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地球科学进展  2009, Vol. 24 Issue (1): 42-48    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.01.0042
研究论文     
从风险认知到风险数量化分类
李 宁1,张 鹏1*,胡爱军1,2,刘雪琴1,崔维佳1,孟志强1,史培军1
1.民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学,北京 100875;
2. 湖南省气象局, 湖南 长沙 410007
Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification
Li Ning1,Zhang Peng1,Hu Aijun1,2,Liu Xueqin1,Cui Weijia1,Meng Zhiqiang1,Shi Peijun1
1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha  410007, China
 全文: PDF(1101 KB)  
摘要:

伴随着社会经济和科技的发展,对风险问题的研究成为风险管理的重要一环,风险分类是进行风险保险、风险管理以及建立风险信息数据库的基础。拟从风险认知的角度,通过人们目前比较关注的41种风险构建了风险0-1判断矩阵,用Hayashi数量化理论III,通过Matlab软件,对构建的0-1风险矩阵进行判断计算,得到风险分类图。通过验证,用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ对风险的聚类可以取得很好的类别区分效果,类内的风险种类组合与现有的几种政策管理分类框架中的风险类别组合吻合;该方法为风险的数值分类提供了新的思路。

关键词: Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ风险分类风险认知风险管理    
Abstract:

With the development of societal economy and technology, a lot of uncertainty risks become one of the important factors which disturb the human life. Thus, the study of risk problem has become an important part of the risk management. Risk classification is the basis of risk insurance, risk management, and the establishment of risk information database. The objective of this paper is to classify the risk affecting human life from the respective of risk perception. It builds the 0-1 judgment matrix by means of analysis of the current 41 kinds and 6 categories of risks that people are concerned about. Using the Hayashi′ qualification theory Ⅲ, through the Matlab software, to judge the structure of 0-1 risk matrix is judged and calculated to gain the scatter diagram of different risks. By the transform study of the risk scatter diagram we find that clustering the risk through Hayashi′ qualification theory Ⅲ can achieve good results. The risk cluster is objective; the classification result is not affected by transform of the risk matrix in different risk kind and category.

Key words: Hayashi&prime    qualification theory III    Risk classification    Risk perception    Risk management.
收稿日期: 2008-06-23 出版日期: 2009-01-10
:  X43  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“沙尘暴源地下垫面沙尘致灾因子脆弱性评估及风险贡献”(编号:40771008);“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目“综合风险防范关键技术研究与示范——综合风险分类与评价技术”(编号:2006BAD20B01)资助.

通讯作者: 张鹏(1981-),男,内蒙古包头人,硕士研究生,主要从事自然灾害风险研究.     E-mail: zhangpeng@ires.cn
作者简介: 李宁(1958-),女,江苏镇江人,教授,主要从事自然灾害研究. E-mail:ningli@ires.cn
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引用本文:

李宁,张鹏,胡爱军,刘雪琴,崔维佳,孟志强,史培军. 从风险认知到风险数量化分类[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(1): 42-48.

Li Ning,Zhang Peng,Hu Aijun,Liu Xueqin,Cui Weijia,Meng Zhiqiang,Shi Peijun. Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(1): 42-48.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.01.0042        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2009/V24/I1/42

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