: 10.11867/j. issn. 1001-8166.2017.04.0396

韩振宇 ¹(

), 吴波 ², 辛晓歌 ¹

1.中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
2.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029

收稿日期:2016-10-17 修回日期:2016-12-29 出版日期:2017-04-20
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012);中国气象局LCS气候研究开放课题青年基金2016年度资助项目“BCC_CSM1.1模式对中国近期气候的预测能力研究”资助

Decadal Prediction Skill of the Global Sea Surface Temperature in the BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model

Zhenyu Han ¹( ), Bo Wu ², Xiaoge Xin ¹

1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2016-10-17 Revised:2016-12-29 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
About author:
First author:Han Zhenyu(1987-),male,Yuanping City,Shanxi Province,Associate professor. Research areas include climate modelling, East Asian climate change and climate variability.E-mail:hanzy@cma.gov.cn
Supported by:
Foundation item:Project supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CAMS and CESM”(No.GYHY201506012);The LCS Open Funds for Young Scholars (2016) “Study on near-term climate prediction in China by BCC_CSM1.1 model”

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通过与观测资料和20世纪历史气候模拟试验结果(NoINT)的对比分析,评估了BCC_CSM1.1年代际预测试验(INT)中对全球海表温度(SST)年代际变化的回报能力。分析结果显示:①INT试验模拟的全球平均SST增暖趋势比NoINT的更加接近观测;②其在热带大西洋、热带西太平洋和热带印度洋有较高的预测技巧;③对于太平洋年代际振荡2个关键区——北太平洋和热带中东太平洋,模式的预测技巧较低,且海洋初始化的作用也很小;④在热带南印度洋,INT的预测技巧普遍高于NoINT,在提前3~6年和4~7年时技巧最高。这些结论与基于其他模式得到的已有研究结果类似,但是BCC模式对北大西洋,特别是其副极地区域的预测技巧明显低于其他模式。BCC模式无法合理模拟出北大西洋SST与热盐环流间的交替变化规律,可能是其预测技巧偏低的原因。

关键词: 年代际预测, BCC_CSM1.1, 全球海表温度, 热盐环流

This study assesses retrospective decadal prediction skill of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in initialized climate prediction experiments (INT) with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1). Ensemble forecasts were evaluated using observations, and compared to an ensemble of uninitialized simulations (NoINT). The results show as follows: ①The warming trend of global mean SST simulated by the INT runs is closer to the observation than that in the NoINT runs.②The INT runs show high SST prediction skills over broad regions of tropical Atlantic, western tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Oceans. ③ In the North Pacific and the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, the prediction skills are very weak, and there are few improvements coming from the initialization in the INT runs. ④ In the southern Indian Ocean, the prediction skills of the INT runs are significantly larger than that of the NoINT runs, with the maximum skill at the 3~6 and 4~7 years lead time. The above-mentioned conclusions are similar to the results of other climate models. However, the prediction skill in the North Atlantic Ocean is much lower than that of other models, especially in the subpolar region. The low skills in the Atlantic Ocean may be attributed to the misrepresentation of the lead-lag relationship between the Atlantic meridional heat transport and the SST in the BCC_CSM1.1.

Key words: Decadal prediction, BCC_CSM1.1, Global sea surface temperature, Thermohaline circulation.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 全球平均SST的模拟误差
(a)INT(红色)和NoINT(蓝色)试验中各起报时间合成序列的平均误差,以及INT试验的误差统计分布的盒须图;(a)中虚线表示单样本试验结果,实线表示样本集合结果;(b)INT试验中各起报时间的合成序列(如lead 1a表示提前1年起报)

Fig.1 Biases on global averaged SST
(a) Mean biases and boxplots along the forecast lead time from the INT (red) and NoINT (blue) runs, the dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means); (b) Series of the biases from the INT runs over different forecast lead time (“lead 1 a” means that the lead time is one year)

图2 SST年代际时间尺度变率与总变率的比值
比值计算采用1870—2005年的数据,NoINT的比值是3组样本分别计算比值后的平均,而不是基于样本集合后的SST;方框所示区域分别是副极地大西洋、热带大西洋、北太平洋、热带中太平洋、热带南印度洋

Fig.2 Ratio of the decadal time-scale variance to the total variance in SST
The calculation is based on the time series of 1870-2005; The ratio in the NoINT SST is the average of three variance ratios,not the variance ratio of the average of the ensemble members. Boxes correspond to the subpolar Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic, the North Pacific, the central tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean

图3 INT试验对历史SST回报技巧的空间分布
(a)INT回报与观测相关系数;(b)INT回报的RMSSS(乘以100)评分;(c)相对于观测,INT试验的RMSE与NoINT的RMSE的比值。回报技巧全部基于提前6~9年的回报序列计算,相关系数0.32表示通过95%显著性检验

Fig.3 Spatial patterns of the hindcast skills of the SST predicted by the INT runs
(a) Correlation skills and (b) RMSSS (multiplied by 100) of the ensemble mean of the INT runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 6~9;(c) Ratio of RMSE between the ensemble mean of the INT runs and that of the NoINT runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 6~9. Correlation coefficient of 0.32 represents passing the 95% significance level

