Orginal Article

Dynamic Model Re-construction and Corresponding Abnormal Characteristics Anatomy of Subtropical High based on Actual DataTime SeriesSamples

  • Ren Zhang ,
  • Mei Hong ,
  • Kefeng Liu ,
  • Weijun Zhu
Expand
  • 1. College of Meteorology Oceanography PLA University of Science Technology Nanjing 211101 China
    2. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Online published: 2014-11-20

Copyright

地球科学进展 编辑部, 2014, This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Abstract

Aiming at the abnormal activity of West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) inducing the serious flood disaster in 1998, and considering the complex seasonal activity of WPSH in summer, based on the actual geopotential height field time series observational data in 1998, a non-linear dynamic model of WPSH was reconstructed by using the idea of dynamic system retrieval and genetic algorithms. Combined with the synchronous actual weather process, the corresponding dynamic characteristics and variation mechanism of WPSH, such as the equilibrium state destabilization and bifurcation of the WPSH system, were analyzed and discussed. The research showed that due to the advantages of global optimization and parallel calculation of GA, a nonlinear dynamic model could be reasonably and quickly reconstructed, and the reconstructed nonlinear dynamic model of WPSH derived from the actual abnormal case data could be used for describing objectively and explaining reasonably the basic characteristics and the abnormal activity process of WPSH. The dynamic discussion showed that the configuration and diversification of WPSH system equilibriums, such as bifurcation, catastrophe had a good matching with the actual medium short period abnormal activity of WPSH, such as northward jumping and southward droping, as well as double-ridge line pattern. The modality of WPSH geopotential height field induced by multi-equilibriums destabilization was more complex than that of by single-equilibriums bifurcation, and their exhibition patterns were more different. With the forcing parameters increaseing, closing with and exceeding critical value, the WPSH system equilibrium state destabilization or bifurcation would occur. Especially, when the equilibrium state jump/drop from low/high to the high/low value, corresponding WPSH system behaved as a leap northward /fall southward, moreover, when the stable equilibriums state from 1 to 2, corresponds with the pattern of “double-ridges” phenomenon of WPSH, contrariwise, “double-ridges” phenomenon would disappear. A meaningful technique route was provided to the mechanism research and dynamic characteristic discussion for the complex weather system of hardly modeling such as WPSH.

Cite this article

Ren Zhang , Mei Hong , Kefeng Liu , Weijun Zhu . Dynamic Model Re-construction and Corresponding Abnormal Characteristics Anatomy of Subtropical High based on Actual DataTime SeriesSamples[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2014 , 29(11) : 1250 -1261 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.11.1250

