Advances in Earth Science

   

High-Resolution Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variations in Global Ionic Fluxes from Rock Chemical Weathering During 1980-2100

Jiang Yu, Zhao Cuiwei*   

  1. (School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China)
  • About author:Jiang Yu, research area includes weathered ecology. E-mail: jy2415620514@126.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41471032); Curriculum System Reform Project of the Department of Education of Guizhou Province (Grant No. 2021051).

Jiang Yu, Zhao Cuiwei. High-Resolution Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variations in Global Ionic Fluxes from Rock Chemical Weathering During 1980-2100[J]. Advances in Earth Science, DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.015.

Riverine chemical weathering is a vital part of the global biogeochemical cycle, and its fluctuations are key to fully understanding and evaluat the effects of climate change on the Earth system. However, large uncertainties still remain regarding the long-term evolution of chemical weathering and its spatial responses under future climate scenarios. In this study, the Lechuga-Crespo model was integrated with the Random Forest algorithm, and future climate scenario datasets from CMIP6 were employed to systematically assess the long-term dynamic variations and geographical characteristics of global ionic fluxes from rock chemical weathering (ICWR), including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, Alkalinity (HCO-3, CO23-), SO24- and Cl-, during the period from 1980 to 2100. The results reveal that global ICWR exhibits significant variations under different climate scenarios. In particular, under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the global total ICWR is projected to increase substantially. By the end of the 21st century, the global total ionic flux is expected to rise by approximately 35% compared with the historical baseline, reaching about 6.6×109 Mg/a in 2100. From a spatial perspective, Southeast Asia, the South Asian subcontinent, and sub-Saharan Africa are identified as the core highvalue regions of future chemical weathering intensity, indicating strong regional heterogeneity in the response of weathering processes to climate change. Among the climatic drivers, precipitation is determined to be the most influential factor controlling ICWR variability, accounting for approximately 32%~33% of the overall contribution, with nearly 99% of the global land area exhibiting a significant increasing trend associated with precipitation changes. Further investigation into weathering mechanisms shows that the differential responses of various lithologies to climate change are primarily governed by their mineral composition and structural properties. Both carbonate rocks and silicate clastic rocks exhibit accelerated weathering trends under the context of global warming, highlighting the important role of lithological characteristics in regulating chemical weathering intensity. By introducing long-term dynamic simulations and future scenario projections and integrating multiple climatic drivers, this study provides a more systematic and comprehensive assessment of future ICWR changes. The multidimensional analytical framework established here offers a robust scientific basis for understanding the role of rock chemical weathering in the global carbon cycle and its environmental responses to ongoing climate change.
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