A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer
First author:Yang Qiuming(1963-), male, Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, Professor. Research areas include weather and climate prediction.E-mail:yqm0305@263.net
Received date: 2017-05-17
Revised date: 2018-02-28
Online published: 2018-05-24
Supported by
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Study on interaction between SCGT and ISO over East Asia in summer and its application to extended-range prediction of heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of Yangtze River valley” (No.41175082);The Scientific Research Foundation of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau “Study on the real-time extended-range forecast method of low-frequency rainfall and temperature over the lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley in summer”(No.KM201805).
Copyright
Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.
Qiuming Yang . A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2018 , 33(4) : 385 -395 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0385
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