Advances in Earth Science ›› 2024, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 837-846. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.058

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Analysis of the Features of Antarctic Ice Shelf Calving Based on Machine Learning and Dynamic Processes

Qingyun LONG 1( ), Tong ZHANG 1( ), Che WANG 2, Tao CHE 3, Cunde XIAO 1   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2.Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
    3.Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2024-04-09 Revised:2024-07-13 Online:2024-08-10 Published:2024-09-10
  • Contact: Tong ZHANG E-mail:qingyun@mail.bnu.edu.cn;tzhang@bnu.edu.cn
  • About author:LONG Qingyun, Master student, research area includes the study of ice sheets. E-mail: qingyun@mail.bnu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271133);The International Cooperation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(121362KYSB20210024)

Qingyun LONG, Tong ZHANG, Che WANG, Tao CHE, Cunde XIAO. Analysis of the Features of Antarctic Ice Shelf Calving Based on Machine Learning and Dynamic Processes[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2024, 39(8): 837-846.

Ice-shelf calving has a direct impact on Antarctic mass loss and dynamic processes, and it is particularly important to study its spatial characteristics, environmental conditions, and controlling factors. Based on the machine learning algorithms and ice sheet dynamic models, utilizing remote sensing data on Antarctic ice shelf calving from 2005 to 2020, ice shelf surface fracture data, ice shelf buttressing value, spatial distribution data of Antarctic ice shelf damage, and basal melting data, combined with machine learning binary classification, the importance of 18 characteristic elements influencing ice shelf dynamic processes was analyzed, and the accuracy of seven different machine learning algorithms was calculated. The results indicate that the random forest algorithm achieves the highest accuracy in the binary classification of ice shelf calving and that surface meltwater has a significant impact on ice shelf collapse, indicating the feasibility of using both the intrinsic dynamics of the ice shelf and external environmental factors for prediction. Subsequent efforts should further couple dynamic models with machine learning algorithms and establish corresponding numerical modeling systems to depict ice-shelf calving events with higher spatiotemporal resolutions in terms of intensity and extent.

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