Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the Last 500 Years
Received date: 2005-09-26
Revised date: 2006-01-20
Online published: 2006-04-15
Climatic simulation experiments of long-term integration since the Little Ice Age by the use of the global atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model ECHO-G are introduced in this paper. The simulated temperature series were compared with the reconstructed temperature of China. There were two modeling experiments: control run and forced run. First, modeling result was compared with the observed data for examining the model ability of simulating the climate of China. Then the simulated temperature series were compared with the reconstructed 500-year temperature series in 10 regions of China. The analysis of mean value, variance and EOF showed that for the period from 1550 to the present, there are good correlations between the simulated and reconstructed series except for the regions of the Xinjiang, the Northeastern and the Southwestern China. The correlation confidences are greater than 90% for this period. For the period since 1760, most regions have good correlations with more than 90% confidence levels between simulations and reconstructions except for south, northwest, and southwest of China. This indicates that the climate model ECHO-G can simulate the temperature characteristics of the trends and low frequency changes in most regions of China, and the forcing factors used in the simulations are the main controlling factors for climate change during the last 500 years. However, the spatial differences of simulated temperature anomalies are less than that of reconstructions, and for shorter term variations, such as decadal and interannual changes, the model results are not consistent with the reconstructions very well. The errors may come from both the simulation and the reconstruction. For the reconstruction, the representation, accuracy, and reliability of proxies need to be improved. And for the simulation, more accurate forcing series and more forcing factors, such as land surface vegetation and industrial aerosols need to be drawn into the modeling. If much more work both in simulation and reconstruction are done, the evolution and mechanisms of Chinese historical climate can be deeply understood.
Key words： Climate; Simulation; Reconstruction; Little Ice Age; China.
Liu Jian,Chen Xing,Hans von Storch,Eduardo Zorita,Wang Sumin . Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the Last 500 Years[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2006 , 21(4) : 401 -408 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.04.0401
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