BACK ANALYZING PARAMETERS AND PREDICTING TREND OF SARS TRANSMISSION

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.06.0925

Advances in Earth Science ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (6): 925-930. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.06.0925

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BACK ANALYZING PARAMETERS AND PREDICTING TREND OF SARS TRANSMISSION

HAN Wei-guo ^{1, 2}, WANG Jin-feng ¹, LIU Xu-hua ^{1, 2}

1.State Key Laboratory of Resources & Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China

Received:2004-01-29 Revised:2004-05-24 Online:2004-12-20 Published:2004-12-01

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HAN Wei-guo, WANG Jin-feng, LIU Xu-hua. BACK ANALYZING PARAMETERS AND PREDICTING TREND OF SARS TRANSMISSION[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2004, 19(6): 925-930.

This paper uses SIR model to back-analyze the parameters of SARS transmission based on the data released by the health authorities of Beijing and Hong Kong, we get the important parameters such as the peak period, the hospitalized cases and the removed parameter. It can be seen that these parameters of the model allow for better understanding of the SARS transmission because the result fits the actual data approximately. As a result, SIR model could be used to fit data, predict trend and simulate process of SARS transmission.

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