黄存瑞
, 王琼
Huang Cunrui, Wang Qiong
中图分类号: P467
收稿日期: 2018-09-11
修回日期: 2018-10-11
网络出版日期: 2018-11-20
版权声明: 2018 地球科学进展 编辑部
基金资助:
作者简介:
First author:Huang Cunrui(1979-), male, Liu'an City, Anhui Province, Professor. Research areas include climate change and human health. E-mail: huangcr@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:黄存瑞(1979-),男,安徽六安人,教授,主要从事气候变化与健康研究.E-mail:huangcr@mail.sysu.edu.cn
展开
摘要
气候变化是人类社会在21世纪面临的最严峻挑战之一。由于气候变化导致的地表平均温度升高、降水规律改变,以及极端事件的发生频率和强度增加,正在严重威胁人类的生命与健康。如何妥善应对全球增暖导致的健康风险,是迫切需要解决的重要科学问题。国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项部署的研究任务“全球增暖导致区域健康风险及早期信号捕捉研究”于2018年5月正式获批立项,将通过从基础研究到应用示范的全链条设计,集成公共卫生、医学、气象科学、灾害管理等多学科交叉融合优势,开展气候变化健康风险评估、早期信号捕捉及应对策略研究。主要研究内容包括:①气候变化对人群健康的影响及区域分异规律;②气候变化或极端事件与健康关系的机理研究;③导致区域健康风险的气候系统异常早期信号捕捉;④气候变化健康风险综合评估和适应策略。希望通过卫生与气象部门的紧密合作、科研与业务单位相结合的方式,研究成果为国家和地方应对气候变化的健康风险提供科技支撑。
关键词：
Abstract
Climate change is considered as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The increasing adverse health effects of climate change has been a public concern worldwide. In order to develop the specific health response strategies, a key research project, "Climate change and human health: Risk assessments, early signals and response strategies", was approved by the National Key R & D Program of China in May 2018. This project will integrate researchers from multidisciplinary background, such as public health, medicine, meteorological sciences, disaster management, to address the following scientific questions: ①The impact of climate change on population health and its regional heterogeneity; ②The underlying mechanisms and pathways of how climate change and extreme events impact on health; ③Capture of the early signals of climate system anomalies which may lead to regional health risks; ④The comprehensive health risk assessments and development of coping strategies for tackling climate change. This project will improve our understanding of climate change and health and help policy maker to develop national and local responses to climate change in China.
Keywords：
全球变化已经并将持续影响着人类的生存和发展,成为当今世界各国和社会各界关注的重大政治、经济和外交问题。其中,全球性的气候变化被认为是人类社会在21世纪所要面临的最严峻挑战之一。由于气候变化导致的地表平均温度升高、海平面上升、降水规律改变以及极端天气事件发生频率和强度的增加[1],正在严重威胁人类的生命与健康[2,3,4,5,6,7,8]。如何妥善应对气候变化导致的区域健康风险,是需要迫切解决的重要科学问题。
许多发达国家正在通过发展有效的气候服务,以协助卫生部门做出科学决策应对气候变化和极端事件,从而减少气候灾害对健康造成的负面影响[9,10]。中国地处季风气候区,地域辽阔、环境差异大,社会经济发展不平衡,气候变化导致的健康风险更加突出,已成为我国重要的公共卫生问题[11,12,13,14,15]。目前,尽管我国已经开展了大量气候变化与健康方面的研究[16,17,18,19,20,21],但仍然存在研究内容较为局限,未能深入分析气候变化或极端事件导致健康风险的实际过程和作用机理,尚不明确未来气候变化导致的不同区域健康风险发生趋势,以及缺乏提前预测和管理气候有关健康风险的能力等问题。
