The Projection of Maize Yield in China under Climate Change Scenarios
Received date: 2008-03-16
Revised date: 2008-08-26
Online published: 2008-10-10
Climate change and its impacts have brought great concern. With its importance for national food and feed supply, it is necessary to examine the potential impacts of climate change on maize production in China. We assessed China′s maize production at 50 km 50 km grid scale using regional climate model and CERES-Maize crop model. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with present climate (BS) (1961-1990), and future (2011-2100) under two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2). Yields were estimated to decrease steadily, resulting in significant damages in production value of maize planting. The decrease in yield was larger with A2 than B2. CO2 fertilization effects offset the negative impacts, particularly for rain-fed maize. Climate variability was projected to increase; leading to rising possibilities of low yields, and increased variability of annual production. Adaptation was not be included in this study. Therefore, the projected damages might be overestimated. Uncertainties existed in various scales, which need to be addressed in future study.
Key words： Climate change scenarios; Maize yield; CERES-Maize model; A2, B2.
YANG Jie , XU Yinlong , LIN Erda , XIONG Wei . The Projection of Maize Yield in China under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2008 , 23(10) : 1092 -1101 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2008.10.1092
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