Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation

Xun Huang; Chuan Tang

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047

Advances in Earth Science >

2016 , Vol. 31 >Issue 10: 1047 - 1055

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047

Orginal Article

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation

Xun Huang ,
Chuan Tang

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1.Chongqing Survey Institute, Chongqing 401121, China
2.Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Geotechnical Engineering, Chongqing 401121, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

First author:Huang Xun(1986-), male, Guangyuan City, Sichuan Province, Ph. D. Research areas include the assessment and prediction of the geologic hazard.E-mail:huangxun198671@163.com

*Corresponding author:Tang Chuan(1961-), male, Hefei City, Anhui Province, Professor. Research areas include the geologic hazard, geomorphology and engineering geology.E-mail:tangc707@gmail.com

Received date: 2016-07-02

Revised date: 2016-09-15

Online published: 2016-10-20

Supported by

Project supported by the Special Program for Social Technology Innovation of Chongqing “Application of 3D hydrogeological modeling method on the planning and construction of the long tunnel”(No;cstc2016shmszx30021);National Science and Technology Support Program “Geohazard prevention and geoenvironment protection in the meizoseismal area”(No.2011BAK12B01)

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地球科学进展编辑部, 2016,

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Abstract

The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area.

Key words： Debris flow; Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA); FLO-2D; Vulnerability curve.

Cite this article

Xun Huang , Chuan Tang . Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2016 , 31(10) : 1047 -1055 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047

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