地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.042.

   

全球地表气温对CO2浓度变化的非对称响应: 能量平衡模式研究
屈侠 1,2,黄刚 2   
  1. (1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京 100029;2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029)
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42141019,42175055)资助.

Asymmetric Response of Global Temperature to Changes in CO2 Concentration: Energy Balance Models Study

QU Xia 1,2, HUANG Gang 2   

  1. (1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)
  • About author:QU Xia, Associated professor, research areas include climate dynamics under climate change. E-mail: quxia@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42141019, 42175055).
气候系统属性可影响二氧化碳(CO2)浓度变化下全球地表气温演变的非对称性,但目前仍 不清楚哪些属性的贡献相对关键。因耦合模式比较计划第六阶段模式试验样本不足,基于45 个 CMIP6 模式数据,逐一构建了快速、再现能力理想的两层能量模型,共开展了391 组试验。该模试 验结果显示,在对称的CO 2浓度上升和下降演变下,平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传 输系数对全球地表气温演变的非对称性起主要贡献,它们主要通过改变CO 2浓度下降期全球地表 气温达峰后的降温速度来实现。因此,加深对气候系统平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海 热传输系数的理解,有助于人类更科学地实现巴黎协定目标。
The climate system properties influence the asymmetry in global surface air temperature evolution under changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, but it remains unclear which properties contribute relatively more significantly. Due to the insufficient samples from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments, present study utilized output of 45 CMIP6 models and constructed 391 sets of experiments using a two-layer energy balance model that is both rapid and reproducible. The experimental results demonstrate that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), ocean heat capacity, and coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean play primary roles in the asymmetry of Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) evolution under fixed CO 2 concentration rise and fall. They mainly achieve this by altering the cooling rate after the peak of GSAT during the CO 2 concentration decline period. Therefore, a deeper understanding of the climate system’s ECS, ocean heat capacity, and coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean may facilitate a more scientifically realistic achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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[1] 屈侠, 黄刚. 全球地表气温对 CO2 浓度变化的非对称响应:能量平衡模式研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2024, 39(6): 632-646.
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