图4 INT试验对全球平均SST的回报技巧
(a)提前2~5年回报的全球平均SST距平随时间的演变(℃);(b)同(a),但基于提前6~9年回报结果;(c)INT和NoINT与观测的时间相关系数随预测时效的变化;(d)相对于观测,INT和NoINT的RMSE随预测时效的变化;红线为INT试验结果,蓝线为NoINT试验结果,黑线为观测,图中虚线为单样本试验结果,实线为样本集合结果。(a),(b)中右下角数字表示各序列的线性趋势(℃/decade),箭头指示4次火山喷发的年份

Fig.4 Hindcast skills of the global averaged SST predicted by the INT runs
(a) Time series of the global averaged SST anomalies predicted by the ensemble mean of the INT (NoINT) runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 2~5 and corresponding observational reference (℃); (b) As in (a) but for hindcast years 6~9;(c) Correlations between the model runs and the observational references along the forecast time for 4-year averages;(d) RMSE of the model runs along the forecast time for 4-year averages. The red (blue) lines denote INT (NoINT) runs. The black lines denote the observation. The dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means). In (a),(b), the numbers at the bottom-right corner denote the linear trend of the time series (℃/decade), and arrows indicate the volcanic eruption years

图5 INT试验对副极地大西洋和热带大西洋平均SST的回报技巧
(a)提前2~5年回报的副极地大西洋地区平均SST距平随时间的演变(℃);(b)同(a),但基于提前6~9年回报结果;(c)INT和NoINT与观测的时间相关系数随预测时效的变化;(d)相对于观测,INT和NoINT的RMSE随预测时效的变化。红线为INT试验结果,蓝线为NoINT试验结果,黑线为观测,图中虚线为单样本试验结果,实线为样本集合结果;(e)~(h)同图(a)~(d),但是热带大西洋;(i),(j)同图(a),(b),但是AMO指数

Fig.5 Hindcast skills of the SST averaged over the subpolar Atlantic and the tropical Atlantic Ocean predicted by the INT runs
(a) Time series of the averaged SST anomalies over the subpolar Atlantic Ocean predicted by the ensemble mean of the INT (NoINT) runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 2~5 and corresponding observational reference (℃); (b) As in (a) but for hindcast years 6~9;(c) Correlations between the model runs and the observational references along the forecast time for 4-year averages;(d) RMSE of the model runs along the forecast time for 4-year averages. The red (blue) lines denote INT (NoINT) runs. The black lines denote the observation. The dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means); (e)~(h) same as (a)~(d), but for the tropical Atlantic Ocean; (i),(j) same as (a), (b), but for the AMO index

图6 大西洋经向热输送与副极地大西洋SST的超前滞后相关
(a)SODA;(b)NoINT试验结果;(c)INT试验提前2~5年预测结果;(d)INT试验提前1年预测结果,相关系数0.32和0.42分别表示通过95%和99%显著性检验

Fig.6 Lead-lag correlation between the Atlantic MHT and the SST averaged over the subpolar Atlantic at each latitude
(a) SODA; (b) NoINT;(c) INT runs over the hindcast years 2~5;(d) INT runs over the hindcast year 1,correlation coefficient of 0.32 and 0.42 represent passing the 95% and 99% significance level respectively

图7 INT试验对北太平洋和热带中东太平洋平均SST的回报技巧
(a)提前2~5年回报的北太平洋地区平均SST距平随时间的演变(℃);(b)同(a),但基于提前6~9年回报结果;(c)INT和NoINT与观测的时间相关系数随预测时效的变化;(d)相对于观测,INT和NoINT的RMSE随预测时效的变化;红线为INT试验结果,蓝线为NoINT试验结果,黑线为观测,图中虚线为单样本试验结果,实线为样本集合结果;(e)~(h)同图(a)~(d),但是热带中东太平洋

Fig.7 Hindcast skills of the SST averaged over the North Pacific and the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean predicted by the INT runs
(a) Time series of the averaged SST anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean predicted by the ensemble mean of the INT (NoINT) runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 2~5 and corresponding observational reference (℃); (b) as in (a) but for hindcast years 6~9; (c) Correlations between the model runs and the observational references along the forecast time for 4-year averages; (d) RMSE of the model runs along the forecast time for 4-year averages; The red (blue) lines denote INT (NoINT) runs; The black lines denote the observation; The dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means); (e)~(h) same as (a)~(d), but for the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean

图8 INT试验对热带南印度洋平均SST的回报技巧
(a)提前2~5年回报的热带南印度洋地区平均SST距平随时间的演变(℃);(b)同(a),但基于提前6~9年回报结果;(c)INT和NoINT与观测的时间相关系数随预测时效的变化;(d)相对于观测,INT和NoINT的RMSE随预测时效的变化;红线为INT试验结果,蓝线为NoINT试验结果,黑线为观测,图中虚线为单样本试验结果,实线为样本集合结果

Fig.8 Hindcast skills of the SST averaged over the southern tropical Indian Ocean predicted by the INT runs
(a) Time series of the averaged SST anomalies over the southern tropical Indian Ocean predicted by the ensemble mean of the INT (NoINT) runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 2~5 and corresponding observational reference (℃); (b) as in (a) but for hindcast years 6~9;(c) Correlations between the model runs and the observational references along the forecast time for 4-year averages; (d) RMSE of the model runs along the forecast time for 4-year averages; The red (blue) lines denote INT (NoINT) runs; The black lines denote the observation; The dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means)

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