Abstract:Cold-arid regions cover more than half of China's land area, but their climatic and environmental
conditions have long constrained agricultural development. To fully exploit the advantages of agroclimatic
resources, expand the endowment of climatic resources, and explore localized agricultural development
pathways, it is essential to scientifically understand the distribution characteristics of agroclimatic resources and
study the intrinsic traits of climatic resources in China’s cold-arid regions. Based on 4 km resolution
meteorological data from 2000 to 2020, this study constructed a Cold-Arid Synergy Index (CASI), integrating the
dual dimensions of thermal limitation (Thermal Restriction Index, TRI) and moisture stress (Hydrological Stress
Index, HSI). This index quantifies the spatial differentiation pattern of cold-arid interactive stress and analyzes
the contribution mechanisms of its dominant factors. The research found that cold-arid agroclimatic zones in
China account for 16.42% of the national land area, exhibiting a northeast-southwest belt-shaped distribution.
CASI-based zoning revealed a five-category gradient: Grade I zones (extreme stress) are primarily located on the
Tibetan Plateau; Grades II and III zones (Hexi Corridor, Inner Mongolia Plateau) form the main body of the agropastoral
ecotone; Grades IV and V zones (Northeast Plain to Central Gansu) have optimal hydrothermal matching
and are suitable for large-scale agricultural production. At the provincial scale, provinces such as Gansu and Inner
Mongolia have over 40% of their area classified as cold-arid, with CASI standard deviations reaching 0.10–0.18,
highlighting the climatic sensitivity of transition zones. LISA spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that
28.52% of the cold-arid area comprises Low-Low clusters (LL-type), representing core advantageous production
areas; 28.24% belongs to High-High clusters areas (HH-type), forming agroclimatic high-risk islands requiring
targeted enhancement of climate resilience. Dominant factor analysis revealed that aridity-dominant zones
account for 73%, while cold-dominant zones account for 27%, with the contribution of cold stress significantly
increasing with elevation. The CASI index system constructed in this study provides a novel methodology for
cold-arid agroclimatic zoning, while the zoning results offer a scientific basis for optimizing agricultural spatial
layout, enabling precision resource allocation, and developing specialized industries within cold-arid regions
under the context of climate change.