Advances in Earth Science ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 1248-1256.

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province

Wang Lianxi 1, 2, Liu Jing 3, Li Qi 1, 2, Qian Rui 1, 2   

  1. 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environmental Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,China; 2. School of Environment Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,China; 3. Ningxia Key Laboratory for Preventing and Reducing Meteorological Disaster, Yinchuan 750002,China
  • Received:2013-07-18 Online:2013-11-10 Published:2013-11-10

Wang Lianxi,Liu Jing,Li Qi,Qian Rui,. Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(11): 1248-1256.

Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in riceplanting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERESRice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERESRice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heatresistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province.
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