为大幅度提升我国气候变化健康风险的应对能力,取得国际学术界公认的重大成果,同时为国家参与全球气候治理及国际气候谈判提供科学支撑,按照《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006—2020年)》和《国家应对气候变化规划(2014—2020年)》部署,科技部、教育部、中国科学院和气象局等部门组织专家编制了国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项实施方案。2018年,“全球变化及应对”重点专项实施方案部署了5个方面12个方向的研究任务,并在第4方面“全球变化影响与风险评估”中提出了“全球增暖导致区域健康风险评估及早期信号捕捉研究”的任务方向[22]。
目前,该研究任务由中山大学公共卫生学院作为项目牵头单位,项目名称为“气候变化健康风险评估、早期信号捕捉及应对策略研究”,项目参与单位还包括中国科学院大气物理研究所、国家卫生健康委员会统计信息中心、广东省疾病预防控制中心、上海市气候中心和广东省气候中心。本文主要从研究目标、研究内容、研究创新及预期效益等方面,简要介绍该项目的基本情况。
通过系统分析全国范围内由于气候变化与极端事件造成的人群健康风险,识别气候变化相关的重点健康问题和敏感区域,明确气候变化健康效应在时间和空间上的分布特征及变化规律;根据我国典型区域气候变化造成的主要健康问题,阐明气候变化或极端事件导致健康风险机理;明晰引起区域健康风险的气候系统异常及其早期先兆信号的可预报性,建立关键气候系统异常特征判识指标和早期先兆信号监测预测模型;构建区域气候变化健康风险综合评估模型,基于不同温室气体排放情景评估全国范围及典型区域、典型城市的健康风险,开发早期预警系统并进行应用示范,为有效应对气候变化提供科技支撑。
为实现研究目标,本项目按照研究内容、科学与技术难题对任务进行了分解,共设置4个课题,包括:①气候变化对人群健康的影响及区域分异规律;②气候变化或极端事件与健康关系的机理研究;③导致区域健康风险的气候系统异常早期信号捕捉;④气候变化健康风险综合评估和适应策略。4个课题的研究目标和内容紧密联系,但又相互独立。课题之间的逻辑关系如图1所示。
“气候变化对人群健康的影响及区域分异规律” 课题作为整个项目的基础工作,将为“气候变化或极端事件与健康关系的机理研究” 课题明确典型气候变化事件所引起的区域主要的健康问题,为“导致区域健康风险的气候系统异常早期信号捕捉”课题发现具有健康风险的不利气候条件及其相关信号,产出的多种健康结局统计关联模型可以为“气候变化健康风险综合评估和适应策略”课题提供支撑。课题2既是对课题1研究内容的具体深入,又是对课题1发现的关联关系进行检验与反馈,也为课题4开展区域气候变化健康风险综合评估和早期预警系统奠定基础。课题3主要基于课题1提供的气候变化与极端事件导致区域健康风险的证据开展研究,能够为课题4的气候系统异常早期信号监测预测系统提供技术支持。课题4在几个研究的基础上,致力于构建区域气候变化健康风险综合评估模型,开发早期预警系统并进行应用示范,使整个项目的研究成果能转化为实际应用,以满足国家应对气候变化和重大疾病防控的战略需求。同时,提出适用于我国健康领域的气候变化应对策略和政策建议。
系统分析全国范围内气候变化与极端事件,包括基于大尺度气候背景场的变化,提取气候变化与变异、极端温度事件(高温热浪、低温寒潮、温度变异)和极端降水事件(洪涝、干旱、持续降雨)的发生情况。以死亡、发病、传染病、脆弱人群健康问题(如不良孕产结局、职业健康与安全、精神心理健康)等为结局,综合运用环境流行病学时空分析方法和地理空间分异性统计理论,系统研究气候变化与极端事件对人群健康的影响程度及范围,分析气候变化背景下极端气温和降水等气候环境要素影响健康的强度阈值及高风险暴露时段,从而识别气候敏感性疾病类型和脆弱人群特征。最后,明确气候变化健康效应的高危区域、时空分布及演变特征,阐明区域分异规律及影响因素,绘制健康风险图集。
基于气候变化或极端事件引起的重点健康问题,建立典型气候变化或极端事件与健康关系模型,包括基于城市街道尺度的高温热浪与心脑血管疾病死亡风险的脆弱性模型、气温和湿度变异对哮喘发生与发展的作用因素模型、极端气温诱发早产的机制路径模型、气候变暖引起登革热流行的人与蚊媒耦合传播动力学模型,以及洪涝导致感染性腹泻的社会驱动过程模型。从气候变化或极端事件影响健康的易感人群、影响因素、生物学机制、传播途径和社会过程等方面阐明气候变化导致区域健康风险的机理。
分析导致区域健康风险的极端降水和温度事件所对应的关键气候系统异常特征并给出清单,建立关键气候系统异常特征指标。研究关键气候系统异常的来源和演变过程,基于数值预测和动力统计分析相结合的方法,揭示这些气候系统异常的大气环流特征、演变规律和海洋、陆面等外部驱动因子,判识其早期先兆信号。同时,评估导致健康风险的区域气候系统异常早期信号的可预报性,研发早期先兆信号的识别方法和捕捉技术。
首先建立区域气候变化健康风险的综合评估指标体系,基于此构建集多气候影响因子、多作用途径、多健康结局、多时空尺度的气候变化健康风险综合评估模型。利用气候参数评估方法,选择适用于中国区域的全球气候模式,通过动力和统计降尺度方法,建立高分辨率的全国范围和典型区域未来气候变化情景数据集,针对典型区域和城市开展不同温室气体排放情景下的健康风险预估,制作我国区域气候变化健康风险等级图。最后建立气候敏感性疾病早期预警系统应用示范区(城市),并撰写针对健康领域的气候变化应对策略咨询报告和政策和建议。
为了更充分地说明该项目的研究内容,将通过技术路线图(图2)展示。
通过从基础研究到应用示范的全链条设计,集成了公共卫生、医学、气象科学、灾害管理等多学科交叉融合优势,在研究内容、研究方法、应用示范与成果转化方面均具有创新性。
聚焦我国气候变化敏感区域及其对应的重点健康问题,通过现场调查、疾病监测等途径建立多源数据库,充分发挥预防医学、实验科学、生物信息学等综合优势,基于影响因素与动力学耦合、宏观与微观多尺度分析,从易感人群、影响因素、生物学机制、传播途径和社会过程等方面深入探究气候变化导致区域健康风险的环节要素、相互关系及作用机理,有助于气候变化健康风险的精准防控。建立以气候变化为诱因的健康风险多因子多系统的综合评估模型,结合我国典型区域的气候变化趋势、健康风险和应对能力,制定适用于健康领域的气候变化应急响应和适应策略,具有针对性和可操作性,能满足气候变化应对的中长期要求。
