Advances in Earth Science

   

Responses of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity to Climate Change in China

Wang Ziting1, Zhou Guangsheng1, 2, 3   

  1. (1. School of Earth Science and Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Hebei Gucheng Agricultural Meteorology National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
  • About author:Wang Ziting, research area includes agrometeorology. E-mail: 2253729141@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42130514), the Basic Research Fund (Grant No. 2024Z001); Science and Technology Development Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No.2025KJ007).

Wang Ziting, Zhou Guangsheng. Responses of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity to Climate Change in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.066.

Abstract:Existing assessments of agricultural adaptability to climate change have mainly focused on crop yields or agricultural output, while comprehensive assessments based on total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture are relatively lacking, limiting our overall understanding of how climate change affects agricultural production systems. This study takes China’s crop farming as object, and creates province-level exposure variables for temperature, precipitation, and extreme climate based on actual growth stages of crops and the spatial exposure of farmland by using the panel data from 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2023, combined with high-resolution meteorological data, farmland masks, and NDVI-based phenology information. Moreover, it examines how China's total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in agriculture responds to year-to-year climate changes using a two-way fixed effects model. The results show that the growth rate of China's agricultural TFP has a fairly stable positive relationship with temperature changes during crop growth stages, while it has an inverted U-shaped relationship with precipitation changes during the same stages. The responses of China’s agricultural TFP growth rate to climate change very differently to climate change depending on the region, and temperature shocks have a delayed effect. The relationship of agricultural TFP growth rate is significantly negative with the extreme-heat indicator, while it is less stable with the continuous drought and extreme precipitation. These findings provide the evidence on statistical relationships between crop growth-stage climate exposure and agricultural TFP growth rate, and may serve as a scientific reference for regional agricultural climate-risk assessment and future adaptation measure-makers.
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