Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change
Received date: 2009-11-24
Revised date: 2009-12-13
Online published: 2010-01-10
On the basis of global climate change facts and the analysis of the national climate change action, identification of a few key issues and debate of different points of view of the current scientific understanding of global climate change and actions has been made. It is pointed that: ①as a start point, the relative reliable and certain scientific facts, as well as the principles of the common but different duty should be taken in order to response to climate change; ②the magnitude of global warming has been overestimated; ③over the past century warming is mainly due to human activities is lack of scientific evidence; ④effects of global warming pros and cons need a concrete analysis of specific problems; ⑤climate predictions does not equal weather forecasting and their uncertainty is very large; ⑥the current action to address global warming should be taken to “adapt the main mitigation supplement” strategy.
CHEN Pan-Qi . Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2010 , 25(1) : 69 -75 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2010.01.0069
[1] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2] 国家发展改革委员会组织编制.中国应对气候变化国家方案[EB/OL]. http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/ 2007-06/04/content_6196300.htm,2007.
[3] 国务院新闻办公室. 中国应对气候变化的政策与行动[EB/OL]. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-10/29/content_1134378.htm,2008.
[4] 杨学祥. 给“全球变暖说”泼点冷水[EB/OL]. http://guancha.gmw.cn/show.aspx?id=402,2006.
[5] Parker D E. Climate:Large-scale warming is not urban[J].Nature,2004,432(7 015): 290.
[6] Peterson T C. Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found[J].Journal of Climate,2003, 16(18): 2 941-2 959.
[7] Jones P D, Groisman P Ya, Coughlan M, et al. Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperatures over land[J].Nature,1990, 347(6 289):169-172.
[8] Huang S, Taniguchi M, Yamano M, et al. Detecting urbanization effects on surface and subsurface thermal environment—A case study of Osaka[J].Science Total Environmental,2009,407(9):3 142- 3 152.
[9] Kato H. A statistical method for separating urban effect trends from observed temperature data and its application to Japanese temperature records[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,1996, 74(5):639-653.
[10] Li Q, Zhang H, Liu X, et al. Urban heat island effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China[J].Theoretical Applied Climatology,2004, 79(3/4):165-174.
[11] Zhou L M, Dickinson R E, Tian Y H,et al. Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the US of America,2004,101(26): 9 540-9 544.
[12] Zhou Yaqing,Ren Guoyu.Identifying and correcting Urban Bias for regional surface air temperature series of North China over period of 1961-2000[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4): 743-753.[周雅清,任国玉.华北地区地表气温观测中城镇化影响的检测和订正[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):743-753.]
[13] Ren Guoyu,Chu Ziying Zhou Yaqing, et al. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4): 701-716.[任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4): 701-716.]
[14] Roger A P S, Matsui T. Should light wind and windy nights have the same temperature trends at individual levels even if the boundary layer averaged heat content change is the same?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005, 32:L21813.
[15] Zhang Xueqin,Peng Lili,Lin Zhaohui.Progress on the projections of future climate change with various emission scenarios[J].Advances in Earth Science,2009,23(2):174-185.[张雪芹,彭莉莉,林朝晖.未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2009,23(2):174-185.]
[16] Wang Fang,Ge Quansheng,Chen Panqin.Uncertainties of temperature observation data in IPCC assessment report[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(7):828-838.[王芳,葛全胜,陈泮勤. IPCC评估报告气温变化观测数据的不确定性分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(7):828-838.]
[17] Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J,et al.GISS analysis of surface temperature change[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1999, 104(D24):30 997-31 022.
[18] Esper J, Cook E R, Schweingruber F H. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability[J].Science,2002, 295(5 563): 2 250-2 253.
[19] Zheng Jingyun,Ge Quansheng,Fang Xiuqi.Seeing the 20th century warming from temperature changes of winter-half-year in Eastern China for the last 2000 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(6): 631-638.[郑景云, 葛全胜, 方修琦. 从中国过去2000年温度变化看20世纪增暖[J].地理学报, 2002, 57(6): 631-638.]
[20] Zheng Jingyun,Wang Shaowu.Assessment on climate change in China for the last 2000 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005, 60(1): 21-31.[郑景云, 王绍武. 中国过去2000 年气候变化的评估[J].地理学报, 2005, 60(1): 21-31.]
[21] Quansheng Ge, Jingyun Zheng, Xiuqi Fang,et al.Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years[J].The Holocene,2003,13(6):933-940.
[22] Moberg A, Sonechkin D M, Holmgren K,et al.Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy data[J].Nature,2005,433(7 026):613-617.
[23] Soon W, Baliunas S. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1 000 years[J].Climate of Research,2003, 23(2): 89-110.
[24] National Research Council of the National Academies. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 years[M/OL]. Washington DC: The National Academies Press. http://www.nap.edu,2006:1-141.
[25] Chen Panqin. Climate change and natural disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996, 5(2):11-17.[陈泮勤.气候变化与自然灾害[J].自然灾害, 1996, 5(2): 11-17.]
[26] Chen Panqin.Possible impacts of global warming on natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(2):95-101.[陈泮勤.全球增暖对自然灾害的可能影响[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):95-101.]
[27] IPCC. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment[C]//Houghton J T, Meira Filho L J, Callader B A, et al,eds. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1990.
[28] IPCC. Climate Change 1995: The science of climate change[C]//Houghton J T, Jenkins C J, Ephraums J J, eds. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1996.
[29] IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis[C]//Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al,eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U K and New York ,NY, USA: Cambridge University Press,2001.
[30] Chen Panqin. Carbon Cycle of Earth System[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2004.[陈泮勤.地球系统碳循环[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.]
[31] Qu Jiansheng,Sun Chengquan,Zhang Zhiqiang.Trends and advances of the global change studies on carbon cycle[J].Advances in Earth Science,2003,18(6):980-987.[曲建升,孙成权,张志强,等.全球变化科学中的碳循环研究进展与趋向[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(6):980-987.]
[32] Chen Panqin, Wang Xiaoke, Wang Limao. Carbon Budget and Sink-increasing Strategy for China Land Ecosystem[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2008:4-5.[陈泮勤,王效科,王礼茂.中国陆地生态系统碳收支与增汇对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:4-5.]
/
〈 |
|
〉 |