References

[1] Huang Jianping, Chou Jifan, Yi Yuhong. The macrodescription of the evolution of 500 hPa monthly anomaly field[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1989, 47(4): 483-487.
[1] [黄建平, 丑纪范, 衣育红.500 hPa月平均距平场演变的宏观描述[J].气象学报, 1989, 47(4): 483-487.]
[2] Huang J, Yi Y, Wang S, et al. An analogue-dynamical long-range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1993, 119: 547-565.
[3] Huang J, Higuchi K, Shabbar A. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Nio-Southern oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1998, 25: 2707-2710.
[4] Takens F. Detecting strange attractors in fluid turbulence[J].Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 1981, 898(2): 366-381.
[5] Tian Jiwei, Hu Dunxin. Phase space retrieval technique and its application in oceanic data analysis[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1996, 18(4): 1-10.
[5] [田纪伟, 胡敦欣.相空间反演方法及其在海洋资料分析中的应用[J].海洋学报, 1996, 18(4): 1-10.]
[6] Wei Enbo, Tian Jiwei, Xu Jinshan. A new retrieval technique with hided variable and its application in oceanic data analysis[J].Science in China(Series D), 2001, 31(2): 171-176.
[6] [魏恩泊, 田纪伟, 许金山.隐含变量新反演方法及在海洋资料中的应用[J].中国科学: D辑, 2001, 31(2): 171-176.]
[7] Ma Junhai, Chen Yushu, Liu Zengrong. The nonlinear chaos model reconstruction based on actual observational data of dynamic system[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 1999, 20(11): 1128-1134.
[7] [马军海, 陈予恕, 刘曾荣.动力系统实测数据的非线性混沌模型重构[J].应用数学和力学, 1999, 20(11): 1128-1134.]
[8] Huang Jianping, Yi Yuhong. Retrieval nonlinear dynamic model with observational data[J]. Science in China(Series D), 1991, 3(3): 331-336.
[8] [黄建平, 衣育红.利用观测资料反演非线性动力模型[J].中国科学: D辑, 1991, 3(3): 331-336.]
[9] Lin Zhenshan. Nonlinear Science and Its Application in Earth Science[M].Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2003: 119-124.
[9] [林振山. 非线性科学及其在地学中的应用[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2003: 119-124.]
[10] Wang Ling. Intelligent Optimization Algorithm and Its Application[M].Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2001: 2-10.
[10] [王凌. 智能优化算法及其应用[M].北京: 清华大学出版社, 2001: 2-10.]
[11] Zhang Ren, Hong Mei. The nonlinear dynamic model retrieval of subtropical high based on EOF and GA algorithm[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2006, 27(12): 1438-1445.
[11] [张韧, 洪梅.经验正交函数与遗传算法结合副热带高压位势场非线性模型反演[J].应用数学和力学, 2006, 27(12): 1438-1445.]
[12] Hong Mei, Zhang Ren. The medium/long-range forecast of pacific subtropical high based on dynamic statistic model reconstruction[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2006, 64(6): 780-789.
[12] [洪梅, 张韧.基于动力统计模型重构的副热带高压中长期预报[J].气象学报, 2006, 64(6): 780-789.]
[13] Hong Mei, Zhang Ren. Space-time objective decomposition of vortex equations and mechanism analysis of subtropical high abnormal activities[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2009, 30(10): 1181-1188.
[13] [洪梅, 张韧.涡度方程的时空客观分解与副热带高压的突变与分岔[J].应用数学和力学, 2009, 30(10): 1181-1188.]
[14] Hong Mei, Zhang Ren, He Jinhai. The mechanism analyses of the abnormal activities and polymorphism in subtropical high based on the objective fitting of space-basis function[J].Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(10): 6871-6882.
[14] [洪梅, 张韧, 何金海.基于空间基函数客观拟合的副热带高压突变与多态的机理分析[J].物理学报, 2010, 59(10): 6871-6882.]
[15] Wang Xiaoping, Cao Liming. Genetic Algorithm—The Theory, Application and Its Software Realization[M].Xi’an: Jiaotong University PressXi’an Jiaotong University Press, 2003: 7-9.
[15] [王小平, 曹立明.遗传算法——理论、应用与软件实现[M].西安: 交通大学出版社西安交通大学出版社, 2003: 7-9.]
[16] Zhang Ren, Wang Huizan, Liu Kefeng, et al. Dynamic random city and complexity of subtropical high index based on phase space reconstruction[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2007, 30(6): 723-729.
[16] [张韧, 王辉赞, 刘科峰, 等.基于相空间重构的西太平洋副热带高压指数的动力随机性与复杂性[J].南京气象学院学报, 2007, 30(6): 723-729.]
[17] Gao Puyun. Nonlinear Dynamics: Bifurcation, Chaos and Soliton[M]. Changsha: National Defence Science and Technology University Press, 2005: 75-77.
[17] [高普云. 非线性动力学: 分叉、混沌与孤立子[M].长沙: 国防科技大学出版社, 2005: 75-77.]
[18] Huang Ronghui, Xu Yuhong, Wang Pengfei. The characteristic and mechanism discuss on special serious flood waterlogging disaster in 1998 summer[J]. Journal of Climatic and Environmental Research, 1998, 3(4): 300-313.
[18] [黄荣辉, 徐予红, 王鹏飞.1998年夏长江流域特大洪涝特征及其成因探讨[J].气候与环境研究, 1998, 3(4): 300-313.]
[19] Tao Shiyan, Ni Yunqi, Zhao Sixiong. The Research of Mechanism and Forecast for Chinese Rainstorm in 1998 Summer[M].Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2001: 19-31.
[19] [陶诗言, 倪允琪, 赵思雄.1998年夏季中国暴雨的形成机理与预报研究[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2001: 19-31.]
[20] He Jinhai, Qi Li, Zhang Ren, et al. The New Achievement and Application Research of West-pacific Subtropical High[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2010: 69-80.
[20] [何金海, 祁莉, 张韧, 等.西太平洋副热带高压研究的新进展及其应用[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2010: 69-80.]
Outlines

/