First author:Wang Xi(1983-), female, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, Assistant professor. Research areas include natural disaster damage & loss assessment and disaster relief. E-mail:wangxi@ndrcc.gov.cn
In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.
Keywords:Large-scale natural disaster
;
Loss statistics
;
PDNA
;
DaLA
;
HAZUS-MH.
WangXi, ZhouHongjian. Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2018, 33(9): 914-921 https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.09.0914
本文挑选了国际上运行较为成熟的破坏、损失、需求评估(The Damage Loss and Needs Assessment,DaLA)[7]、美国国家多灾种评估系统(The Hazards United States-Multi-Hazard,HAZUS-MH)[8]、澳大利亚应急管理署灾害损失评估(Emergency Management Australia-Disaster Loss Assessment,EMA-DLA)[9]、灾害社会经济与环境影响评估(Estimating the socio-economic and environment effects of disasters,ECLAC)[10]和灾后需求评估(Post Disaster Needs Assessment,PDNA)[11,2]等五大体系,梳理分析各体系的内容与指标特点及与中国《统计制度》的异同,提出中国重特大自然灾害损失统计与评估体系的发展展望,旨在为丰富和完善《统计制度》的内容与技术体系,更好地与国际接轨提供依据。
2 国外5大灾害损失统计与评估体系分析
2.1 各体系的基本内容
DaLA体系由世界银行全球减灾与恢复部(Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery,GFDRR)起草,其评估结果有2个独特的潜在用途:短期内,确定政府对灾害直接后果的干预,即减少人们所受的痛苦并启动经济恢复;从中长期来看,评估可用于确定全面恢复重建所必需的财政需求;此外,此系统还为确定灾害对大部分受灾地区和经济行业造成的后果和影响,以及整体经济的运行状况提供信息[7]。
ECLAC体系由联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会(Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean, UN/ECLAC)提出的一套“灾害的社会经济与环境影响评估”方法,其创新理念在于将自然灾害损失评估与国家(或区域)长期的社会经济发展规划相结合,将灾害风险管理与国家的宏观经济决策有机结合,主要评估直接破坏、间接损失、宏观经济影响等三大方面[10]。
PDNA体系由联合国开发计划署(The United Nations Development Program, UNDP)牵头组织的灾后早期恢复联合工作组(Cluster Working Group on Early Recovery)与世界银行、欧洲委员会等合作研究建立,主要由4个部分组成:灾情基线信息,灾害破坏与损失、灾害影响和恢复重建需求与策略;也就是说PDNA是在掌握详尽的灾前基线信息和灾后信息的基础上,开展灾害破坏与损失统计与评估,并对灾害影响(宏观经济影响、人与社会发展影响)进行评估,在此基础上评估灾后需求,包括恢复需求和重建需求,为灾区开展恢复重建工作提供直接指导[11,12]。
International comparisons of large-scale natural disasters damage and loss assessment: Based on “statistical system of large-scale natural disasters” and PDNA
From the perspective of leading authors of “Statistical system of largescale natural disasters damage and loss” (SS-LNDD&L), this article elaborated on the main contents, scientific issues and research fields in the future of the SS-LNDD&L. SS-LNDD&L defined the starting conditions, forms of organization, the statistical scope, main contents and time limit, which had the scientific, comprehensive, practical and dynamic features. There were five new advances in statistics of large-scale natural disaster damage and loss based on the SS-LNDD&L. ①SS-LNDD&L had the coordination with relevant national standards of “Classification and code for natural disaster bearing bodies”, and “Classification and code for national industry” and so on. ②SS-LNDD&L was improved by the several large-scale disasters, such as the Wenchuan Earthquake, Yushu Earthquake, Zhouqu flash flood and landslide, Lushan Earthquake and some tables and indices were added, deleted or revised based on the local households’experiences. ③SS-LNDD&L was established based on many advices and suggestion from more than 30 agencies of National Disaster Reduction Committee and some tables and indices were recommended by the agencies. ④SS-LNDD&L could be applied to many sudden disasters, such as the flood, typhoon, earthquake, landslide, snow, tsunami and so on. Especially, multi-hazards and disaster chain’s damage and loss also could be covered by this statistics system. ⑤SS-LNDD&L was an important and practical support material for post disaster restoration and reconstruction planning; for example, the tables and indices from the SS-LNDD&L were used in the “The State Overall Planning for Post-Wenchuan Earthquake Restoration and Reconstruction” and “Overall Planning for Post-Lushan Earthquake Restoration and Reconstructio”.Otherwise, SS-LNDD&L provided legal basis for carrying out comprehensive assessment of large-scale natural disaster loss and will have great potential to carry out the special in-depth studies of disaster related industry sectors and lead the local relevant departments to establish the correlative statistical systems.
