Received date: 1998-05-04
Revised date: 1998-12-15
Online published: 1999-06-01
In this paper, the author first discusses the meaning of regional natural disaster' s risk and introduces the possibility risk in detail, pointing out that risk has different meaning in insurance business and disaster study. Then the author reviews the content of risk analysis of regional natural disasters and the mathematical models of risk assessment. The risk analysis is classified into three steps, risk recognition , risk estimation, and risk assessment and the mathematical models into three types, extreme risk model, probability risk model and possibility risk model. Nextly, the possibility risk model for analyzing regional disaster risk are reviewed thoroughly. Finally, the problems to be studied further for regional natural disasters risk analysis , the regional natural disaster mechanism , the method for recognizing regional natural disaster risk, and the method of regional vulnerability analysis, are proposed.
Key words： Regional natural disaster; Risk analysis; Mathematical models.
REN Luchuan . ADVANCE IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR REGIONAL NATURAL DISASTERS[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 1999 , 14(3) : 242 -246 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.03.0242
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