目前传统的气候预测方法通常缺乏针对性,不能实现针对多种气候要素同时异常的情景和针对具有健康风险的气候异常早期信号进行捕捉。另外,驱动因子的变化对气候要素异常和极值往往具有前兆意义,但目前尚未系统建立影响区域健康风险的关键驱动因子的清单和预测模型。本研究首次从多气候要素协同影响健康风险的角度出发,专门针对不利气候条件清单,提取具有可预报性的健康风险先导信号,建立联合判识指标;并针对不同时空尺度条件下的特定健康问题,揭示气候要素异常隐含的气候动力学原因和驱动因子,结合高分辨率气候模式和统计释用技术,研发延伸期(10 天)以上尺度的健康风险气候异常预报方法。
将研究成果和关键技术集成到系统平台,选择典型地区建立区域气候敏感性疾病早期预警系统示范区,如选择上海、广州作为典型城市建立高温热浪与健康风险监测预警示范城市,建立集气候变化与健康关系模型、气候系统异常早期信号捕捉、预警服务信息发布、疾病防控干预措施为一体的气候变化健康风险预警系统;纳入上海市气象局和广东省气象局的多灾种早期预警系统平台,对接国家突发事件预警服务平台;依托广东省疾病预防控制中心成熟的疾病预防和控制手段和技术,进行气候变化健康风险应对措施的应用示范。
(1) 科学研究方面。该项目收集的全国范围气候环境、人口健康、社会经济等数据,将用于建设气候变化与健康研究共享数据库。撰写的气候变化健康效应评估研究方法指南,可以为今后有关部门或机构的深入研究提供数据基础和技术支持。研发的健康风险先兆性气候系统异常早期信号清单及捕捉技术,可以为应对气候变化提供技术支撑,为探索气候变化与健康风险的内在关联机制提供新的认识。此外,将生成中国区域空间分辨率25 km的气候变化情景数据集,可反映未来主要气候环境要素空间变化信息,节省今后此类研究的科研成本,提高研究效率。建立的气候变化健康风险综合评估模型,可为今后开展风险评估提供较好的技术手段,并为其他部门提供借鉴。基于研究发现,预期发表高质量的研究论文,以扩大我国在该研究领域的国际影响力。同时,将培养一批青年研究者、博士及硕士研究生,为我国组建一支具有国际先进水平、符合国内社会发展需求的从事气候变化与健康研究的科技创新团队。
(2) 社会经济效益方面。绘制的气候变化健康风险图集,能够有效反映气候变化有关的重点健康问题和高风险地区,为医疗卫生资源配置、风险管理和城市规划等提供有效的决策支撑信息。所建立的气候变化与健康关系机理模型,可为卫生部门和普通民众提供健康风险提示,并为开发气候敏感性疾病早期预警系统和制定精准防控措施提供科学依据。此外,建立的健康风险先兆性气候异常信号监测预测系统,有望应用到区域健康风险预测的实际业务中,满足卫生部门对健康风险的动态监测预警和服务保障能力的需求,为疾病预防控制和公共卫生管理提供更长时效的决策工具。最后,将提交我国气候变化健康影响与风险评估科学报告、咨询报告和政策建议等,建立气候敏感性疾病早期预警系统应用示范区并提交示范报告,可满足卫生、气象、灾害应急等部门应对气候变化的实际需求,为国家和地方应对气候变化提供科技支撑。
全球增暖导致气温升高、降水改变,以及极端事件发生频率和强度的增加,正在严重威胁人类健康。受国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项资助,本项目通过从基础研究到应用示范的全链条设计,集成公共卫生、医学、气象科学、灾害管理等多学科交叉融合优势,开展气候变化健康影响与风险评估及作用机理分析、气候异常早期信号捕捉及气候变化应对策略研究。将为国家和地方应对气候变化提供科技支撑,有助于提升我国气候变化健康风险评估及公共卫生应对领域的研究水平和风险管理能力,从而推进气候适应型城市建设和健康中国战略的实施。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
| [1] |
Climate change 2013: The physical science basis[M]∥Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . |
| [2] |
Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution [J].
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been...
|
| [3] |
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: A multicountry observational study [J].
Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. We analysed 746422564200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. UK Medical Research Council.
|
| [4] |
Climate change effects on human health: Projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s [J].
Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
|
| [5] |
Future population exposure to US heat extremes [J].
