U.S. Study Says Global Sea Level Will Rise 15 Meters by 2300

      On October 3, 2018, researchers from Rutgers University in the United States published an article titled "Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability" online in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources. The study shows that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the global average sea level will rise by nearly 2.44 meters by 2100 and about 15.24 meters by 2300.

      Since the beginning of this century, the global average sea level has risen by about 6 centimeters. Approximately 11% of the world's population of about 7.6 billion lives in areas less than 10 meters above sea level. The rise in sea level poses a major risk to the economy, society, infrastructure, and ecosystems of coastal areas around the world. The researchers said that through exploration and research, we have gained a certain understanding of past and present sea-level changes, but there are still many uncertainties. Defining the boundaries between what is known and what is uncertain is a key factor in managing the hazards caused by sea-level rise to coastal areas around the world.

      The rise in sea level varies with location and time. Scientists have developed a series of methods to reconstruct past sea-level changes and predict their future trends. Although different prediction methods are used, the future trends of sea level in the next few decades are consistent: from 2000 to 2050, there is a high probability that the global average sea level will rise between 1.8 and 3 meters, but it will not exceed 5.5 meters. After 2050, the predictions are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas emissions and methods for predicting sea-level changes.

      The researchers used the research cases of Atlantic City in New Jersey and Singapore to discuss the impact of methods for reconstructing past sea-level changes on future predictions of sea-level changes around the world. They also further discussed the scientific methods for predicting sea level and the new problems that may arise in sea-level research due to accurate predictions. The study claims that a large part of the global sea-level rise in the 20th century was caused by human-induced global warming.

      (Compiled by Song Rong and Niu Yibo, Lanzhou Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

      Original Title: Global sea level could rise 50 feet by 2300, study says

      Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181008083456.htm