Advances in Earth Science ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 1211-1222. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.096
Next Articles
Li GAO 1( ), Jiawen ZHENG 2, Zuosen ZHAO 1 , 3, Yuelin LUO 1 , 3, Pengfei REN 4, Guohua YAO 1 , 3
Received:
Revised:
Online:
Published:
About author:
Supported by:
Li GAO, Jiawen ZHENG, Zuosen ZHAO, Yuelin LUO, Pengfei REN, Guohua YAO. Research, Development, and Application of the Unified Post-Processing System for the CMA-GEPS/REPS Ensemble Prediction[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2022, 37(12): 1211-1222.
Ensemble prediction, one of the most rapid developments in numerical weather prediction, has presently become a vital basis for accurate forecasting and assessment of product abundance. In the past three decades, accompanied by the rapid developments in prediction research and techniques, a significant progress has been made in operational technology and systems for ensemble prediction. As the output end of the information facing downstream users in the ensemble prediction chain, the post-processing system has been an integrated platform for the generation of numerous ensemble data, the unification of product-making functions, and the intensification of multilevel forecasting approaches and techniques. In this study, a comprehensive local-to-global review was first conducted for the historical development, current stage, and future direction of the post-processing system and technology for ensemble prediction. Second, the following seven main functions of the post-processing system were summarized: ① Standardized output and distribution of ensemble data; ② Calculation of ensemble mean and spread statistics; ③ Analysis of synoptic and climatological diagnostics; ④ Generation and issuance of deterministic and stochastic ensemble prediction products; ⑤ Extraction and interpretation of big ensemble data and information; ⑥ Calibration and improvement of deterministic and stochastic ensemble forecasts; ⑦ User-customized product services and visualization. Finally, the unified post-processing system in the China Meteorological Administration-Global Ensemble Prediction System/Regional Ensemble Prediction System (CMA-GEPS/REPS) was discussed in terms of the above main functions. The focus was on finding ways to make better use of the big ensemble data and information from the CMA-GEPS/REPS real-time forecasts to study. Further, the intent was to develop a variety of new ensemble products, particularly including the extreme forecast index, Madden-Julian oscillation, western-Pacific subtropical high, and south-Asian high, as well as learning to apply them to realistic operational forecasting. Overall, the post-processing technique is becoming a predominant research and development direction, building on the advantages of ensemble prediction ranging from high forecast accuracy to actionable insights with significant social, environmental, and economic benefits.