Extreme heat events are likely to become more frequent in the coming decades owing to climate change. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we provide a new projection of population exposure to extreme heat for the continental United States that takes into account both of these factors. Using projections from a suite of regional climate models driven by global climate models and forced with the SRES A2 scenario and a spatially explicit population projection consistent with the socioeconomic assumptions of that scenario, we project changes in exposure into the latter half of the twenty-first century. We find that US population exposure to extreme heat increases four- to sixfold over observed levels in the late twentieth century, and that changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes whereas smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of exposure varies across regions of the country.
|
| [6] |
Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York [J].
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. The authors use 16 down-scaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.
|
| [7] |
Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing [J].
Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors.
|
| [8] |
Climate change: Challenges and opportunities for global health [J]. |
| [9] |
Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, Northern Italy [J].
The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20- to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.
|
| [10] |
The lancet countdown on health and climate change: From 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health [J].
The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement,1 and the health implications of these actions. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change,2 which concluded that anthropogenic climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health, and conversely, that a comprehensive response to climate change could be he greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. The Lancet Countdown is a collaboration between 24 academic institutions and intergovernmental organisations based in every continent and with representation from a wide range of disciplines. The collaboration includes climate scientists, ecologists, economists, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport systems, geographers, mathematicians, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors. It reports annual indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement.
|
| [11] |
Information on impacts of climate change and adaptation in China [J]. |
| [12] |
Climate change and human health in China [J].
