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Advances in Earth Science >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 3: 221 - 227

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.016

Glacial Lake Change and Outburst Risk Assessment on the Asian Water Tower

  • Tandong YAO ,
  • Taigang ZHANG ,
  • Weicai WANG ,
  • Guoqing ZHANG ,
  • Shiyin LIU ,
  • Baosheng AN
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  • 1.Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    3.Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
YAO Tandong, Member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, research areas include glaciers and environmental change. E-mail: tdyao@itpcas.ac.cn

Received date: 2024-12-25

  Revised date: 2025-01-22

  Online published: 2025-05-07

Supported by

the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) Program(2024QZKK0400)

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Abstract

Abnormal atmospheric warming on the Tibetan Plateau has caused an imbalance in Asian Water Towers, leading to widespread and frequent cryospheric disasters such as ice avalanches and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These events pose a significant threat to life and infrastructure downstream, impacting regional socioeconomic development. Our recent studies, conducted during the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program, utilized field observations, remote sensing, and modeling to examine glacial lakes and GLOFs on the Tibetan Plateau. As of 2020, we had identified 14 310 glacial lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, covering an area of 1 148.3 km2, along with a 20.4% increase in lake number and a 20.2% increase in lake area since 1990. Hazard and risk assessments revealed 1 256 glacial lakes with high or very high hazard levels, including 182 glacial lakes with high or very high-risk levels. These high-risk glacial lakes pose severe GLOF threats to communities and infrastructure downstream. At the regional scale, the eastern Himalayan and southeastern Tibetan regions exhibit the highest number of glacial lakes, the largest area expansion, the most destructive GLOF hazards, and the highest concentration of very high hazard level and very high-risk level glacial lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. In terms of administrative regions, Shigatse City, Nyingchi City, and Shannan City in the Tibet Autonomous Region have the highest distribution of very high-risk level glacial lakes. Future research should focus on precise GLOF assessments, the development of monitoring and early warning systems, and strategies for adapting to GLOF disaster chains and transboundary threats.

Key words： Glacial lake; Glacial lake outburst flood; Risk assessment of outburst; Monitoring and early warning; Asian Water Tower.

Cite this article

Tandong YAO , Taigang ZHANG , Weicai WANG , Guoqing ZHANG , Shiyin LIU , Baosheng AN . Glacial Lake Change and Outburst Risk Assessment on the Asian Water Tower[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2025 , 40(3) : 221 -227 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.016

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