On the Influence of Stratospheric Anomalies on Tropospheric Weather Systems
Received date: 2006-01-26
Revised date: 2006-05-25
Online published: 2006-07-15
It was traditionally thought that the stratosphere has little influence on the troposphere. However, recent observational studies show that such a downward influence is significant and important. Especially, recent studies on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) greatly advanced the research in this problem. It is found that stratospheric anomalies can have important influences on tropospheric weather systems, that is, in winter negative AO anomalies in the stratosphere can trigger extremely cold weather events in the midlatitude troposphere, whereas positive stratospheric AO anomalies can lead to warm weather. It is even suggested that signals of stratospheric anomalies can be used to predict tropospheric weather in Northern-Hemisphere winter time, which can expand the time scale of weather prediction up to 3 weeks. The present paper reviews the progress in this research area, explains the physical mechanisms of stratospheric influences on tropospheric weather systems, summarizes controversial points of views, and suggests some problems for future research.
Hu Yongyun . On the Influence of Stratospheric Anomalies on Tropospheric Weather Systems[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2006 , 21(7) : 713 -720 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.07.0713
[1] Andrews D G, Holton J R, Leovy C B. Middle Atmosphere Dynamics[M]. Academic Press, 1987:489.
[2] Solomon S. Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history[J]. Review of Geophysical,1999,37: 275-316.
[3] Randel W J, Wu F. Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratosphere due to ozone depletion[J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12: 1 467-1 479.
[4] Ramaswamy V, et al. Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model simulations[J]. Review of Geophysical, 2001, 39: 71-122.
[5] Hartmann D L, Wallace J M, Limpasuvan V, et al. Can ozone depletion and greenhouse warming interact to produce rapid climate change?[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy Scienies, 2000, 97: 1 412-1 417.
[6] Thompson D W J, Solomon S. Interpretation of recent southern-hemisphere climate change[J]. Science, 2002, 296:895-898.
[7] Hu Y, Tung K K. Possible ozone induced long-term changes in planetary wave activity in late winter [J]. Journal of Climate,2003,16: 3 027-3 038.
[8] Hu Y, Tung K K, Liu J. A closer comparison of decadal atmospheric trends between Northern-Hemisphere early and late winter[J]. Journal of Climate,2005,18: 2 924-2 936.
[9] Thompson D W J, Wallace J M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields[J]. Geophysical Reseacth Letters,1998,25:1 297-1 300.
[10] Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1999,104: 30 937-30 946.
[11] Kodera K. On the origin and nature of the interannual variability of the winter stratospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1995,100:14 077-14 087.
[12] Thompson D W J, Lee S, Baldwin M P. Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/ North Atlantic Oscillation[C]∥Hurrell J W, Kushnir Y, Visbeck M, Ottersen G. The AGU Monograph on the NAO.2002.
[13] Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes[J]. Science,2001,294: 581-584.
[14] Thompson D W J, Baldwin M P, Wallace J M. Stratospheric connection to northern hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15: 1 421-1 428.
[15] Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W J, et al. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts[J]. Science, 2003, 301: 636-640.
[16] Baldwin M P, Thompson D W J, Shuckburgh E F, et al. Weather from the Stratosphere[J]. Science,2003,301: 317-318.
[17] Hu Yongyun. Possible impact of stratospheric polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate[J]. Univeritatis Pekinensis(Scientiarum Naturalium),2006,42(5):in press.[胡永云. 平流层极地臭氧损耗对对流层气候的可能影响[J]. 北京大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(5):待刊.]
[18] Charney J G, Drazin P G. Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower to the upper atmosphere[J]. Journal of Atmospheric Science,1961,66: 83-109.
[19] Holton J, Mass C. Stratospheric vacillation cycles [J]. Journal of Atmosphoric Science,1976, 33: 2 218-2 225.
[20] Quiroz R S. Tropospheric-stratospheric polar vortex breakdown of January 1977[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1977,4:151-154.
[21] Wallace J M. North Atlantic Oscillation/northern hemisphere annular mode, one phenomenon, two paradigms[J]. Royal Meteorological Society,2000,126: 791-805.
[22] Thompson D W J, Wallace J W. Regional climate impacts of the northern hemisphere annular mode[J]. Science,2001,293: 85-89.
[23] Wallace J M, Thompson D W J. Annular modes and climate prediction[J].Physics Today,2002,55: 29-33.
[24] Hartley D E, Villarin J T, Black R X, et al. A new perspective on the dynamical link between the stratosphere and troposphere[J]. Nature,1998, 391: 471-474.
[25] Black R X. Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate,2002,15: 268-277.
[26] Holton J R, Tan H C. The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb[J]. Journal of Atmospheric Science,1980, 37: 2 200-2 208.
[27] McIntyre M E. How well do we understand the dynamics of sudden stratospheric warmings[J]. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan,1982, 60: 37-64.
[28] Hu Y, Tung K K. Tropospheric and equatorial influences on planetary-wave amplitudes in the stratosphere[J]. Geophysical Research Letter,2002, 29: DOI 10.1029/2001GL013967.
[29] Chen W, Takahashi M, Graf H F. Interannual variations of stationary planetary wave activity in the northern winter troposphere and stratosphere and their relations to NAM and SST[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108: doi:10.1029/2003JD003834.
[30] Hu Y, Tung K K. Interannual and decadal variations of planetary-wave activity, stratospheric cooling, and Northern-Hemisphere annular mode[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15:1 659-1 673.
[31] Hartmann D L, Wallace J M, Limpasuvan V, et al. Can ozone depletion and greenhouse warming interact to produce rapid climate change[J]. Proceedings of the Natlional Academy Sciences,2000,97:1 412-1 417.
[32] Kushner P, Polvani L. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in a relatively simple AGCM:The role of eddies[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17: 629-639.
[33] Polvani L M, Waugh D W. Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes[J]. Journal of Climate,2004,15:3 548-3 553.
[34] Charlton A J, O'Neill A, Stephenson D B, et al. Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere[J]. Royal Meteorological Society,2003,129:3 205-3 224.
[35] Black R X, Mcdeniel B A. Diagnostic case studies of the northern annular mode[J]. Journal of Climate,2004,17:3 990-4 004.
[36] Kodera K, Kuroda H. Tropospheric and stratospheric aspects of the Arctic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letter, 2000, 27: 3 349-3 352.
/
〈 |
|
〉 |