There is near unanimous scientific consensus that the world's climate is changing and most of...
|
| [13] |
Ambient air pollution, climate change, and population health in China [J].
78 China may face the worst air pollution problem in the world, and is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. 78 Sufficient evidence shows that ambient air pollutants have a wide range of adverse health effects in China. 78 Some evidence suggests that climate change poses significant health risks to the population in China. 78 Consideration of the health impact of air pollution and climate change simultaneously can help the Chinese government move forward towards sustainable development with appropriate urgency.
|
| [14] |
Human health, well-being and climate change in China[M]∥Nadin R, Opitz Stapleton S, Yinlong X, eds . |
| [15] |
Climate change, food, water and population health in China [J].
Abstract in English , Arabic , 020001¨01040208 01050206 01§020401090102020001± 01§02040205020601§01030200 01§0204020601§01010205 01010206 010901050100020001±01§0109 01¨010701±02000108 020001¤01040200 010602040209 0105020001§01040108 02080109020001±0108 0102010402080100 01§02040100020801§020701± 01§02040101020802000108 01§020401070104020001040108 0208020501040108 010601±020001§0206020701§ 0208010701040109020701§. 0208020301§0206 0204020501000204 020701°0207 01§02040100020801§020701
|
| [16] |
Ambient air pollution, temperature and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in Shanghai, China [J].
61Few studies have evaluated the effects of air pollution and temperature on OHCDs in China.61The present-day concentrations of air pollution were associated with OHCDs.61The effect of high temperatures on OHCDs was more immediate than low temperatures.61No significant effects were found for in-hospital coronary deaths.
|
| [17] |
Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China [J].
61CDC staff's perceptions of dengue fever in the face of climate change in China.61CDC staff have an awareness of climate change and its threat to diseases.61CDC staff's knowledge to deal with the challenge of climate change is limited.61Capacity of CDCs was excellent and higher levels of CDCs had better performance.61Infectious disease control strategies/measures need to be revised and developed.
|
| [18] |
Ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth in Guangzhou, China (2001-2011) [J].
Although effects of weather changes on human health have been widely reported, there is limited information regarding effects on pregnant women in developing countries. We investigated the association between maternal exposure to ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth (< 37 weeks of gestation) in Guangzhou, China. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate associations between preterm birth and average temperature during each week of gestation, with weekly temperature modeled as a time-varying exposure during four time windows: 1 week (the last week of the pregnancy), 4 weeks (the last 4 weeks of the pregnancy), late pregnancy (gestational week 20 onward), and the entire pregnancy. Information on singleton vaginal birth between 2001 and 2011 was collected. Daily meteorological data during the same period were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A total of 838,146 singleton vaginal births were included, among which 47,209 (5.6%) were preterm births. High mean temperatures during the 4 weeks, late pregnancy, and the entire pregnancy time windows were associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Compared with the median temperature (24.4°C), weekly exposures during the last 4 weeks of the pregnancy to extreme cold (7.6°C, the 1st percentile) and extreme heat (31.9°C, the 99th percentile) were associated with 17.9% (95% CI: 10.2, 26.2%) and 10.0% (95% CI: 2.9, 17.6%) increased risks of preterm birth, respectively. The association between extreme heat and preterm birth was stronger for preterm births during weeks 20–31 and 32–34 than those during weeks 35–36. These findings might have important implications in preventing preterm birth in Guangzhou as well as other areas with similar weather conditions. He JR, Liu Y, Xia XY, Ma WJ, Lin HL, Kan HD, Lu JH, Feng Q, Mo WJ, Wang P, Xia HM, Qiu X, Muglia LJ. 2016. Ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth in Guangzhou, China (2001–2011). Environ Health Perspect 124:1100–1106;68http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509778
|
| [19] |
Modeling the present and future incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease associated with ambient temperature in Mainland China [J].
There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.During 2009-2014, HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI:, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.
|
| [20] |
Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute is chemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China [J].
We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time.
|
| [21] |
Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China [J].
react-text: 116 Background: Multiple methods are employed for modelling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known on the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e. the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modelling),... /react-text react-text: 117 /react-text [Show full abstract]
|
| [22] |
|
甘公网安备62010202000687
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