[15]
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HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology II: Damage and loss assessment
... 本文挑选了国际上运行较为成熟的破坏、损失、需求评估(The Damage Loss and Needs Assessment,DaLA)[7]、美国国家多灾种评估系统(The Hazards United States-Multi-Hazard,HAZUS-MH)[8]、澳大利亚应急管理署灾害损失评估(Emergency Management Australia-Disaster Loss Assessment,EMA-DLA)[9]、灾害社会经济与环境影响评估(Estimating the socio-economic and environment effects of disasters,ECLAC)[10]和灾后需求评估(Post Disaster Needs Assessment,PDNA)[11,2]等五大体系,梳理分析各体系的内容与指标特点及与中国《统计制度》的异同,提出中国重特大自然灾害损失统计与评估体系的发展展望,旨在为丰富和完善《统计制度》的内容与技术体系,更好地与国际接轨提供依据. ...
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2
2008
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... ECLAC体系由联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会(Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean, UN/ECLAC)提出的一套“灾害的社会经济与环境影响评估”方法,其创新理念在于将自然灾害损失评估与国家(或区域)长期的社会经济发展规划相结合,将灾害风险管理与国家的宏观经济决策有机结合,主要评估直接破坏、间接损失、宏观经济影响等三大方面[10]. ...
... 本文挑选了国际上运行较为成熟的破坏、损失、需求评估(The Damage Loss and Needs Assessment,DaLA)[7]、美国国家多灾种评估系统(The Hazards United States-Multi-Hazard,HAZUS-MH)[8]、澳大利亚应急管理署灾害损失评估(Emergency Management Australia-Disaster Loss Assessment,EMA-DLA)[9]、灾害社会经济与环境影响评估(Estimating the socio-economic and environment effects of disasters,ECLAC)[10]和灾后需求评估(Post Disaster Needs Assessment,PDNA)[11,2]等五大体系,梳理分析各体系的内容与指标特点及与中国《统计制度》的异同,提出中国重特大自然灾害损失统计与评估体系的发展展望,旨在为丰富和完善《统计制度》的内容与技术体系,更好地与国际接轨提供依据. ...
... PDNA体系由联合国开发计划署(The United Nations Development Program, UNDP)牵头组织的灾后早期恢复联合工作组(Cluster Working Group on Early Recovery)与世界银行、欧洲委员会等合作研究建立,主要由4个部分组成:灾情基线信息,灾害破坏与损失、灾害影响和恢复重建需求与策略;也就是说PDNA是在掌握详尽的灾前基线信息和灾后信息的基础上,开展灾害破坏与损失统计与评估,并对灾害影响(宏观经济影响、人与社会发展影响)进行评估,在此基础上评估灾后需求,包括恢复需求和重建需求,为灾区开展恢复重建工作提供直接指导[11,12]. ...
... PDNA体系由联合国开发计划署(The United Nations Development Program, UNDP)牵头组织的灾后早期恢复联合工作组(Cluster Working Group on Early Recovery)与世界银行、欧洲委员会等合作研究建立,主要由4个部分组成:灾情基线信息,灾害破坏与损失、灾害影响和恢复重建需求与策略;也就是说PDNA是在掌握详尽的灾前基线信息和灾后信息的基础上,开展灾害破坏与损失统计与评估,并对灾害影响(宏观经济影响、人与社会发展影响)进行评估,在此基础上评估灾后需求,包括恢复需求和重建需求,为灾区开展恢复重建工作提供直接指导[11,12]. ...
... PDNA体系由联合国开发计划署(The United Nations Development Program, UNDP)牵头组织的灾后早期恢复联合工作组(Cluster Working Group on Early Recovery)与世界银行、欧洲委员会等合作研究建立,主要由4个部分组成:灾情基线信息,灾害破坏与损失、灾害影响和恢复重建需求与策略;也就是说PDNA是在掌握详尽的灾前基线信息和灾后信息的基础上,开展灾害破坏与损失统计与评估,并对灾害影响(宏观经济影响、人与社会发展影响)进行评估,在此基础上评估灾后需求,包括恢复需求和重建需求,为灾区开展恢复重建工作提供直接指导[11,12]. ...