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Advances in Earth Science >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 7: 661 - 671

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.050

Predictability of Land Surface Processes: Research Progress and Prospects

  • Guodong SUN ,
  • Fei PENG ,
  • Qiujie REN ,
  • Qiyu ZHANG ,
  • Dandan YUE
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  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    2.CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing 100081, China
    3.School of Mathematics and Information Science, Zhengzhou University of Light Industry, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    4.Chongqing Key Laboratory of Numerical Model-AI Integrated Forecast and Warning for Severe Weather, Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China
    5.College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
    6.The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    7.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
SUN Guodong, research areas include predictability and land-atmosphere interaction. E-mail: sungd@mail.iap.ac.cn

Received date: 2025-04-11

  Revised date: 2025-06-12

  Online published: 2025-06-28

Supported by

the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805202);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175077)

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Abstract

Land surfaces are important components of the Earth’s system. The land surface has an important influence on the weather and climate system through processes such as energy, moisture, carbon, and nitrogen cycles, coupling, and interactions with the atmosphere. The study of numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes is a hot topic in international research. However, the numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes are subject to large uncertainties. Assessing the current level of uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes, searching for sources of uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes, and exploring ways and means to reduce the uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes fall within the scope of research on the predictability of land surface processes. This paper reviews the progress of the author's research in these three areas and discusses key scientific issues and techniques that need to be focused on in future research on the predictability of land-surface processes.

Key words： Predictability; Land surface processes; Land-air interaction; Targeted observations; Ensemble forecasts

Cite this article

Guodong SUN , Fei PENG , Qiujie REN , Qiyu ZHANG , Dandan YUE . Predictability of Land Surface Processes: Research Progress and Prospects[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2025 , 40(7) : 661 -671 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.050

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